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Post by mhbruin on Jun 24, 2020 10:26:29 GMT -8
You probably see statements like this. "After all, Michael Dukakis was up by 17 points in mid-July of 1988." It is the poster child of not trusting early polls. (Ironically, one of the people Dukakis beat for the nomination was Joe Biden.) Here is the polling for that race. There are a number of differences between this year and 1988. 1) The big lead was the result of a post-convention bounce. 2) While there was no incumbent in 1988, Bush ran as a continuation of the Reagan administration. And Reagan was popular with a 57% approval rating on election day. Trump's approval rating is stuck in the low 40's. 3) In 1988, the incumbent party won with a good economy. In 2020, the incumbent is running with a bad economy. 4) In 1988, the polls were volatile. This year the polls are remarkably stable with few people undecided. 5) The 17% lead was an outlier. There are many high-quality polls showing Biden with a big lead. And if you think a sudden economic recovery will rescue Trump, hid approval was bad when the economy was good. And there is no economic miracle coming, particularly when the extra unemployment benefits end next month. 0
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dsc
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Post by dsc on Jun 24, 2020 10:54:20 GMT -8
Another big difference. Dukakis was a new fresh face to the American public outside the state of Massachusetts. People like fresh faces. Biden has been around for a long time, so most people already have firm opinions about him.
As popular as Reagan was, party fatigue was real despite Reagan's popularity. I think it played a factor for Gore, Nixon in 60, and Hillary even though the outgoing two term presidents were very popular even though the economy was strong. Dukakis beat himself. And oh, Lee Atwater's smear campaign played a factor too.
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Post by northbruin40 on Jun 24, 2020 11:09:31 GMT -8
The actual margin was 7.8% The last two polls appear to be spurious with an exaggerated lead for Bush. I suspect the contest was actually quite stable by September. The "big move" appears to have occurred from late July to early September. I suspect that was "real" in that it was supported by the multiple polls before and after.
I wonder if that's a recurring pattern where by the end of Summer the contest is well-defined and big changes do not occur?
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 24, 2020 12:32:14 GMT -8
Traditionally, big game changers are the conventions (although bounces are shot-lived) and debates. Recently convention bounces are smaller since there is less network coverage and lower ratings. However, this seems like a very stable election.
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dsc
Resident Member
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Post by dsc on Jun 24, 2020 12:46:36 GMT -8
My Republican friends honestly believe Trump is going to mop the floor with Biden in debates and that Biden has signs of dementia. I have been looking at video clips of his gaffes. Most seem like innocent mistakes. Do they really believe Trump is going to kill Biden with his word salads?
I suppose one good thing is low expectations for Biden. Hillary was the one who went in with high expectations and landed very few punches if any. Trump is never going to debate anyone in good faith, so how is he going to kill anyone in a debate?
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Post by northbruin40 on Jun 24, 2020 13:12:33 GMT -8
My Republican friends honestly believe Trump is going to mop the floor with Biden in debates and that Biden has signs of dementia. I have been looking at video clips of his gaffes. Most seem like innocent mistakes. Do they really believe Trump is going to kill Biden with his word salads? I suppose one good thing is low expectations for Biden. Hillary was the one who went in with high expectations and landed very few punches if any. Trump is never going to debate anyone in good faith, so how is he going to kill anyone in a debate? I suppose that's another way Trump politics are different than classical politics. The standard way is build up your opponent prior to the debate so that it will look like a letdown in the actuality, and that "Gosh, my candidate held serve" is a "victory" message. But the Trumpers see politics as a political smackdown where you don't actually listen to what the opponent says, and it's measured by the sleekness of you insults.
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Post by grant73 on Jun 24, 2020 16:10:33 GMT -8
How many of us, who are old enough, DON'T remember that idiotic cartoon-like image of Dukakis' scrawny head and neck poking from the top of an army tank in a leather helmet looking like an anthropomorphic Snoopy?
The architect of that one commercial should have been guillotined.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 24, 2020 16:53:10 GMT -8
The other ad that killed Dukakis was Willie Horton, who raped and murdered a woman while out on a prison furlough. The ad with his picture was run by a PAC, not the Bush campaign, but Bush is connected to Willie Horton anyway. Bush ran the revolving door ad, which showed criminals of all races.
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Post by Floppy Johnson on Jun 24, 2020 21:18:29 GMT -8
How many of us, who are old enough, DON'T remember that idiotic cartoon-like image of Dukakis' scrawny head and neck poking from the top of an army tank in a leather helmet looking like an anthropomorphic Snoopy? The architect of that one commercial should have been guillotined. It wasn't a Dukakis commercial. He was at a military base and, as I recall, his host sort of goaded him into riding in the tank and wearing the helmet. I heard an interview a long time ago, where his handler that was onsite called a higher up and basically said "we're f*cked." It was the Pubs that ran the ads with Dukakis in the tank. The irony is that Dukakis was all about building up the military - Bush campaigned on cutting the military and relying on the nuclear deterrent. I saw a reference to the Willie Horton ad. That was Lee Atwater's baby. This stuff was long ago, so I had to look it up, but on a quick search, an article said that Atwater was Herbert's campaign manager. It was an "outside ad" but Atwater said "I 'would strip the bark off the little bastard' and 'make Willie Horton his running mate.' "https://www.nytimes.com/1991/01/13/us/gravely-ill-atwater-offers-apology.html Also of note Atwater and Karl Rove were buddies who came up in the political system together: www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/campaigns/wh2000/stories/rove072399.htm
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 25, 2020 6:44:55 GMT -8
There is no question that many in the campaign loved the Willie Horton ad, while they claimed they had nothing to do with it. However, it is still part pf Bush 41's legacy.
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Post by Floppy Johnson on Jun 25, 2020 16:14:57 GMT -8
There is no question that many in the campaign loved the Willie Horton ad, while they claimed they had nothing to do with it. However, it is still part pf Bush 41's legacy. absolutely. Atwater was Bush's campaign manager and vowed to may Willie Horton Dukakis' running mate.
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Post by andyh64000 on Jun 25, 2020 16:31:02 GMT -8
So this was my first election and I voted for Bush. I didn't tell my dad or he would have probably cut me off, but I just didn't see Dukakis as Presidential. I didn't like Bush much either but he seemed decent and I figured he was the safer pick.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 25, 2020 17:07:49 GMT -8
So this was my first election and I voted for Bush. I didn't tell my dad or he would have probably cut me off, but I just didn't see Dukakis as Presidential. I didn't like Bush much either but he seemed decent and I figured he was the safer pick. I'm a life-long Democrat, but I think he did a pretty good job. He was a better President than politician.
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Post by grant73 on Jun 25, 2020 17:32:04 GMT -8
H.W. seems like he was a compassionate, ethical, and empathetic human being; so remarkable for an ex-operative or at least manager in the CIA; his wartime exploits seemed quite brave and selfless too. And I am a lifelong Dem myself.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 25, 2020 17:44:54 GMT -8
He was CIA Director, but never an officer (unless it was so covert that we still don't know about it). He seemed to like being a diplomat the most.
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