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Post by mhbruin on Jun 14, 2020 12:18:54 GMT -8
Do the Never-Trumpers return and retake control? Or does the white evangelical base keep control?
Given the demographic, it seems like political suicide to stay on the present course. OTOH, the base still controls the primaries, Fox News, Drudge, etc aren't going away, and Trump will likely continue to get a ton of coverage.
I think it stays the party of Trump. And it shrinks.
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hasben
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Post by hasben on Jun 14, 2020 12:46:09 GMT -8
GOP politicians won't see it as suicide as long as their bases continue to reflect trump values, and that won't change anytime soon. Almost no politician cares about the long term anything. They only care about being re-elected now.
But, I agree with you. IMO long term unless today's gop changes it's values it will become all but extinct as younger voters and voters of color dominate the electorate. The current gop party of trump will be gone but it may take a couple of decades.
OTOH more little trumpster-like minds are born and programmed every day. My GA neighbor who started out with two trumpster minds, he and his school teacher wife who used to bitterly complain about the black kids in her 3rd grade class that were "pumped out by welfare mothers for more government money" now has ten trump minds. His children and grandchildren all reflect his mindset including one of his sons, a police captain who says the favorite part of his job as a street cop was "rousting all the N'ers on MLK Blvd." Red states will be struggling for a long time.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 14, 2020 17:01:56 GMT -8
Here is a story about Pew Research on the changing demographics of the parties.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 14, 2020 17:02:42 GMT -8
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Post by blublood on Jun 14, 2020 17:26:43 GMT -8
What happens to the GOP if Trump loses is . . . nothing. Nothing will change. Trump will remain the 400-pound gorilla of the GOP. Gerrymandering means there are very few seats contended in November elections. What GOP officeholders fear is losing in a primary. And Trump will continue to make sure officeholders dance to his tune or he will back someone to take them out in a primary. Trump won't be out of politics either. He'll immediately start raising money for a 2024 presidential campaign.
And as DSC pointed out, as a Florida resident, Trump could also challenge Rubio for the Senate in 2022. I'm sure Trump would relish the chaos he could cause in the U.S. Senate.
For that matter, he could also challenge Florida governor Ron DeSantis. Who knows what crazy he wants to indulge?
But, however it falls out, Trump will still be defining the GOP. Almost certainly until he is dead. Enjoy, Republicans!
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dsc
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Post by dsc on Jun 14, 2020 20:47:16 GMT -8
From the article mh linked Heeheehee, so much for the much touted "Blexit." To think that in the first presidential election I voted, Bush Sr. carried the Asian American vote by a larger margin than the white vote. Thoughtful Republicans will undoubtedly reflect on how the party squandered away a group that could have become a reliable group much like the Cuban Americans. All three thoughtful Republicans, that is. Blu, I think he'd challenge Rubio over DeSantis. DeSantis has been loyal to Trump to a fault. Plus Trump would rather cause chaos in Washington DC than Tallahassee under the spotlight of the national media. Here is a good analysis by conservative Ross Douthat. He argues that Trump's failed presidency is pushing the country to the left and his second term could finish off the conservative movement. The emphasis is mine. I've used those exact same words on BZOF and elsewhere to the annoyance of conservatives who dislike Trump while applauding his policies. Conservatism, even in its heyday was a pie in the sky. Much like communism, it flies in the face of human nature. Nobody is going to gain political power only to curtail it in the name of "limited government." "Limited government" means limited for others, but not for those in power.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 14, 2020 21:07:21 GMT -8
At this point Asians are only around 4% of the electorate, so they will only be decisive in a pretty close election. But every bit helps.
As for Trump caring about who was loyal to him, he never has so far.
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dsc
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Post by dsc on Jun 14, 2020 21:14:29 GMT -8
At this point Asians are only around 4% of the electorate, so they will only be decisive in a pretty close election. But every bit helps. Maybe not in presidential elections, but young Asians certainly played a role in flipping two Orange County seats. In the case of CA-39, they turned on their own (Young Kim) and voted for the Korean American Republican's Democrat opponent. But my broader point is that not too long ago, the GOP carried the Asian vote, but now the Dems have a 55 point advantage. That may not mean much in the overall scheme of things, but it is emblematic of how the GOP has changed in the past 40-50 years.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 15, 2020 7:11:42 GMT -8
As for the direction of the party, a Republican Congressman was primaried out because he doesn't hate gays. He officiated at a gay wedding.
The party keeps getting pushed farther out of the mainstream, primarily by primary voters.
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Post by northbruin40 on Jun 15, 2020 9:53:57 GMT -8
As for Trump's health: www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/politics/donald-trump-health-ramp-water/index.htmlNow some of this could just be an overweight 74 (or whatever it is) year old man, so you can make too much out of it, but I am seriously questioning the idea of Trump running for President again in 2024 if he doesn't win in November. I don't think reports of this will hurt him toward the November election. The right-wingers will just ignore it, and claim it's made up. And more educated Republicans might quietly think "This is actually good, Trump will just delegate more to his cabinet as he gets older, like Reagan did".
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 15, 2020 10:01:02 GMT -8
If Trump starts suffering from dementia, how could anyone tell?
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dsc
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Post by dsc on Jun 15, 2020 10:26:19 GMT -8
but I am seriously questioning the idea of Trump running for President again in 2024 if he doesn't win in November. He may not end up running for President again in 2024. But just the talk of a rematch with Biden would wreck havoc in the GOP, hampering the party's quest to move forward. That would be delicious to watch Trump be the milestone around the GOP's neck. It would be long overdue, but very well deserved. Besides, Biden is 77 and will turn 78 two weeks after election day. Trump will be 78 in 2024. As Hillary said, what difference does it make? He will use Biden to justify the rerun. Edit: As I said before, he will run for Rubio's Senate seat. As a Senator, he won't have to do anything other than causing chaos and suck all the oxygen out of the Senate chamber. There is no governing to do. He can sit around and tweet all day. It is the cushiest job in Washington.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 15, 2020 10:30:14 GMT -8
Meanwhile, get ready for Trump TV. All lies, all the time. Just like a White House press conference.
"This Morning with Ivanka and Jarod." Sparkling conversation.
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Post by gainsborough on Jun 15, 2020 12:26:17 GMT -8
There's no way that Trump runs for a Senate seat in Florida, or in any other state. He only puts himself into situations where he enjoys an overwhelming advantage over the people around him. The senate is a collaborative body (at least in principal). The mere thought of Trump working with others is ludicrous.
On the other hand, I can easily imagine him attempting to run a network. Other than acting like a tyrant, there's nothing he would love more than to control the world's largest bullhorn. But Trump's skills as a self-promoter won't translate into long-term success in the broadcasting business, and if it ever gets off the ground, the Trump Network will surely fail. ETTD.
However, all that speculation is moot. In his post-White House years, I expect Trump's energies to be spent mostly attempting to avoid prison. I would not be surprised if he attempts to seek political asylum in Moscow...
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dsc
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Post by dsc on Jun 15, 2020 12:46:49 GMT -8
There's no way that Trump runs for a Senate seat in Florida, or in any other state. He only puts himself into situations where he enjoys an overwhelming advantage over the people around him. The senate is a collaborative body (at least in principal). The mere thought of Trump working with others is ludicrous. On the other hand, I can easily imagine him attempting to run a network. Other than acting like a tyrant, there's nothing he would love more than to control the world's largest bullhorn. But Trump's skills as a self-promoter won't translate into long-term success in the broadcasting business, and if it ever gets off the ground, the Trump Network will surely fail. ETTD. However, all that speculation is moot. In his post-White House years, I expect Trump's energies to be spent mostly attempting to avoid prison. I would not be surprised if he attempts to seek political asylum in Moscow... He has violated almost all of presidential norms, so do you think he'd have any respect for any of the norms in the Senate? His bootlicker Mitch doesn't. I am not sure if the state of New York has enough on him. If he does win reelection, can't the state go after his family? He will have presidential immunity, but Ivanka, Jared, Donald Jr. and Eric won't.
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