Post by northbruin40 on Oct 7, 2020 10:38:08 GMT -8
I may have said something about voters voting for other candidates (Libertarian, Green, ...) on another forum before, but let me make my question as to whether "other" votes actually help Biden at this point. He is currently at 51.6% in 538 and 51.4% in RCP. Clinton never did better than 46.2% in the RCP polling in 2016 (I think the top 538 polling was 46.0%). Clinton ended up at 48.18%, while Trump was at 46.09% back in 16 That year, Trump was polling as low as 38.9% in the RCP average about 3 weeks before the election. Maybe a 7% gain for Trump in the last 3 weeks of 16? Well, the RCP polling showed a move of about 5.5% over a late 2.5 week period.
Now back to other. They were 5.7% in 2016. If they take up an equal share of the "moveable" vote this time, then there just isn't much room for a Trump surge, unlike last time. Personally, I don't expect that to be as large as 5.7% this time, but maybe 4% is possible? If Biden holds 51%, and 4% is other, then Trump can only get 45%. A 3% net national difference allows the Electoral College to muck things up, but it's real hard for that to happen at 6%.
Now back to other. They were 5.7% in 2016. If they take up an equal share of the "moveable" vote this time, then there just isn't much room for a Trump surge, unlike last time. Personally, I don't expect that to be as large as 5.7% this time, but maybe 4% is possible? If Biden holds 51%, and 4% is other, then Trump can only get 45%. A 3% net national difference allows the Electoral College to muck things up, but it's real hard for that to happen at 6%.
