Post by mhbruin on Oct 7, 2020 9:23:03 GMT -8
Biden now has a 9% lead in the 538 average with 6% undecided. He is solidly over 50% at 51.5%.
This included a data entry error, where 538 lists a Rasmussen poll showing Trump with a 12% lead. In fact they found Biden has a 12% lead. Rasmussen has a STRONG pro-Repub lean, and even they show Biden up by 12. Two weeks ago Rasmussen showed Biden up by 1%.
OK, they fixed it and Biden is up to 9.3%.
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Meanwhile the smallest lead Biden has in the 3 keys states is 6.4% in Pennsylvania. If Biden should lose Pennsylvania, his most likely path to victory would be Arizona where he leads by 4.5% and Nevada where he leads by 6.8%.
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Meanwhile Biden is spending $6 million in Texas, where two recent polls shows the race tied.
Story on Texas polling
There's even a Senate poll showing it is a 1% race.
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“A GOP group working to elect Senate Republicans conducted polling over the weekend in four states — CO, GA, MT and NC — as Trump was hospitalized. The president’s numbers dropped ‘significantly’ in every state, falling by about five points in all four.”
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Speaking of ad spending:
"President Donald Trump's campaign hasn't run TV or radio ads in Iowa since the end of July, according to Advertising Analytics. And he's been dark on the Ohio airwaves since then too, except for one week in September where his campaign spent about $240,000.
"Since the beginning of August, Biden's campaign has outspent Trump $2.5 million to $240,000 in Ohio and $1.4 million to $0 in Iowa.
"Outside groups have stepped in to try to fill the gap in Iowa — since August, the GOP super PAC Preserve America PAC has spent $6.7 million in Iowa.
"But Trump hasn't been getting any air cover in Ohio, as the only GOP group to spend significant money on ads in the presidential race there over that span is Americans for Limited Government, which is actually running ads criticizing the president on health care.
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In the unlikely event that neither candidate got a majority in the Electoral College, we would end up with President Trump (elected by the House) and VP Harris (elected by the Senate). This is a BAD process.
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If you are a fan of constitutional crises, you might like this story about what happens if a candidate dies between now and inauguration day.
It's complicated
---------------------
SCOTUS makes a ruling that says that the Federal Government should generally let the states make the rules on elections.
But 3 Justices are very hostile to voting rights.
----------------------------------
Trump is singing along with the Rolling Stones:
"I see a border wall and I want to paint it black."
It costs him nothing since he doesn't pay taxes.
------------------------
This may be favorite Lincoln Project ad yet
-----------------------------------
Bonus video from Randy Rainbow and Broadway's Evita.
This included a data entry error, where 538 lists a Rasmussen poll showing Trump with a 12% lead. In fact they found Biden has a 12% lead. Rasmussen has a STRONG pro-Repub lean, and even they show Biden up by 12. Two weeks ago Rasmussen showed Biden up by 1%.
OK, they fixed it and Biden is up to 9.3%.
---------------------------------------
Meanwhile the smallest lead Biden has in the 3 keys states is 6.4% in Pennsylvania. If Biden should lose Pennsylvania, his most likely path to victory would be Arizona where he leads by 4.5% and Nevada where he leads by 6.8%.
-----------------------------------
Meanwhile Biden is spending $6 million in Texas, where two recent polls shows the race tied.
Story on Texas polling
There's even a Senate poll showing it is a 1% race.
----------------------------------------------
“A GOP group working to elect Senate Republicans conducted polling over the weekend in four states — CO, GA, MT and NC — as Trump was hospitalized. The president’s numbers dropped ‘significantly’ in every state, falling by about five points in all four.”
--------------------------------
Speaking of ad spending:
"President Donald Trump's campaign hasn't run TV or radio ads in Iowa since the end of July, according to Advertising Analytics. And he's been dark on the Ohio airwaves since then too, except for one week in September where his campaign spent about $240,000.
"Since the beginning of August, Biden's campaign has outspent Trump $2.5 million to $240,000 in Ohio and $1.4 million to $0 in Iowa.
"Outside groups have stepped in to try to fill the gap in Iowa — since August, the GOP super PAC Preserve America PAC has spent $6.7 million in Iowa.
"But Trump hasn't been getting any air cover in Ohio, as the only GOP group to spend significant money on ads in the presidential race there over that span is Americans for Limited Government, which is actually running ads criticizing the president on health care.
-------------------------------------------------
In the unlikely event that neither candidate got a majority in the Electoral College, we would end up with President Trump (elected by the House) and VP Harris (elected by the Senate). This is a BAD process.
------------------------------------
If you are a fan of constitutional crises, you might like this story about what happens if a candidate dies between now and inauguration day.
It's complicated
---------------------
SCOTUS makes a ruling that says that the Federal Government should generally let the states make the rules on elections.
But 3 Justices are very hostile to voting rights.
----------------------------------
Trump is singing along with the Rolling Stones:
"I see a border wall and I want to paint it black."
It costs him nothing since he doesn't pay taxes.
------------------------
This may be favorite Lincoln Project ad yet
-----------------------------------
Bonus video from Randy Rainbow and Broadway's Evita.
