Post by mhbruin on Oct 5, 2020 8:26:15 GMT -8
I am using RCP polling averages and win percentages from The Economist. The "Pickup" column assumes whoever is ahead wins, even if they are leading by a tiny amount.
The win percentages in traditionally red states are lower than the polling might indicate, since The Economist model considers "the latest data on polls and fundraising with 'fundamental' factors like incumbency and each state’s partisan lean." In other words they don't trust Democratic leads in red states.
Senate races are much harder to predict. There are often fewer polls and the quality is often unknown. Some of the pollsters have almost no track record. Having said that...
Ernst is looking increasingly vulnerable in Iowa.
The polls give the Democrats a shot at the 2 seats in Georgia, and thea seats in Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina. A Democratic pickup of 5 to 9 seats is possible, even if the high end is a long shot.
But there is a small, but real chance of a BIG wave. For example The Economist says Democrats have a 9% chance of ending up with 56 seats. while 538 gives it a 4.7% chance.
The win percentages in traditionally red states are lower than the polling might indicate, since The Economist model considers "the latest data on polls and fundraising with 'fundamental' factors like incumbency and each state’s partisan lean." In other words they don't trust Democratic leads in red states.
| DEMOCRAT | REPUB | DEMOCRAT EDGE | REPUB EDGE | DEMOCRATIC WIN % | DEMOCRATIC PICKUP | |
| Alabama | Doug Jones* | Tommy Tuberville | 14.0% | 5% | -1 | |
| Arizona | Kelly | McSally* | 6.0% | 88% | +1 | |
| Colorado | Hickenlooper | Gardner* | 8.0% | 79% | +1 | |
| Georgia | Ossof | Perdue* | 2.8% | 40% | ||
| Georgia Open | Warnock | Loeffler | 2.5% | 32% | ||
| Iowa | Greenfield | Ernst* | 5.0% | 56% | +1 | |
| Kansas | Bollier | Marshall | 2.0% | 28% | ||
| Kentucky | Amy McGrath | Mitch McConnell* | 11.0% | 4% | ||
| Maine | Gideon | Collins* | 6.5% | 74% | +1 | |
| Michigan | Peters* | James | 4.6% | 92% | ||
| Minnesota | Smith* | Lewis | 8.5% | 98% | ||
| Montana | Bullock | Daines* | 1.6% | 29% | ||
| North Carolina | Cunningham | Tillis* | 6.0% | 79% | +1 | |
| South Carolina | Harrison | Graham* | 0.3% | 36% | ||
| Texas | Hegar | Cornyn* | 8.0% | 16% |
Senate races are much harder to predict. There are often fewer polls and the quality is often unknown. Some of the pollsters have almost no track record. Having said that...
Ernst is looking increasingly vulnerable in Iowa.
The polls give the Democrats a shot at the 2 seats in Georgia, and thea seats in Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina. A Democratic pickup of 5 to 9 seats is possible, even if the high end is a long shot.
But there is a small, but real chance of a BIG wave. For example The Economist says Democrats have a 9% chance of ending up with 56 seats. while 538 gives it a 4.7% chance.