Post by less1brain on Oct 4, 2020 10:29:21 GMT -8
1. Studies showing that antibodies (produced by B-Cells) substantially vanish within 3 months after a person recovers from an infection to Covid-19 don't mean that immunity has been lost. Longer-term studies need to be done, but it's possible that only a small number of antibodies are needed to stop re-infection. In addition, the body stores "Memory B-Cells" in bone marrow that respond quickly if re-infection occurs. And research shows a robust T-Cell response to Covid-19 infection (T-Cells kill infected human cells; B-Cells attack the virus directly) and, apart from HIV, no virus has avoided a robust T-Cell response either in initial infections or possible re-infections.
In short: There's no reason to assume at the present time that a vaccine must be administered once every 3 months, once every 6 months or even once a year. A vaccine against Covid-19 might work for 10 years. Covid-19, to date, hasn't demonstrated anything close to the mutation rate of influenza (this is why we need to get vaccinated once a year for the flu). But not enough research has been done to know what will happen with any vaccines currently under trial. There's just no way to know until the data comes in... perhaps years from now.
2. The European Mortality Monitoring Project (EMMP) has proven very accurate in the past in measuring the true number of deaths from any infectious disease, as opposed to reported deaths. The model takes into account a nation's ability to test and identify deaths caused by a virus, the amount of sufficient medical resources to treat those who become very ill and many other factors. Peru, for instance, very likely has 74% more deaths from Covid-19 than have been reported. The United States very likely has 25% more deaths than have been reported. Spain very likely has 35% more deaths than have been reported.
Peru: 32,609 deaths reported, very likely number is 56,739
United States: 209,000 deaths reported (round numbers highly suspicious), very likely number is 261,250
Spain: 32,086 deaths reported, very likely number is 43,201
Additionally, it usually takes about a year at least, assuming that such activities as massive testing, full access to and analysis of accurate medical reports on deaths and on other underlying health issues that might have been the actual cause of death, and other factors are studied and taken into account (e.g., in April, City New York and Wuhan revised their death totals from Covid-19 upward by using these methods) and other factors. We now know that the virus causes fatal strokes and fatal pulmonary embolisms, but here in the United States no one has gone back yet to check to see how people died from these events due to Covid-19 rather than from some other assumed cause of death.
Finally, no one's tracking deaths from other diseases because an overwhelmed health care system led to a lessening of care and rigorous tracking of other conditions.
Research shows that, on a global basis, only about 50% of deaths from all causes are reported every year. So, double the amount of deaths that get reported every year. Not surprisingly, the death rate gets underestimated in countries where many people don't die in hospitals or otherwise have low quality health care.
One study in 2011 compared the quality of health care of 11 nations: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand Norway, Sweden Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. "While there is room for improvement in every country, the U.S. stands out for having the highest costs and lowest performance—the U.S. spent $8,508 per person on health care in 2011, compared with $3,406 in the United Kingdom, which ranked first overall." The United States has improved since then to number 8 on that list (as of 2019), but health care costs per person are now $11,100 (still the highest in the world).
Another note: Deaths from traffic accidents went way down this year. And deaths from the flu (and its spread) will undoubtedly be slowed if people continue to wear masks, social distance and frequently wash their hands.
In short: There's no reason to assume at the present time that a vaccine must be administered once every 3 months, once every 6 months or even once a year. A vaccine against Covid-19 might work for 10 years. Covid-19, to date, hasn't demonstrated anything close to the mutation rate of influenza (this is why we need to get vaccinated once a year for the flu). But not enough research has been done to know what will happen with any vaccines currently under trial. There's just no way to know until the data comes in... perhaps years from now.
2. The European Mortality Monitoring Project (EMMP) has proven very accurate in the past in measuring the true number of deaths from any infectious disease, as opposed to reported deaths. The model takes into account a nation's ability to test and identify deaths caused by a virus, the amount of sufficient medical resources to treat those who become very ill and many other factors. Peru, for instance, very likely has 74% more deaths from Covid-19 than have been reported. The United States very likely has 25% more deaths than have been reported. Spain very likely has 35% more deaths than have been reported.
Peru: 32,609 deaths reported, very likely number is 56,739
United States: 209,000 deaths reported (round numbers highly suspicious), very likely number is 261,250
Spain: 32,086 deaths reported, very likely number is 43,201
Additionally, it usually takes about a year at least, assuming that such activities as massive testing, full access to and analysis of accurate medical reports on deaths and on other underlying health issues that might have been the actual cause of death, and other factors are studied and taken into account (e.g., in April, City New York and Wuhan revised their death totals from Covid-19 upward by using these methods) and other factors. We now know that the virus causes fatal strokes and fatal pulmonary embolisms, but here in the United States no one has gone back yet to check to see how people died from these events due to Covid-19 rather than from some other assumed cause of death.
Finally, no one's tracking deaths from other diseases because an overwhelmed health care system led to a lessening of care and rigorous tracking of other conditions.
Research shows that, on a global basis, only about 50% of deaths from all causes are reported every year. So, double the amount of deaths that get reported every year. Not surprisingly, the death rate gets underestimated in countries where many people don't die in hospitals or otherwise have low quality health care.
One study in 2011 compared the quality of health care of 11 nations: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand Norway, Sweden Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. "While there is room for improvement in every country, the U.S. stands out for having the highest costs and lowest performance—the U.S. spent $8,508 per person on health care in 2011, compared with $3,406 in the United Kingdom, which ranked first overall." The United States has improved since then to number 8 on that list (as of 2019), but health care costs per person are now $11,100 (still the highest in the world).
Another note: Deaths from traffic accidents went way down this year. And deaths from the flu (and its spread) will undoubtedly be slowed if people continue to wear masks, social distance and frequently wash their hands.
