|
|
Post by mhbruin on Aug 12, 2020 7:47:58 GMT -8
"Trump is at 41. Stuck. " - Greg Dworkin citing Monmouth Poll "If you exclude the dubious pollsters, that’s where Trump has been since the beginning of June. It’s a 50-40 race. An incumbent down by 10 with less than 3 months to go? Unheard of." - Stu Rothstein I don't think Rothsein is right about this. Through all of September 1992, Clinton led Bush the Edler by at least 10 points. And Carter had beg leads over Ford 3 months out.  This really is an amazingly stable race. Perhaps Biden will get a little bump from picking Kamela or his convention, but those things don't typically last. Besides, there isn't much room to grow. There are only 7.6% undecided, and many of them won't vote anyway. Apparently the Harris pick has been good for Biden's fund-raising. |
|
|
|
Post by Born2BBruin on Aug 12, 2020 9:03:02 GMT -8
Not so fast. 538's polling average has had trump over 42% on 9 out of 12 days in August.
Last week's CNBC/Change Research poll had trump at 44%. 538 rates Change Research a C-, so call it dubious.
But Emerson College gets an A- from 538, and their last poll had trump at 46%.
And both pollsters lean Dem.
538's just unveiled Election Forecast gives Biden a 71% chance to win the election. That unnervingly close to Clinton's chances in 2016.
trump only has to get within 3% in the popular vote to be in position to win the Electoral College. He only needs to improve 1% per month.
And that's not counting the potential for voter suppression and outright fraud.
|
|
hasben
Resident Member
Posts: 1,028
|
Post by hasben on Aug 12, 2020 10:30:50 GMT -8
Not so fast. 538's polling average has had trump over 42% on 9 out of 12 days in August. Last week's CNBC/Change Research poll had trump at 44%. 538 rates Change Research a C-, so call it dubious. But Emerson College gets an A- from 538, and their last poll had trump at 46%. And both pollsters lean Dem. 538's just unveiled Election Forecast gives Biden a 71% chance to win the election. That unnervingly close to Clinton's chances in 2016. trump only has to get within 3% in the popular vote to be in position to win the Electoral College. He only needs to improve 1% per month. And that's not counting the potential for voter suppression and outright fraud. I think you're right. I take little comfort in the polls. There's too many unknown variables not the least of which is the suppression and fraud you mentioned as well as foreign tampering. The same mistake was made with Clinton. And now we have to contend with what trump will do if he loses. No one should feel secure about this until a new potus is sworn in without civil insurrection. |
|
|
|
Post by northbruin40 on Aug 12, 2020 10:55:24 GMT -8
I think a lot of the uncertainty in the 538 numbers is that the election is still 10+ weeks away.
|
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Aug 12, 2020 11:44:29 GMT -8
I think a lot of the uncertainty in the 538 numbers is that the election is still 10+ weeks away. Exactly! A 29% chance 80 days out is different from a 29% chance in November. That's why every day that passes with no change in the polls is bad news for Donald. Tick, tick, tick. |
|
dsc
Resident Member
Posts: 759
|
Post by dsc on Aug 12, 2020 11:54:46 GMT -8
Just my observations, but
Trump supporters: "Trump will wipe the floor with Biden in the debates! He will win by a historic landslide and make the liberals cry!"
Biden supporters: "Ignore the polls. Vote! Trump will cheat. Republican governors will suppress votes. Vote! Don't get cocky."
That is a far cry from 2016. Not only was Hillary going to trounce Trump, but Republican down ballots were supposed to get killed as well. Those were the general feelings around this time of the cycle. My neighbors think Trump will carry California after "something big" happens.
|
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Aug 12, 2020 11:55:49 GMT -8
I would also suggest looking at the 538 model from 2016. It was all over the place over timeAt then end of July, they showed it a 50-50 race. Then compare it to 2020, and just like the polls, their model is VERY stable. |
|
