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Post by sagobob on Aug 11, 2020 11:05:26 GMT -8
According to a Los Angeles Times article the Covid-19 mortality rate at San Quintin Prison translates to 767 out of 100,000, with new cases still occurring.
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Post by Floppy Johnson on Aug 11, 2020 11:27:15 GMT -8
According to a Los Angeles Times article the Covid-19 mortality rate at San Quintin Prison translates to 767 out of 100,000, with new cases still occurring. Can you get it twice? If you can, any discussion of "herd immunity" ..... why are they even talking about it? Not being critical of you, being critical of the article. |
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Post by mhbruin on Aug 11, 2020 12:43:28 GMT -8
We don't really know if you can get it twice.
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Post by sagobob on Aug 11, 2020 14:50:58 GMT -8
Both Floppy and mh raise some interesting questions. Can Covid-19 pay your another visit, or two, and will a vaccine require repetitive seasonal or booster shots, or will the immunity last much longer?
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Post by mhbruin on Aug 12, 2020 11:41:47 GMT -8
Here is the best article I have seen on whether you can get it twice and herd immunity. It's pretty long, so here are a few highlights: There are many types of immunity. Immunity could mean a strong antibody response, which prevents the virus from establishing itself in cells. But it could also mean a good killer T-cell response, which could potentially stop an infection very quickly: before you feel sick and before you start spreading the virus to others. If you get a Covid-19 antibody test back and it’s positive, are you immune? Sadly, these tests cannot confirm how protected a person is against Covid-19 and for what duration. All you really can conclude from an antibody test is that you’ve been exposed to the virus. For one thing, the wide spectrum of immune responses to the SARS-CoV-2 virus means that there will likely be a range of responses to a vaccine. Not everyone will receive the same level of protection from a given vaccine and some may not get any protection at all. What’s more, the immune response in older people is different from that in children, for example, so it’s hard to make a one-size-fits-all vaccine. Getting lasting protection from Covid-19 may require multiple doses of these types of vaccines, or vaccines targeted to different parts of the virus. The results of inoculation can vary, from sterilizing immunity, which completely prevents an infection, to protection only against severe outcomes from the virus but not mild ones. Depending on how readily a disease can spread, the threshold for herd immunity can be anywhere from 60 percent to 90 percent of a population. There’s a sliding scale between how effective a vaccine is and how many people have to get it to achieve herd immunity. Effectiveness in this case means the share of vaccinated people who are immune to the virus out of all who received the vaccine. Reinfections may serve to increase immunity in individuals. With numerous clusters of infection like we have now in the United States, far more people need to be vaccinated to contain them, and the vaccine would need to have a higher level of efficacy. Full Article |
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Post by sagobob on Aug 12, 2020 12:22:22 GMT -8
Here is the best article I have seen on whether you can get it twice and herd immunity. It's pretty long, so here are a few highlights: There are many types of immunity. Immunity could mean a strong antibody response, which prevents the virus from establishing itself in cells. But it could also mean a good killer T-cell response, which could potentially stop an infection very quickly: before you feel sick and before you start spreading the virus to others. If you get a Covid-19 antibody test back and it’s positive, are you immune? Sadly, these tests cannot confirm how protected a person is against Covid-19 and for what duration. All you really can conclude from an antibody test is that you’ve been exposed to the virus. For one thing, the wide spectrum of immune responses to the SARS-CoV-2 virus means that there will likely be a range of responses to a vaccine. Not everyone will receive the same level of protection from a given vaccine and some may not get any protection at all. What’s more, the immune response in older people is different from that in children, for example, so it’s hard to make a one-size-fits-all vaccine. Getting lasting protection from Covid-19 may require multiple doses of these types of vaccines, or vaccines targeted to different parts of the virus. The results of inoculation can vary, from sterilizing immunity, which completely prevents an infection, to protection only against severe outcomes from the virus but not mild ones. Depending on how readily a disease can spread, the threshold for herd immunity can be anywhere from 60 percent to 90 percent of a population. There’s a sliding scale between how effective a vaccine is and how many people have to get it to achieve herd immunity. Effectiveness in this case means the share of vaccinated people who are immune to the virus out of all who received the vaccine. Reinfections may serve to increase immunity in individuals. With numerous clusters of infection like we have now in the United States, far more people need to be vaccinated to contain them, and the vaccine would need to have a higher level of efficacy. Full ArticleWow! Great article with lots of good information. Thanks for posting it.  |
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Post by less1brain on Aug 12, 2020 13:56:37 GMT -8
I wish I could link articles from "Nature" and other scientific publications, but they're subscription only. But the prices are very reasonable, especially if you're a long-term subscriber.
Yes, people can get it twice. Thousands have. Given that few people get tested after they've "recovered," it's possible that hundreds of thousands for people have been infected more than once. In clinical studies, the reinfection rate seems to hover between 8%-14%, which is quite a big range and not enough factors taken into account in the studies might be consistent.
In some cases, a T-Cell response can do more damage than good. There are numerous types of T-Cells and some help a lot and some can be very dangerous, especially as they react with still other parts of the immune system.
Another problem with tracking the severity of Covid-19's impact is that almost all of the focus has been on deaths, rather than lasting damage to the human body. Some estimates include some sobering figures where concentrated follow-up has occurred: For every person who dies, between 7-10 suffer permanent damage to their bodies that will affect their health, their ability to work, etc., for the rest of their lives.
JAMA, NEJM and Science (and Nature) all have numerous articles on these issues, which unfortunately are very complex and we might still not know much about this virus for another decade.
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Post by sagobob on Aug 12, 2020 17:38:43 GMT -8
I wish I could link articles from "Nature" and other scientific publications, but they're subscription only. But the prices are very reasonable, especially if you're a long-term subscriber. Yes, people can get it twice. Thousands have. Given that few people get tested after they've "recovered," it's possible that hundreds of thousands for people have been infected more than once. In clinical studies, the reinfection rate seems to hover between 8%-14%, which is quite a big range and not enough factors taken into account in the studies might be consistent. In some cases, a T-Cell response can do more damage than good. There are numerous types of T-Cells and some help a lot and some can be very dangerous, especially as they react with still other parts of the immune system. Another problem with tracking the severity of Covid-19's impact is that almost all of the focus has been on deaths, rather than lasting damage to the human body. Some estimates include some sobering figures where concentrated follow-up has occurred: For every person who dies, between 7-10 suffer permanent damage to their bodies that will affect their health, their ability to work, etc., for the rest of their lives. JAMA, NEJM and Science (and Nature) all have numerous articles on these issues, which unfortunately are very complex and we might still not know much about this virus for another decade. All very good points. Where are you getting your information? My take away here is that we're learning as we go along and we still have a long way to go. |
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Post by less1brain on Aug 14, 2020 14:08:23 GMT -8
I get my info from the four journals mentioned above: Nature (British), Science (US), NEJM (US) and JAMA (US).
I also subscribe to The Lancet (British) and the English-language version of Annalen der Physik (German obviously, and about physics, not medicine).
If you subscribe to the NEJM, JAMA and Nature, you'd probably be covered.
NEJM online only is $159 a year, $199 for both paper copy and online; Nature is 199 print and online (I like to carry physical copies around and read them). JAMA is pretty expensive, about 300 a year, and you have to remember that Nature and JAMA have sub-journals that can be very expensive unless you're a medical student or grad student and you can access everything for free if the school subscribes (though Springer, the main publisher of scientific journals, is trying to go with a fee per use model and the UC system is in a furious dispute with them on that).
Just go with the NEJM. But JAMA will likely have more concentrated information on Covid-19.
These are all open-sourced publications and I'm not sure anyone has gotten a Nobel Prize lately unless they've been published in "Nature." The PRC got so upset that no Chinese scientists were winning prizes, they finally had to relent on open sourcing. There's been a surge in publications by Chinese authors since then.
It's odd, but none of the doctors I know ever read any of these journals...
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