A Covid-19 vaccine: don't set your expectations too high
Jul 30, 2020 9:10:10 GMT -8
Floppy Johnson likes this
Post by sagobob on Jul 30, 2020 9:10:10 GMT -8
There's an interesting article saying as much in this morning's LA Times. Since a link probably won't work and they block copy, edit and paste, I'll attempt to summarize some of what the article said. Direct quotes from the article are enclosed in " marks.
Forget a vaccine for years or a lifetime, like the ones for polio, measles, or shingles. Think seasonal vaccine, like the one for the flu. And think of it as a vaccine that could reduce the incidence of the more serious effects of Covid-19 virus, like hospitalization, and outcomes like death.
Of the more than 150 vaccines under development, 14 have been identified as "promising candidates". "Of those 14, seven have been designated as front- runners, including three whose early clinical trial results have undergone independent evaluation."
"Under the recently released federal guidelines, a Covid-19 vaccine can be authorized for use if it is safe and proves effective in as few as 50% of those who receive it. And 'effective' doesn't necessarily mean stopping people from getting sick from Covid-19. It means minimizing the most serious symptoms, experts say."
It's what the scientists don't know. What immunity against the virus looks like. That information will come from studying the body's response to an infection, which varies from person to person. It is currently not known what the minimum target is for an immune response. "Physicians have noted a wide range of immune responses to Covid-19. Some patients have produced high levels of neutralizing antibodies, while others produce only low levels." Then an expert was quoted as saying, "all have recovered and we do not know how they did this."
According to another expert quoted in the article, "it's likely that the FDA will issue an emergency-use authorization if any of the vaccines in development show significant and convincing evidence of efficacy and safety." Under that authorization the vaccine could be administered before the completion of Phase 3 trials.
And another expert worries that doing that could give the public a false sense of being protected.
While the seven "front-runner" candidate vaccines have induced immune responses in people participating in early tests, failure is still possible in Phase 3 trials. And this is important: all seven use the same strategy as they are designed to neutralize the spike protein on the virus.
So keep your mask on and continue to follow the rules for social distancing.
Forget a vaccine for years or a lifetime, like the ones for polio, measles, or shingles. Think seasonal vaccine, like the one for the flu. And think of it as a vaccine that could reduce the incidence of the more serious effects of Covid-19 virus, like hospitalization, and outcomes like death.
Of the more than 150 vaccines under development, 14 have been identified as "promising candidates". "Of those 14, seven have been designated as front- runners, including three whose early clinical trial results have undergone independent evaluation."
"Under the recently released federal guidelines, a Covid-19 vaccine can be authorized for use if it is safe and proves effective in as few as 50% of those who receive it. And 'effective' doesn't necessarily mean stopping people from getting sick from Covid-19. It means minimizing the most serious symptoms, experts say."
It's what the scientists don't know. What immunity against the virus looks like. That information will come from studying the body's response to an infection, which varies from person to person. It is currently not known what the minimum target is for an immune response. "Physicians have noted a wide range of immune responses to Covid-19. Some patients have produced high levels of neutralizing antibodies, while others produce only low levels." Then an expert was quoted as saying, "all have recovered and we do not know how they did this."
According to another expert quoted in the article, "it's likely that the FDA will issue an emergency-use authorization if any of the vaccines in development show significant and convincing evidence of efficacy and safety." Under that authorization the vaccine could be administered before the completion of Phase 3 trials.
And another expert worries that doing that could give the public a false sense of being protected.
While the seven "front-runner" candidate vaccines have induced immune responses in people participating in early tests, failure is still possible in Phase 3 trials. And this is important: all seven use the same strategy as they are designed to neutralize the spike protein on the virus.
So keep your mask on and continue to follow the rules for social distancing.