Post by mhbruin on Jul 30, 2020 7:54:55 GMT -8
Yes it was a bad quarter, historically bad, but ...
"To appreciate how substantial the fiscal support was: real disposable personal income ROSE 10% (annual rate was 44.9%) in Q2."
"The economy collapsed but incomes were up due to stimulus checks and UI"
That stuff is ending, so expect a big drop in personal income. That is when the real economic pain begins.
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If GDP goes up 33% next quarter, Trump will brag that we have recovered. It won't be true.
Suppose you have $1,000 and lose 33%. You now have $667. Then you gain 33%. You now have $887. You are still 11% behind.
33% of $1,000 is bigger than 33% of $667.
Percentage gains and losses are deceptive. Expect many in the media to get this wrong.
"To appreciate how substantial the fiscal support was: real disposable personal income ROSE 10% (annual rate was 44.9%) in Q2."
"The economy collapsed but incomes were up due to stimulus checks and UI"
That stuff is ending, so expect a big drop in personal income. That is when the real economic pain begins.
===========================
If GDP goes up 33% next quarter, Trump will brag that we have recovered. It won't be true.
Suppose you have $1,000 and lose 33%. You now have $667. Then you gain 33%. You now have $887. You are still 11% behind.
33% of $1,000 is bigger than 33% of $667.
Percentage gains and losses are deceptive. Expect many in the media to get this wrong.