Post by mhbruin on Jul 18, 2020 7:43:25 GMT -8
"The drop in Trump's job approval rating puts him in the company of George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter -- the last two one-term presidents, who also had sub-40% approval ratings in June of their reelection years. Earlier this year, Trump's approval ratings were closer to those of George W. Bush and Barack Obama at a similar point in their presidencies, the last two presidents who won a second term.
"Trump can hope for an outcome similar to the 1948 election, when voters elected Harry Truman to a second term with a June approval rating (40%) only slightly better than what Trump currently has.
"There is no consistent historical pattern for the trajectory of presidential approval ratings from June through Election Day in incumbent reelection years. About half of the presidents whose approval ratings Gallup measured after June showed some improvement, and the other half did not.
"The Truman exception aside (the 40% June approval rating was the last pre-election measure by Gallup), Obama had the largest increase through the summer and fall of a reelection year, with six points. If Trump duplicates that feat and gets his approval to the mid-40s, his reelection would still be very much in doubt. The absence of significant third-party candidates that could splinter the anti-incumbent vote -- as happened in 1948, 1980 and 1992 -- makes getting closer to majority job approval even more critical for Trump.
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FWIW, there is only 1 demographic that has Trump's job approval above 50%: whites without a college education.
"Trump can hope for an outcome similar to the 1948 election, when voters elected Harry Truman to a second term with a June approval rating (40%) only slightly better than what Trump currently has.
"There is no consistent historical pattern for the trajectory of presidential approval ratings from June through Election Day in incumbent reelection years. About half of the presidents whose approval ratings Gallup measured after June showed some improvement, and the other half did not.
"The Truman exception aside (the 40% June approval rating was the last pre-election measure by Gallup), Obama had the largest increase through the summer and fall of a reelection year, with six points. If Trump duplicates that feat and gets his approval to the mid-40s, his reelection would still be very much in doubt. The absence of significant third-party candidates that could splinter the anti-incumbent vote -- as happened in 1948, 1980 and 1992 -- makes getting closer to majority job approval even more critical for Trump.
Full story
FWIW, there is only 1 demographic that has Trump's job approval above 50%: whites without a college education.