Post by mhbruin on Jul 17, 2020 8:14:50 GMT -8
From Nate Cohn of the NYT:
Even if the Polls Are Really Off, Trump Is Still in Trouble
Joe Biden’s lead is sufficient to cover a sizable error. And several of the biggest problems with polling in the last election have either been addressed or become less relevant.
With Joe Biden claiming almost a double-digit lead in national polls, one question still seems to loom over the race: Can we trust the polls after 2016?
It’s a good question. But for now, it’s not as important as you might guess. If the election were held today, Mr. Biden would win the presidency, even if the polls were exactly as wrong as they were four years ago.
The reason is simple: His lead is far wider than Hillary Clinton’s was in the final polls, and large enough to withstand another 2016 polling meltdown.
Even if the Polls Are Really Off, Trump Is Still in Trouble
Joe Biden’s lead is sufficient to cover a sizable error. And several of the biggest problems with polling in the last election have either been addressed or become less relevant.
With Joe Biden claiming almost a double-digit lead in national polls, one question still seems to loom over the race: Can we trust the polls after 2016?
It’s a good question. But for now, it’s not as important as you might guess. If the election were held today, Mr. Biden would win the presidency, even if the polls were exactly as wrong as they were four years ago.
The reason is simple: His lead is far wider than Hillary Clinton’s was in the final polls, and large enough to withstand another 2016 polling meltdown.