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Post by mhbruin on Jul 16, 2020 6:55:42 GMT -8
-- The Constitution divides the Senate into three “classes” that face the voters on six-year cycles. Under today’s political dynamics, the class that faced the voters in 2018 was favorable to the Republicans, while the class that faces the voters in 2020 is favorable to the Democrats.
-- What about the class that faces the voters in 2022? Our analysis shows that this class is also favorable to the Democrats.
-- If the Democrats manage to seize the Senate majority in 2020, the relatively pro-Democratic map in 2022 could insulate the party somewhat if Joe Biden is elected president and a midterm backlash benefiting the GOP emerges.
-- The Democrats will need to run up the score in the Senate in both 2020 and 2022 if they are going to keep the majority past the 2024 elections, when the Republicans benefit from an extremely favorable map for their party.
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Post by blublood on Jul 16, 2020 9:36:12 GMT -8
The 2020 class is the same as the 2008 class, where a big Obama win also produced a 60% Dem Senate. My recollection is that 2010 didn't turn out so well, largely because the 2008 majorities allowed bold legislation that the GOP ran against.
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Post by northbruin40 on Jul 16, 2020 11:26:15 GMT -8
The 2020 class is the same as the 2008 class, where a big Obama win also produced a 60% Dem Senate. My recollection is that 2010 didn't turn out so well, largely because the 2008 majorities allowed bold legislation that the GOP ran against. The mid-term elections tend to have older and whiter voters, which helps the Republicans, especially in "angry" years such as 1994 and 2010. Will 2022 be a repeat? The Dems did well in 2006 and 2018 when voting patterns minimized the impact of mid-term demographics. |
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Post by mhbruin on Jul 16, 2020 11:40:35 GMT -8
Midterms also tend to go against the party in the White House.
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dsc
Resident Member
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Post by dsc on Jul 16, 2020 23:02:17 GMT -8
Midterms also tend to go against the party in the White House. If Biden is in the White House, will the GOP score historic wins in 2022? They did in 1992, 2010, and 2014. 1992: Contract With America. 2010 & 2014: Tea Party. So what will it be called in 2022? |
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Post by mhbruin on Jul 17, 2020 8:30:29 GMT -8
Midterms also tend to go against the party in the White House. If Biden is in the White House, will the GOP score historic wins in 2022? They did in 1992, 2010, and 2014. 1992: Contract With America. 2010 & 2014: Tea Party. So what will it be called in 2022? The don't have big gains every time. |
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Post by blublood on Jul 17, 2020 8:31:42 GMT -8
Your premise is a Trump loss. I think the following midterm depends a lot on what Trump does. Will he just throw up his hands and leave politics? Or does he immediately start organizing to beat Biden in 2024? He can still be King of the GOP if he wants to.
If Trump goes away, the midterms are likely to be favorable for Republicans. If he hangs around, using his clout to get Trumpistas elected in GOP primaries, I think it will favor Democrats.
Trump can be a toxic presence for as long as he wants.
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Post by mhbruin on Jul 17, 2020 8:36:19 GMT -8
The GOP is the party of Trumpism. I don't think that will change after November, no matter what he does.
I expect part of it will be dealing with lots of legal troubles.
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DrJ
Contributing Member
Posts: 188
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Post by DrJ on Jul 17, 2020 8:41:21 GMT -8
Your premise is a Trump loss. I think the following midterm depends a lot on what Trump does. Will he just throw up his hands and leave politics? Or does he immediately start organizing to beat Biden in 2024? He can still be King of the GOP if he wants to. If Trump goes away, the midterms are likely to be favorable for Republicans. If he hangs around, using his clout to get Trumpistas elected in GOP primaries, I think it will favor Democrats. Trump can be a toxic presence for as long as he wants. Trump is a coward and has a fragile scarred ego, and will be 78 in 2024. Biden will be 82 and likely will do one term. Losing an election will further unhinge Trump, and devastate his self-promoted image as a winner. 4 years of revelations about all the shady crap he has done will further damage him. |
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Post by blublood on Jul 17, 2020 15:25:00 GMT -8
RBG is 87. The President Pro Tempore of the Senate is 86. I fully expect Biden, should he win this year, to run in 2024.
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dsc
Resident Member
Posts: 759
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Post by dsc on Jul 17, 2020 15:30:43 GMT -8
RBG is 87. The President Pro Tempore of the Senate is 86. I fully expect Biden, should he win this year, to run in 2024. Except the presidency is a much more demanding job. |
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DrJ
Contributing Member
Posts: 188
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Post by DrJ on Jul 17, 2020 20:09:15 GMT -8
RBG is 87. The President Pro Tempore of the Senate is 86. I fully expect Biden, should he win this year, to run in 2024. Except the presidency is a much more demanding job. ^^^^^ THIS ^^^^^ |
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Post by blublood on Jul 17, 2020 20:34:26 GMT -8
It still has to do with the vigor of the individual. Biden's in better shape than you think.
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