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Post by mhbruin on Jul 13, 2020 19:04:28 GMT -8
King’s College London team found steep drops in patients’ antibody levels three months after infection A Cambridge University virologist said the study should ‘put another nail in the coffin of herd immunity’. People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people year after year, like common colds. In the first longitudinal study of its kind, scientists analysed the immune response of more than 90 patients and healthcare workers at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS foundation trust and found levels of antibodies that can destroy the virus peaked about three weeks after the onset of symptoms then swiftly declined. Blood tests revealed that while 60% of people marshalled a “potent” antibody response at the height of their battle with the virus, only 17% retained the same potency three months later. Antibody levels fell as much as 23-fold over the period. In some cases, they became undetectable. “People are producing a reasonable antibody response to the virus, but it’s waning over a short period of time and depending on how high your peak is, that determines how long the antibodies are staying around,” said Dr Katie Doores, lead author on the study at King’s College London. The study has implications for the development of a vaccine, and for the pursuit of “herd immunity” in the community over time. Full article
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Post by grant73 on Jul 13, 2020 20:54:20 GMT -8
There is a current parallel and similar-outcome Spanish study too; the implication is that Covid-19 may be able to re-visit a patient year by year such as the common cold, which of course is also a not un-similar type of virus, constructively but of course not as dangerous. Not a good sign. By the way, today I watched the 1990 film "Awakenings" which covered in a fictional way the true story of Dr. Oliver Sacks (a former post-graduate immunology fellow at UCLA). He found a population of "recovered" victims of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic. As a Doctor he noticed that a rare form of encephalitis affected their brains. It can be looked up, to save me the typing... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encephalitis_lethargica (EL) Point being, it can not be proven or dis-proven that the 1918 coronal virus influenza these patients were all linked to caused their post-flu-recovery but eventual suffering with the EL that made them catatonic (to oversimplify various symptoms, all requiring institutional imprisonment in mental hospitals.) It was fascinating to see, although as just one example of downstream health defects in RECOVERED patients, pretty scary. So brain disease may join the other rumored possible maladies such as muscular, intestinal and cardio-vascular difficulties we hear about in the Covid-19 news these days. By the way, after UCLA, Dr. Oliver Sachs lived a Timothy Leary kind of life for a couple years before rejoining his distinguished medical and writing career.
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Post by mhbruin on Jul 14, 2020 13:23:42 GMT -8
Here's another article about how herd immunity may not be possible. LinkHe finishes by saying that masks and distancing are the solution. I am not sure they are a permanent solution. Does all this mean a vaccine is impossible? I wonder if an effective vaccine would require more than one dose or even regular booster shot.
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Post by blublood on Jul 14, 2020 17:27:48 GMT -8
The point of masks and distancing is to get the infections to a low enough level that isolation, contact tracing, testing, and selective quarantine can work.
Considering the factors already mentioned in this thread, there is no certainty that herd immunity or vaccines can work. It's not that we can't be hopeful and optimistic about them. But with this disease, none of that is yet proven.
And I've been saying for at least a month now that there is way too much happy-talk about herd immunity and vaccines.
On the other hand, the approach identified in my first paragraph here is exactly how New Zealand already eradicated COVID. But even for New Zealand, it will only stay that way with committed vigilance.
The contact tracing approach, however, won't work until people are compliant with public health mandates and we make a sufficient investment in contact tracing. It requires both.
Unfortunately, the public has been conditioned now to think the only two solutions are vaccines or herd immunity.
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Post by mhbruin on Jul 14, 2020 17:44:45 GMT -8
An effective treatment would help a lot too.
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