|
|
Post by mhbruin on Jul 7, 2020 8:47:41 GMT -8
I have always respected him. In this long article he talks about how college-educated whites are the key group to watch. He doesn't seem to think blue-collar white males are the key group. He concludes his long article with: "Yet many observers in both parties believe that's exactly what the November election may produce in virtually every state: a widening trench between the preponderantly White small-town and rural areas that remain bonded to Trump and a deepening recoil from him in the diverse and well-educated urban and suburban population centers. "Trump may be comfortable with that trade since he is trying only to finesse one more Electoral College victory even if he loses the popular vote again. But many Republicans say Trump's vision of squeezing bigger margins out of shrinking places at the cost of generating more resistance in communities that are growing is a losing long-term trajectory for the party. Nowhere is that more true than in the battle for control of the US House. "It's a strategy that is divorced from the reality of the country," says Curbelo. "And there are Republican leaders in both chambers who are aware of this. This is not an important [consideration in] the President's strategy because in his team's mind they only have to win one more election. But for everyone else it's a longer-term game. A lot of Republicans have been willing to be shortsighted and taken what they can get from the Trump era. But ultimately they know this is not the future of the party." Full articleIf this goes the way he discusses, the remaining GOP House members become more Trumpish, and the party will continue to marginalize itself. |
|
|
|
Post by blublood on Jul 7, 2020 9:39:00 GMT -8
None of this should be news to Californians who watched the Prop 187 battle. The California GOP is the model for the future of the national party.
After 2012, the GOP commissioned a report on future strategy. Republican leaders ignored its recommendations, and Trump was the opposite.
In about 12 years, the GOP will be about as relevant nationally as it is in California now.
|
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Jul 7, 2020 9:50:19 GMT -8
And it is a vicious cycle. As the party shrinks, it becomes more rural and more evangelical and more extreme. So it shrinks again.
The primary voters run the party. They were better off with smoke-filled rooms of party insiders. There is a cautionary tale for Democrats here.
|
|
|
|
Post by Born2BBruin on Jul 7, 2020 10:09:47 GMT -8
None of this should be news to Californians who watched the Prop 187 battle. The California GOP is the model for the future of the national party. After 2012, the GOP commissioned a report on future strategy. Republican leaders ignored its recommendations, and Trump was the opposite. In about 12 years, the GOP will be about as relevant nationally as it is in California now. Good observation. One has to ask, how does relitigating the Civil War and defending the Confederacy turn out good for Republicans? |
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Jul 7, 2020 10:46:55 GMT -8
I do need to remind myself that the demise of the Republican Party has been predicted before in my lifetime. I have done it. And they rose from the figurative ashes. Is this time different? I hope so. Then I hope that a more reasonable conservative party emerges.
Will this happen? No one knows for sure. The future isn't written in Sharpie.
|
|
|
|
Post by northbruin40 on Jul 7, 2020 11:18:02 GMT -8
And it is a vicious cycle. As the party shrinks, it becomes more rural and more evangelical and more extreme. So it shrinks again. The primary voters run the party. They were better off with smoke-filled rooms of party insiders. There is a cautionary tale for Democrats here. Apparently, Britain has gone the other way. The Labor Party embraced being angry back-seat drivers consumed with ideological purity. So the Tories there, despite multiple mistakes keep consolidating political power, because the left has little appeal to the middle. And the middle would rather go with the flawed Tories with whom they can see some middle ground than the left. By the way, Britain, like the US, is becoming more diverse. That should help Labor, but they haven't done a good job of building alliances between the middle and the left. The left hates Tony Blair, and they don't want to go that way again. In the U.S. I think it's very important to keep having politicians that bridge the left and the middle. |
|
|
|
Post by northbruin40 on Jul 7, 2020 11:35:09 GMT -8
Good observation. One has to ask, how does relitigating the Civil War and defending the Confederacy turn out good for Republicans? I don't think it should be viewed as any sort of calculated move. It can be viewed as another deliberately contrarian Trump gut move. Also, Trump values loyalty, and he sees rural-ish, confederate-flag-waving, non-college-educated folks as his loyal supporters. There's also a myth among many conservatives that they view themselves as middle-of-the road, non-partisans from middle America. That ties into the "silent majority" and the idea of millions of hidden voters will suddenly appear in November and carry Trump to victory. |
|
dsc
Resident Member
Posts: 759
|
Post by dsc on Jul 7, 2020 21:05:41 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by blublood on Jul 8, 2020 5:54:12 GMT -8
I do need to remind myself that the demise of the Republican Party has been predicted before in my lifetime. I have done it. And they rose from the figurative ashes. Is this time different? I hope so. Then I hope that a more reasonable conservative party emerges. Will this happen? No one knows for sure. The future isn't written in Sharpie. This time, the shifting demographics are helping. Note that I didn't say this was happening tomorrow. I think the biggest change is going to follow the 2030 census and the redistricting prior to the 2032 election. |
|
|
|
Post by northbruin40 on Jul 8, 2020 8:14:28 GMT -8
This time, the shifting demographics are helping. Note that I didn't say this was happening tomorrow. I think the biggest change is going to follow the 2030 census and the redistricting prior to the 2032 election. i tried to estimate once how much changing demographics would change the electorate. I estimated over 4 years the vote becomes 1.3% bluer due to demographic changes. To put that in context in 2016: Florida Trump by 1.20% Wisconsin Trump by 0.77% Pennsylvania Trump by 0.72% Michigan Trump by 0.23% New Hampshire Clinton by 0.37% Minnesota Clinton by 1.52% Nevada Clinton by 1.52% in 2012; Florida Obama by 0.88% North Carolina Romney by 2.04% Ohio Obama by 2.98% Virginia Obama by 3.88% |
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Jul 8, 2020 8:36:11 GMT -8
Demographics are VERY slow. Take Hispanics.
Hispanics are a big part of the Democratic coalition, and the size of the Hispanic vote is growing. However, has Trump’s rhetoric about Mexican being racists and murderers hurt the Republican Party? It doesn’t seem like it. Pew Research data shows that Republicans have steadily held on to around 1/4th of Hispanic vote for at least 20 years.
Why do Hispanics stick with a party that often seems hostile to them? There are likely a number of factors.
• Party loyalty
• Interest in issues other than immigration
• Individual Republican candidates invest in outreach to Hispanics.
• A significant number of evangelical Hispanics.
If this party identification continues, the growth of the Hispanic vote will increase the Democratic vote, but significantly more slowly than some Democrats might hope. The Hispanic portion of the vote has grown by 10% in 40 years. That translates to roughly a 3.5% increase in the Democratic edge over Republicans in 40 years.
To put that in perspective, on average the increased Hispanic vote has meant around 1/3rd of 1% increased advantage for the Democrats every 4 years. Again, that is not a demographic Hispanic wave. It is barely a trickle.
|
|
|
|
Post by grant73 on Jul 8, 2020 15:30:40 GMT -8
-- "... Republicans have steadily held on to around 1/4th of Hispanic vote for at least 20 years."
Conservative Cuban-Americans in Florida were a factor. But v Trump? I think they say "Biden."
After all, no one predicted 2016 and no one had ever seen or heard the Daily Drivel that clown emits. What a stupid Pr*ck. Even Palin is smarter than Trump. Just about every one of the media talking heads on both sides of the aisle are smarter than Trump -- even the right wingers!
|
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Jul 8, 2020 15:53:07 GMT -8
From a poll in late June"The one group Biden continues to under-perform with slightly is Latinos — 59% of Latinos said they'd vote for Biden over Trump, but Clinton won 66% of their votes in 2016."
|
|
