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Post by mhbruin on Jul 6, 2020 8:58:12 GMT -8
In the past, the big game-changers have been conventions and debates. Bill Clinton's 16% bounce powered him past Bush 41, and Reagan's performance against Jimmy Carterin their first debate made him an acceptable option. 538 doesn't see the conventions as a game changer. StoryTrump didn't do well in the 2016 debates, but that was not a game-changer. Big swings happen when there are lots of undecided voters. That's not the case this year. |
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dsc
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Post by dsc on Jul 6, 2020 10:36:05 GMT -8
Were there a lot of undecided voters in 16? Like most people, I am still haunted by 16.
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Post by Born2BBruin on Jul 6, 2020 11:12:26 GMT -8
I disagree. Conventions and debates are rarely big game changers. Conventions provide bumps but the majority of the change is temporary. Debates rarely change anyone's mind.
I believe, as I've alluded to previously, that events are the biggest factors in moving voters. The recession in 2008. Hillary's emails in 2016. The Iranian hostages in 1980.
What could move the election this time: a rapid decline in COVID-19 cases and/or deaths, a rapid decline in unemployment as the economy quickly recovers, Biden getting sick, Hunter Biden being indicted, or a terrorist attack in the US, Europe or the Middle-East.
Note that in list of polls in one of yesterday's threads, the smallest spread between Biden and trump was in the only poll of likely voters, and it was only 5%, just a hair's breath from being within the margin of error.
This election is closer than most people think, or the media is characterizing it, and a big event could easily change the outcome.
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Post by mhbruin on Jul 6, 2020 11:23:37 GMT -8
Were there a lot of undecided voters in 16? Like most people, I am still haunted by 16. On this date in 2016, Hillary and Trump combined for 79.7% (42.5% to 37.2%) of the vote according to 538. Today, Biden and Trump have 93% of the vote, 51.5 vs 41.5 |
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Post by mhbruin on Jul 6, 2020 11:30:42 GMT -8
I disagree. Conventions and debates are rarely big game changers. Conventions provide bumps but the majority of the change is temporary. Debates rarely change anyone's mind. I believe, as I've alluded to previously, that events are the biggest factors in moving voters. The recession in 2008. Hillary's emails in 2016. The Iranian hostages in 1980. What could move the election this time: a rapid decline in COVID-19 cases and/or deaths, a rapid decline in unemployment as the economy quickly recovers, Biden getting sick, Hunter Biden being indicted, or a terrorist attack in the US, Europe or the Middle-East. Note that in list of polls in one of yesterday's threads, the smallest spread between Biden and trump was in the only poll of likely voters, and it was only 5%, just a hair's breath from being within the margin of error. This election is closer than most people think, or the media is characterizing it, and a big event could easily change the outcome. I agree that conventions and debates don't usually change things that much, and I don't see this as happening this year. But they have been big occasionally. The events you cite happened earlier. I don't know of a fall event having a big effect on the race. (Comey's announcement didn't move the polls that much and the race was already close.) Trump need at least a 6% gain, and it is unlikely that a big event will provide that. People have already made up their minds. |
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Post by Born2BBruin on Jul 6, 2020 11:34:09 GMT -8
Don't mistake a poll answer as an indication that people have made up their minds. A poll answer is good for the day it is made. It is not fixed and unchangeable. People's answer to who they will vote for have clearly changed in the last four months. They can just as easily change in the next four months.
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hasben
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Post by hasben on Jul 6, 2020 12:47:51 GMT -8
Don't mistake a poll answer as an indication that people have made up their minds. A poll answer is good for the day it is made. It is not fixed and unchangeable. People's answer to who they will vote for have clearly changed in the last four months. They can just as easily change in the next four months. I agree. We have to approach this as if it's neck and neck until all ballots are cast and every vote is critical. The worst possible thing for the media to do is to flaunt polls and boast of a huge Biden lead. On election day too many Biden leaners may say, heck I'm not risking the virus to go vote because he's got a huge lead and is going to win anyway. Some Hillary voters did exactly that. And you're right that lots of things can happen between now and then. We have to remember the total votes needed for Biden to win are nowhere near as solid as trump's base. Rump could shoot Pelosi on live TV and keep his 40%. That's not true for the dems. One significant and unrecoverable senior moment by Biden in a debate could scare away a number of those wavering in the middle. |
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Post by mhbruin on Jul 6, 2020 12:56:44 GMT -8
Polls 4 months out are typically a good predictor of the final vote. I linked this article earlier. LinkAlso the internal numbers in polls indicate that a pretty high percentage of voters are sure of their decision, not leaning. |
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Post by mhbruin on Jul 6, 2020 14:34:32 GMT -8
In the past, the big game-changers have been conventions and debates. Bill Clinton's 16% bounce powered him past Bush 41, and Reagan's performance against Jimmy Carter in their first debate made him an acceptable option. I left out an important fact. During the convention Ross Perot dropped out of the race. While Clinton was establishing himself as an acceptable alternative to Bush, the other change candidate left the race. Even though Perot returned to the race, he never got all those supporters back. |
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dsc
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Post by dsc on Jul 6, 2020 18:36:25 GMT -8
What could move the election this time: a rapid decline in COVID-19 cases and/or deaths, a rapid decline in unemployment as the economy quickly recovers, Biden getting sick, Hunter Biden being indicted, or a terrorist attack in the US, Europe or the Middle-East. Maybe if the Supreme Court rules in favor of making Trump's financial records public and they are as damaging and embarrassing as Democrats think they are? Can that move the election? If Trump is proven to be worth much less than he claims, then his dick is small. |
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Post by mhbruin on Jul 6, 2020 19:36:42 GMT -8
Maybe a big spike in deaths will move the election. If someone is still with Trump, I don't see anything else changing their opinion now.
And what could Trump do to win back people at this point. The few things he could do, he won't do.
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