Post by mhbruin on Jul 5, 2020 9:12:48 GMT -8
Poll of the week: A new Monmouth University poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 53% to 41% lead over President Donald Trump.
The average live interview poll conducted over the last month has Biden ahead by a similar 11-point margin.
What's the point: Usually, this is the point where someone like myself says we have four months to go until the election and polls are a snapshot in time. Both of those statements are true, but they obscure an important fact.
Polls taken around Independence Day in an election year are actually pretty highly correlated with the November results in incumbent contests. That means Trump is in a lot of trouble.
Take a look at the 13 incumbent elections dating all the way back to 1940. Usually going all the way back in time will lead you to find a lot of volatile campaigns, as more modern ones tend to be more steady.
Yet, since 1940, the final result differs from the polls at this point by an average of just 7 points. The median difference is only about 4.5 points.
Full story
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I would caution that a mean and median, without an idea of the variance isn't usually helpful. He goes on to discuss that.
And this has been the most stable race in the history of polling.
The average live interview poll conducted over the last month has Biden ahead by a similar 11-point margin.
What's the point: Usually, this is the point where someone like myself says we have four months to go until the election and polls are a snapshot in time. Both of those statements are true, but they obscure an important fact.
Polls taken around Independence Day in an election year are actually pretty highly correlated with the November results in incumbent contests. That means Trump is in a lot of trouble.
Take a look at the 13 incumbent elections dating all the way back to 1940. Usually going all the way back in time will lead you to find a lot of volatile campaigns, as more modern ones tend to be more steady.
Yet, since 1940, the final result differs from the polls at this point by an average of just 7 points. The median difference is only about 4.5 points.
Full story
=====================
I would caution that a mean and median, without an idea of the variance isn't usually helpful. He goes on to discuss that.
And this has been the most stable race in the history of polling.
