Post by mhbruin on Jul 4, 2020 8:10:27 GMT -8
"Whenever I hear an operative complain about public polling, I have just one thing to say: Put up or shut up. Release your own numbers that show the race in a different place than the public polling, or let the public polling stand. This is especially true in House races, where public polling is limited and there's a real chance to shape the conventional wisdom.
"Perhaps, it's not surprising then that when one party puts out a lot more internal polls than normal, it is good for their side. Parties tend to release good polling when they have it. Since 2004, there has been a near perfect correlation (+0.96 on a scale from -1 to +1) between the share of partisan polls released by the Democrats and the November results.
"Right now, Democrats and liberal groups are releasing a lot more surveys than Republicans, which suggests the public polling showing Democrats doing well is backed up by what the parties are seeing in their own numbers.
"Democratic and liberal aligned groups have put out 17 House polls taken in April or later. Republican aligned groups have put out 0. That's a very bad ratio for Republicans.
Full article
"Perhaps, it's not surprising then that when one party puts out a lot more internal polls than normal, it is good for their side. Parties tend to release good polling when they have it. Since 2004, there has been a near perfect correlation (+0.96 on a scale from -1 to +1) between the share of partisan polls released by the Democrats and the November results.
"Right now, Democrats and liberal groups are releasing a lot more surveys than Republicans, which suggests the public polling showing Democrats doing well is backed up by what the parties are seeing in their own numbers.
"Democratic and liberal aligned groups have put out 17 House polls taken in April or later. Republican aligned groups have put out 0. That's a very bad ratio for Republicans.
Full article
