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Post by mhbruin on Jul 2, 2020 9:03:17 GMT -8
I looked at the 538 averages. Biden leads in 13 of them. Trump leads in Iowa by 0.1% and Texas by 1.5%. Biden beats Hillary's actual vote percent by an average of 8.1%. And that is with around 8% undecided. If Biden won half of the undecideds, he would be 12% ahead of Hillary. in the 4 states most likely to decide the election: | Florida | 7.2% | | Michigan | 9.8% | | Pennsylvania | 8.1% | | Wisconsin | 8.1% |
Every day with stable polls means one less day to change the race. 78 days until voting starts. |
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Post by northbruin40 on Jul 2, 2020 9:40:01 GMT -8
So which one of these doesn't qualify:
Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Maine
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Penn
Texas
Virginia
Wisconsin
Georgia, Iowa or Ohio because they would be "gravy"
Colorado or Virginia because they have moved out of reach for Trump?
There's even 1 EV in Nebraska that's competitive.
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Post by mhbruin on Jul 2, 2020 10:00:08 GMT -8
I don't have Colorado on my list.
Although Hillary won by a modest 4.9%, 538 shows Biden up by over 17%. I suppose you could count it as a battleground. It looked competitive earlier in the year.
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Post by Born2BBruin on Jul 2, 2020 11:29:53 GMT -8
Of course, with those four flipping for Biden, it's all over; and by a bigger margin than trump beat Hillary.
But we don't have many Likely Voter polls yet, and the ones we do have are mostly from "lower quality" pollsters.
Most people expect the LV polls to move closer to trump, but we'll see.
At this point, I think the only thing that will move the polls significantly is a major news event outside the control of the candidates.
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dsc
Resident Member
Posts: 759
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Post by dsc on Jul 2, 2020 11:36:34 GMT -8
At this point, I think the only thing that will move the polls significantly is a major news event outside the control of the candidates. Like what? A major terrorist attack on US soil? Like 2020 needs more. The GOP is hoping for a Supreme court vacancy which is likely to happen after this current session is over. |
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hasben
Resident Member
Posts: 1,023
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Post by hasben on Jul 2, 2020 12:19:44 GMT -8
The GOP is hoping for a Supreme court vacancy which is likely to happen after this current session is over. There is a rumor going around that Thomas may retire just before the election so that conservs will be forced to vote for rump to preserve the court. Talk about dirty pool if that's true. |
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Post by mhbruin on Jul 2, 2020 12:46:41 GMT -8
It is hard to believe the switch from registered to likely voters will be a big game changer. Democrats and Republicans will both be highly motivated. "Less than five months before the election, more than half of Americans — 58 percent — disapprove of the president’s job while in office, according to the poll. That includes 49 percent of Americans overall who strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance. By comparison, 40 percent of Americans approve of the president’s job so far, including 26 percent who strongly approve. Among registered voters, 57 percent disapproved and 41 percent approved of the president." And more people strongly disapprove of Trump than highly approve. Source |
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dsc
Resident Member
Posts: 759
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Post by dsc on Jul 2, 2020 13:24:04 GMT -8
There is a rumor going around that Thomas may retire just before the election so that conservs will be forced to vote for rump to preserve the court. Talk about dirty pool if that's true. If Trump loses, I am sure the Senate GOP will ram through his replacement during the lame duck session. Or Thomas announces to unretire. Nothing is beneath them. The GOP needs to burn down to the ground. |
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Post by blindness on Jul 3, 2020 8:57:12 GMT -8
There is a rumor going around that Thomas may retire just before the election so that conservs will be forced to vote for rump to preserve the court. Talk about dirty pool if that's true. If Trump loses, I am sure the Senate GOP will ram through his replacement during the lame duck session. Or Thomas announces to unretire. Nothing is beneath them. The GOP needs to burn down to the ground. I heard that rumor too. It is a huge gamble ... the kind that I think Trump would find irresistable.
For this to be effective, the retirement would have to be effective post-inauguration. So the only thing they could do if they loose the election is Thomas retires earlier than he said he would. And if that's the case, say hello to court packing in 2021.
If Trump loses and Thomas leaves, we're back to the pre Kennedy retirement status quo, I think.
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Post by andyh64000 on Jul 3, 2020 10:24:02 GMT -8
If Trump loses, I am sure the Senate GOP will ram through his replacement during the lame duck session. Or Thomas announces to unretire. Nothing is beneath them. The GOP needs to burn down to the ground. I heard that rumor too. It is a huge gamble ... the kind that I think Trump would find irresistable. Trump wouldn't see it as a gamble since he doesn't give a shit about the construct of the Supreme Court beyond what it can do for him personally. |
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hasben
Resident Member
Posts: 1,023
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Post by hasben on Jul 3, 2020 12:01:03 GMT -8
dsc: If Trump loses, I am sure the Senate GOP will ram through his replacement during the lame duck session. Or Thomas announces to unretire. Nothing is beneath them. The GOP needs to burn down to the ground.
My real opinion is that Thomas has no intentions of retiring. I think some bird brain started this rumor to scare fence-sitting rump supporters into staying with the party. It really sounds like something the Russians would start on social media to help rump.
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bobinmd
Contributing Member
Posts: 51
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Post by bobinmd on Jul 4, 2020 8:01:27 GMT -8
I looked at the 538 averages. Biden leads in 13 of them. Trump leads in Iowa by 0.1% and Texas by 1.5%. Biden beats Hillary's actual vote percent by an average of 8.1%. And that is with around 8% undecided. If Biden won half of the undecideds, he would be 12% ahead of Hillary. in the 4 states most likely to decide the election: | Florida | 7.2% | | Michigan | 9.8% | | Pennsylvania | 8.1% | | Wisconsin | 8.1% |
Every day with stable polls means one less day to change the race. 78 days until voting starts. |
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bobinmd
Contributing Member
Posts: 51
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Post by bobinmd on Jul 4, 2020 8:03:34 GMT -8
I think Tammy Baldwin as Biden’s VP helps with Wisconsin. My pick.
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