Post by mhbruin on Jun 29, 2020 7:50:42 GMT -8
It takes a long time to see the full effects of bad behavior. There are four time gaps:
It is likely we still haven't seen the full effects of Memorial Day on those who were infected that weekend. It will take us even longer to see the effects of secondary infections.
This makes evaluating reopening so hard. Are we seeing effects today of Phase 1, Phase 2 or Phase 3? We don't really know.
We do know from learning theory that humans don't learn well if the effect of something is delayed. If reward or punishment is long after the action we don't learn as effectively.
- Risky activity to infection
- infection to confirmed infection
- Confirmed infection to hospitalization
- Hospitalization to death
It is likely we still haven't seen the full effects of Memorial Day on those who were infected that weekend. It will take us even longer to see the effects of secondary infections.
This makes evaluating reopening so hard. Are we seeing effects today of Phase 1, Phase 2 or Phase 3? We don't really know.
We do know from learning theory that humans don't learn well if the effect of something is delayed. If reward or punishment is long after the action we don't learn as effectively.
