Post by mhbruin on Jun 29, 2020 7:33:35 GMT -8
The polls are fairly unanimous: Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a significant advantage over President Donald Trump. On average, he's up by 10 points nationally and in the pivotal battleground state of Wisconsin.
There is time for Trump to mount a comeback, but the candidates who do come back are usually not incumbents and have never been elected incumbents in the polling era.
Since 1940, the only incumbent losing at this point in the cycle who would go on to win another term was Harry Truman. He, like Trump, was down around 10 points to Thomas Dewey in the early summer of 1948. But remember, Truman was not elected president before taking the 1948 election. He ascended to the office through the vice-presidency, after Franklin Roosevelt died in 1945.
In terms of elected incumbents, Jimmy Carter was the one to be down by as much as Trump is right now. Carter went on to get crushed by Ronald Reagan in 1980.
George H.W. Bush in 1992 was the other elected incumbent to lose reelection since 1940. At this point, he was ahead of Bill Clinton, though he found himself trailing in a number of polls to independent Ross Perot.
Both Bush and Carter had similar approval ratings to Trump now.
The fact that the only incumbent to come back (Truman) is an indication of a wider phenomenon: races without an elected incumbent running for re-election are different from ones with one. Gerald Ford was the only president not given another term with a positive net approval (approve - disapprove) rating, and he wasn't an elected incumbent.
Elected incumbent races are much more likely to be referendums on the occupant of the White House. Those without them tend to be much more of a choice between the two major party candidates.
Full story
There is time for Trump to mount a comeback, but the candidates who do come back are usually not incumbents and have never been elected incumbents in the polling era.
Since 1940, the only incumbent losing at this point in the cycle who would go on to win another term was Harry Truman. He, like Trump, was down around 10 points to Thomas Dewey in the early summer of 1948. But remember, Truman was not elected president before taking the 1948 election. He ascended to the office through the vice-presidency, after Franklin Roosevelt died in 1945.
In terms of elected incumbents, Jimmy Carter was the one to be down by as much as Trump is right now. Carter went on to get crushed by Ronald Reagan in 1980.
George H.W. Bush in 1992 was the other elected incumbent to lose reelection since 1940. At this point, he was ahead of Bill Clinton, though he found himself trailing in a number of polls to independent Ross Perot.
Both Bush and Carter had similar approval ratings to Trump now.
The fact that the only incumbent to come back (Truman) is an indication of a wider phenomenon: races without an elected incumbent running for re-election are different from ones with one. Gerald Ford was the only president not given another term with a positive net approval (approve - disapprove) rating, and he wasn't an elected incumbent.
Elected incumbent races are much more likely to be referendums on the occupant of the White House. Those without them tend to be much more of a choice between the two major party candidates.
Full story
