dsc
Resident Member
Posts: 759
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Post by dsc on Jun 26, 2020 9:57:39 GMT -8
Some of you guys track these things at the state level, so enlighten me.
Obama carried Iowa and Ohio in both 2008 and 2009. Why are they behind Georgia and Texas in his rankings (which seem credible)? Could Texas (the biggest electoral prize on the list) be really more flippable than Ohio and Iowa?
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Post by northbruin40 on Jun 26, 2020 10:44:53 GMT -8
Texas and Georgia have demographic changes and are changing from red to purple. They may be changing faster than the national demographic changes. In 2018, selected Democratic statewide candidates lost, but made it close. Iowa and Ohio used to be bellwether states, but both are loaded with Trump-friendly voters. They are two of the states Trump most outperformed with in 2016 - and won by margins close to 10%. They are both in the northern belt with a high number of Obama-to-Trump voters. I don't think either Iowa or Ohio have growing urban areas, which are where the Democrats have the best opportunity to grow votes.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 26, 2020 10:45:54 GMT -8
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Post by blublood on Jun 26, 2020 17:07:55 GMT -8
I think Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas are all a bridge too far for Democrats. But if the news media call Ohio for Biden, the rout will be on.
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Post by northbruin40 on Jun 26, 2020 17:31:13 GMT -8
I think Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas are all a bridge too far for Democrats. But if the news media call Ohio for Biden, the rout will be on. The importance for Dems in doing well in Georgia and Texas in 2020 is they are E.V. rich and with current trends extrapolated will be realistic targets in 2024. Also, might be suburban House districts that are opportunities for gains.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 26, 2020 18:23:33 GMT -8
It doesn't help Trump if he needs to defend states like these, some of which are very expensive media markets.
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Post by grant73 on Jun 26, 2020 18:46:05 GMT -8
Did Bloomberg not say (in Nevada I think) he would poor money into the DNC even if he did not get the nomination? I'd like to see those $$ into on the ground get-out the vote efforts plus down-ticket ads.
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Post by blublood on Jun 26, 2020 22:26:13 GMT -8
Bloomberg isn't just going to hand a load of money to the DNC. As billionaires do, he wants to run his own operation. He hasn't explained what he wants to do. But he wants access to Democratic data, including voter lists.
Democrats are hesitant to provide the lists because they don't know his intentions for 2021 and beyond. After all, he is not a Democrat.
So, there's a bit of a standoff. I'd like him to write a billion-dollar check to the Lincoln Project and be done with it. But it's his money.
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Post by grant73 on Jun 27, 2020 4:27:33 GMT -8
-- " . . . they don't know his intentions for 2021 and beyond. After all, he is not a Democrat." --
Surely after the Liz Warren fricassee he can't possibly be thinking he can win an election any more! We can use the money down-ticket in many Senate and House races.
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Post by blublood on Jun 27, 2020 5:59:51 GMT -8
I'm not justifying the concern, just explaining why Bloomberg's largesse may have been stalled.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 27, 2020 7:26:51 GMT -8
"Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. is placing its first TV ad spending in Georgia. Start date is tomorrow, 6/27" They are also running ads in Texas.
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dsc
Resident Member
Posts: 759
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Post by dsc on Jun 29, 2020 22:17:11 GMT -8
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