Post by northbruin40 on Jun 25, 2020 9:43:44 GMT -8
I've been tracking the state polls as they come out (in a thread on page 2), but since so many state polls (19 !) came out today it's worth a new thread. Some state polls are from high quality sources as rated by 538. It's not just that Biden has leads in these polls, but he is consistently doing better than the 538 state forecasts for 2016. A few polls seem to be outliers/questionable.
Just from today's results, it would suggest many key swing states are tracking the national polling, rather than the idea it's closer in the swingers than the national polling. I have been asking for some time is Biden's apparent favorable position in the national polling just from "making the rubble bounce" in states he was already going to win, or is it 1-to-1 proportional in the swingers. It's increasingly looking like it is proportional. If the 2016 state "error" in prediction can be extrapolated to 2020, you want to lead by more than 4.5 in the polling to feel safe - that may be happening in enough key states.
From the 19 state polls on June 25, Biden is averaging 6.8% better than the 538 prediction for 2016. 538 predicted Clinton to win the popular vote by 3.6% in 2016. So if you add 3.6% + 6.8% = 10.4% - which is similar to the 9.5% 538 currently Biden has in the national polling. It doesn't support the idea that Biden's apparent lead is just exaggerating the "overvote" factor. Instead, the state polling in battleground states is following the national trend.
Here are the state polls from the last week
State ..actual-2016-margin new-poll versus-538-in-2016
June 19:
N. Carolina . 3.66 ... 3% ...... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > Poll vs. 2016-538 T+2.3
June 20:
Minnesota -1.52% ... -16% ... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.8 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B+10.2
June 22:
Michigan . 0.23 ..... -1% ...... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 T + 4.3
Alabama 27.72 .... 14% ....... <538 2016 prediction T by 22.4 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B+8.4
June 23:
Texas ..... 8.99 .... 2% ....... <538 2016 prediction T by 8.5> Poll vs. 2016-538 B+ 6.5
June 24:
Wisconsin 0.77 .... -8% ...... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B +2.7
N. Carolina 3.66 .. -2% ...... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +1.3
Ohio ...... 8.13 .... -1% ...... <538 2016 prediction T by 1.9 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B+2.9
June 25:
Texas ........ 8.99 .... -1% ..... <538 2016 prediction T by 8.5> Poll vs. 2016-538 B+ 9.5
N. Carolina . 3.66 ... -2% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +1.3
Georgia ... 5.13 ...... -2% .... <538 2016 prediction T by 4.0 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +6.0
Florida ...... 1.20 .... -9% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.6 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +8.4
Michigan . 0.23 .... -18% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 12.7
Wisconsin 0.77 ...... -9% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B +3.7
N. Carolina . 3.66 .. -9% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +8.3
Florida ...... 1.20 .... -6% .... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.6 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +5.4
N. Carolina . 3.66 .. -6% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +5.3
Arizona .... 3.54 .... -4% ..... <538 2016 prediction T by 2.2 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +6.2
Michigan . 0.23 .... -11% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 5.7
Michigan . 0.23 .... -11% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 5.7
Pennsyl. .. 0.72 ... -10% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 3.7> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 6.3
Wisconsin 0.77 .... -17% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B +11.7
Pennsyl. .. 0.72 ... -10% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 3.7> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 6.3
Arizona .... 3.54 ... -7% ..... <538 2016 prediction T by 2.2 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +9.2
Florida ...... 1.20... -4% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.6 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +3.4
Wisconsin 0.77 ....-11% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B +5.7
June 28
Wisconsin 0.77 ..... 1% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 T + 6.3
June 29
Georgia ... 5.13 ..... -4% .... <538 2016 prediction T by 4.0 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +8.0
Pennsyl. .. 0.72 .... -6% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 3.7> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 2.3
June 30
N.Y. ....... -22.49 .. -25% ... <538 2016 prediction C by 19.0 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +6.0
Missouri.. 18.63 .... -2% .... <538 2016 prediction T by 10.0 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +12.0
N. Carolina 3.66 .... -1% .... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > . Poll vs. 2016-538 B +0.3
Just from today's results, it would suggest many key swing states are tracking the national polling, rather than the idea it's closer in the swingers than the national polling. I have been asking for some time is Biden's apparent favorable position in the national polling just from "making the rubble bounce" in states he was already going to win, or is it 1-to-1 proportional in the swingers. It's increasingly looking like it is proportional. If the 2016 state "error" in prediction can be extrapolated to 2020, you want to lead by more than 4.5 in the polling to feel safe - that may be happening in enough key states.
From the 19 state polls on June 25, Biden is averaging 6.8% better than the 538 prediction for 2016. 538 predicted Clinton to win the popular vote by 3.6% in 2016. So if you add 3.6% + 6.8% = 10.4% - which is similar to the 9.5% 538 currently Biden has in the national polling. It doesn't support the idea that Biden's apparent lead is just exaggerating the "overvote" factor. Instead, the state polling in battleground states is following the national trend.
Here are the state polls from the last week
State ..actual-2016-margin new-poll versus-538-in-2016
June 19:
N. Carolina . 3.66 ... 3% ...... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > Poll vs. 2016-538 T+2.3
June 20:
Minnesota -1.52% ... -16% ... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.8 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B+10.2
June 22:
Michigan . 0.23 ..... -1% ...... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 T + 4.3
Alabama 27.72 .... 14% ....... <538 2016 prediction T by 22.4 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B+8.4
June 23:
Texas ..... 8.99 .... 2% ....... <538 2016 prediction T by 8.5> Poll vs. 2016-538 B+ 6.5
June 24:
Wisconsin 0.77 .... -8% ...... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B +2.7
N. Carolina 3.66 .. -2% ...... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +1.3
Ohio ...... 8.13 .... -1% ...... <538 2016 prediction T by 1.9 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B+2.9
June 25:
Texas ........ 8.99 .... -1% ..... <538 2016 prediction T by 8.5> Poll vs. 2016-538 B+ 9.5
N. Carolina . 3.66 ... -2% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +1.3
Georgia ... 5.13 ...... -2% .... <538 2016 prediction T by 4.0 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +6.0
Florida ...... 1.20 .... -9% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.6 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +8.4
Michigan . 0.23 .... -18% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 12.7
Wisconsin 0.77 ...... -9% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B +3.7
N. Carolina . 3.66 .. -9% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +8.3
Florida ...... 1.20 .... -6% .... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.6 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +5.4
N. Carolina . 3.66 .. -6% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +5.3
Arizona .... 3.54 .... -4% ..... <538 2016 prediction T by 2.2 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +6.2
Michigan . 0.23 .... -11% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 5.7
Michigan . 0.23 .... -11% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 5.7
Pennsyl. .. 0.72 ... -10% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 3.7> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 6.3
Wisconsin 0.77 .... -17% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B +11.7
Pennsyl. .. 0.72 ... -10% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 3.7> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 6.3
Arizona .... 3.54 ... -7% ..... <538 2016 prediction T by 2.2 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +9.2
Florida ...... 1.20... -4% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.6 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +3.4
Wisconsin 0.77 ....-11% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B +5.7
June 28
Wisconsin 0.77 ..... 1% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 T + 6.3
June 29
Georgia ... 5.13 ..... -4% .... <538 2016 prediction T by 4.0 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +8.0
Pennsyl. .. 0.72 .... -6% ..... <538 2016 prediction C by 3.7> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 2.3
June 30
N.Y. ....... -22.49 .. -25% ... <538 2016 prediction C by 19.0 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +6.0
Missouri.. 18.63 .... -2% .... <538 2016 prediction T by 10.0 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +12.0
N. Carolina 3.66 .... -1% .... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > . Poll vs. 2016-538 B +0.3