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Post by mhbruin on Jun 25, 2020 8:13:24 GMT -8
Consider this cart:  There are 2 other years with a candidate polling over 50% at this time, 1972 and 1984. In 1972, Nixon won 61% of the popular vote and 503 EVs. In 1984, Reagan won 59% of the popular vote and 525 EVs. Everything looks bad for Trump, and he cannot change what he does. 208 days to Inauguration. |
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Post by Born2BBruin on Jun 25, 2020 8:43:05 GMT -8
Playing devil's advocate, that chart has 14 data points (or 28, depending on how you want to look at it), which really isn't statistically significant.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 25, 2020 9:35:39 GMT -8
You are right. Extrapolating from past elections doesn't provide enough data points. But this fits with a pattern of other data. Here are more data points. 6 swing state pollsFWIW, Sienna College is rated A+ by 538. |
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Post by northbruin40 on Jun 25, 2020 10:11:57 GMT -8
Your grandfather was used to elections being landslides. For the 17 elections from 1920 to 1984 the winner won by at least 7.5% 13 times, and by more than 15% 9 times.
Since then, Presidential elections have been much closer.
2016 -2.1%
2012 3.9%
2008 7.2%
2004 2.4%
2000 -0.5%
1996 8.5%
1992 5.6%
1988 7.8%
So consistent polling close to a 10% lead is a very big lead these days.
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dsc
Resident Member
Posts: 759
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Post by dsc on Jun 25, 2020 10:59:39 GMT -8
As I suspected, Bush Sr's come-from-behind in 88 was the biggest. Trump has a chance to top that.
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