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Post by mhbruin on Jun 22, 2020 15:33:56 GMT -8
No matter where you look, you see the same things:
1) The nation polls.
2) Polls of individual states
3) The generic congressional ballot
4) Trump's approval ratings
5) The 2018 midterm results
6) Polls of key Senate races
7) Non-poll prediction models based on factors like the economy.
In 2016, 538 never showed Hillary above 45% in their average. She got 48% of the vote. Biden is currently above 50%.
There are fewer undecided voters than in 2016, and not enough to reasonably sway the outcome.
This one is in the refrigerator, The Jello is jiggling.
211 days to inauguration.
(Feel free to make the mandatory comment about over-confidence.)
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Post by andyh64000 on Jun 22, 2020 16:45:11 GMT -8
Are there enough swing states with Democratic Governors and Secretary of States to provide Biden with enough EVs to win? If not, nothing is in the refrigerator because Trump has no problem cheating. All they need to do is what they are doing in Kentucky now (and have done in the past) and make sure they limit the number of voting machines in democratic strongholds to minimize the number of votes that can be cast. It is math. If you need to make sure votes from certain precincts total less than 100K then only have voting machines that can count a maximum of that many votes.
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hasben
Resident Member
Posts: 1,023
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Post by hasben on Jun 22, 2020 16:55:51 GMT -8
We already know Biden will win the popular vote and probably by a bigger margin than Clinton. But all that matters is a few swing states and if they are red states I wouldn't bet the house either way. We have no idea how much effect corrupt gop'ers and foreign influence will have.
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Post by Born2BBruin on Jun 22, 2020 18:02:29 GMT -8
Why NOT to believe the polls.
#1. The price of liberty is eternal vigilance. We cannot take our eyes off the prize even for one second.
#2. The Cheney (1%) Doctrine. If there's a 1% chance that trump can win the election, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response. It's not about the polls... It's about the response.
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Post by blublood on Jun 22, 2020 18:31:11 GMT -8
First, saying polls today are accurate isn't predicting what they will be in November. Today is not election day.
Second, another bit of confirming data is PredictIt, where folks who know something that contradicts the polls are free to bet the other way.
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Post by Born2BBruin on Jun 22, 2020 18:40:06 GMT -8
...another bit of confirming data is PredictIt, where folks who know something that contradicts the polls are free to bet the other way. PredictIt currently has Biden $0.58 to $0.43 for trump, so a bigger margin than the polls. |
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Post by blindness on Jun 22, 2020 22:37:15 GMT -8
If everyone who wants to vote gets the chance to vote and if the votes are being counted correctly and with no hacking, then yes, Trump is done.
However...
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Post by blindness on Jun 22, 2020 23:13:25 GMT -8
I mean... If they're going to open a *single* polling place in Jefferson County, KY, with its 650,000+ population... These primaries are just the dress rehearsal for what they can get away with in November.
This is fra from a done deal. We need to keep the focus on polling places and all the shenanigans they're planning.
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dsc
Resident Member
Posts: 759
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Post by dsc on Jun 23, 2020 0:12:49 GMT -8
I smell a huge Trump comeback and the media will eat it up. This barrage of troubles are just a prelude to it. We have a long summer ahead of us.
Don't. Get. Cocky.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 23, 2020 7:34:25 GMT -8
Cheating and suppression can steal a close election. This one doesn't look close.
Normally 4.5 months is an eternity in politics. However, this race has been historically stable. No other President has had such a stable approval rating.
Also, there is a remarkably low number of undecided voters for June.
There will be a zillion dollars spent. There will be hours of hyping every little story on news shows. And it won't matter.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 23, 2020 8:19:26 GMT -8
More corroborating evidence. Follow the money.
"As Trump was on stage in Tulsa, his campaign filed its most recent financial report with the Federal Election Commission, revealing that it had brought in just under $25 million last month, well short of the nearly $37 million in receipts reported by the Biden campaign. The real concerns for the Trump campaign, though, were in the details. For the second time in three months, Biden’s campaign reported beating Trump’s in small dollar donations, both in terms of gross receipts—Biden more than tripled the $5.4 million that Trump brought in in May from donations of under $200—and as a share of total individual contributions. All told, 38.2 percent of individual donations to the Trump campaign in May came via contributions of less than $200, compared to 47.2 percent for Biden. [...]
"Even as a coronavirus-induced recession hammered American pocketbooks, Biden’s small dollar fundraising has exploded. His campaign brought in nearly $20 million from donations of under $200 in March, according to its FEC filings. That was more than the Trump campaign has ever reported raising from small-dollar contributions in a single reporting period. And Biden has largely kept up the momentum. In March, an aide said, his average donation was $40; by April it was $32, and by May it was $30. The campaign had tripled the number of online donors since February.
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Post by Born2BBruin on Jun 23, 2020 8:57:20 GMT -8
Late last year and at the beginning of this one, when the Democratic field was still wide open, trump and his supporters were touting the fact he was leading all of the Democratic candidates by a wide margin in terms of donations.
But that was individual candidates. The combined donations for the Democrats was much higher than what trump was bringing in at the time. It didn't take a rocket scientist to see there was more money out there for the eventual Dem nominee than trump was going to be able to raise.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 23, 2020 9:18:13 GMT -8
Out-raising an incumbent President is a bigger deal.
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Post by blublood on Jun 23, 2020 14:05:03 GMT -8
Out-raising an incumbent President is a bigger deal. Or, as Biden might say, a big . . . |
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Post by grant73 on Jun 23, 2020 18:35:11 GMT -8
-- "Or, as Biden might say, a big . . ." --
Hey, don't make fun, he's probably a hoops fan, and we have made "big" a stand-alone noun!
"Jared So-and-so is one of the best 'bigs' in the association!"
And don't forget the promise of Bloomberg donations. He promised to um, "aid" the party's nominee.
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