|
|
Post by mhbruin on Jun 21, 2020 10:40:18 GMT -8
Apparently he is so well hidden, it is as if he doesn't exist. Poll analysis |
|
|
|
Post by northbruin40 on Jun 21, 2020 11:41:27 GMT -8
Really, the issue is in the states. Nationally, 538 predicted in 2016 Clinton would win the popular vote by 3.6% and the results ended up by 2.09%. The forecast was off by an amount well within historical rates of error. But the Trump "overvote" compared to the 538 forecast in key states was
Iowa + 6.5
Ohio + 6.2
Wisconsin + 6.2
Maine + 4.5
Michigan + 4.4
North Carolina + 4.4
Pennsylvania + 4.4
Minnesota + 4.3
New Hampshire + 3.2
Any "Shy Trump" or voter demographic errors in those states had a huge effect, and it all worked in Trump's favor
In other states:
Florida + 1.8
Arizona + 1.1
Georgia + 1.1
Texas + 0.5
Virginia + 0.2
Nevada - 0.3
Colorado - 0.5
The forecast error was small.
I wonder how much the errors have been corrected for this time in polling of the states where the error was larger in 2016?
|
|
|
|
Post by grant73 on Jun 21, 2020 12:32:15 GMT -8
In 2016 "they hardly knew him." And some were still ashamed.
|
|
