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Post by mhbruin on Jun 18, 2020 7:10:55 GMT -8
I read this today:
"Nikola Motors (NKLA), recently IPOed, nearly doubled in price and saw its market cap match Ford (NYSE:F) very briefly. This is a company that isn't expected to see significant revenue until 2023 and likely won't turn a profit until several years after that."
Does this sound like the peak of the dot-com bubble?
I do not trust this market rally.
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Post by sagobob on Jun 18, 2020 13:43:25 GMT -8
I read this today: "Nikola Motors (NKLA), recently IPOed, nearly doubled in price and saw its market cap match Ford (NYSE:F) very briefly. This is a company that isn't expected to see significant revenue until 2023 and likely won't turn a profit until several years after that." Does this sound like the peak of the dot-com bubble? I do not trust this market rally. When the bird in the bush is valued almost as much as the bird in hand, then something's wrong. Who or what is driving up those prices? Here's what Bloomberg has to say about Nikola Motors. Sound familiar? (NOTE: when I checked the link, it gave me a 404 error message, which probably means it's behind a paywall). www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-17/nikola-s-founder-exaggerated-the-capability-of-his-debut-truck |
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Post by spartacus on Jun 18, 2020 20:55:54 GMT -8
are there any professional investment guys here? i don't trust this market either, i think a huge drop is coming late summer or early fall. i'm 10 years from retirement and the 401k is 70/30 stock mutuals vs. bonds. i want to turn the stocks into cash before the fall. am i crazy??
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 18, 2020 21:29:16 GMT -8
are there any professional investment guys here? i don't trust this market either, i think a huge drop is coming late summer or early fall. i'm 10 years from retirement and the 401k is 70/30 stock mutuals vs. bonds. i want to turn the stocks into cash before the fall. am i crazy?? Your big mistake is thinking professionals know what is going to happen. You can find an expert who will predict a huge rally or the end of the world. I have worked for a few hedge funds, but i don't know how to time the market. NOBODY does. You are not crazy, but you could be wrong. There are always risks in investing. So ignore what I am about to write. I think there is a lot more room for this market to drop than to advance. The potential risks are bigger than the potential rewards. FWIW |
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hasben
Resident Member
Posts: 1,024
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Post by hasben on Jun 19, 2020 6:15:31 GMT -8
are there any professional investment guys here? i don't trust this market either, i think a huge drop is coming late summer or early fall. i'm 10 years from retirement and the 401k is 70/30 stock mutuals vs. bonds. i want to turn the stocks into cash before the fall. am i crazy?? I am not a professional but I've been investing for a long time, and I've done quite well. The one piece of advice I give to everyone is always keep enough of your portfolio invested in liquid assets (short-term bonds) to last you 5 years. That would weather most down markets. Other than that because of what mhb said about being impossible to time the market I'd leave the rest of it invested if it's in solid investments and not highly speculative ones. |
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Post by grant73 on Jun 19, 2020 7:10:01 GMT -8
Car guys know that the well-capitalized players who have known marketing to the sheelz buyers for decades will end up with the majority of the "sparky" sales, losing only the elite "window-shopping" "look what we hip cats bought! We are GREEN and KOOL." And again, this wave of the future is already 2 years behind newsies' predictions and will not reach 50% of the road population until 2030 if that. So think long term.
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Post by Born2BBruin on Jun 19, 2020 12:12:25 GMT -8
I'm 10 years from retirement and the 401k is 70/30 stock mutuals vs. bonds. i want to turn the stocks into cash before the fall. am i crazy?? I'm in about the same boat as you. I plan to retire in 10 years. I have multiple 401k's, all invested in index funds. I have some non-retirement investments in mutual and bond funds. And I also have SS and a pension plan, but the pension plan won't pay me much. The most recent market crashes all reached their pre-crash peaks within 5 years, so Ben's advice about having some money in bonds for that period of time seems wise. After the great crash of 1929; however, the market took 25 years to return to its previous peak. But some analysts now claim most stocks had recovered within 4-5 years. Therefore, from a pure investment perspective, my inclination is to leave my money where it is. Whatever happens, I won't need it for 10 more years. However, this is probably not that last bad thing that's going to happen over the next 10 years. And more to the point, all of this analysis assumes I keep my current job. But if I get laid off or fired, the likelihood I'd find another job in my current salary range is pretty low. And we remodeled our house last year, so there's a mortgage to add into the equation. So the two things I need to figure out are: - How much money do I need from my 401k's to live in the style I'd like to become accustomed to?
- Which 401k's would I take money from first if I suddenly become "retired" sooner than I planned?
The 401k's in number 2 will get converted to bond funds, or some other stable investment.
Unless the answer to number 1 is an amount I already have, then everything else will stay where it is, for now, or the next 5 years, when I'll start converting more to stable investments.
I'm not recommending you do the same. Just sharing my thinking process. And I'm glad you got me thinking about it, because I need to take care of question 2 right away.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 19, 2020 13:09:58 GMT -8
One comment: If you are retiring in 10 years, your effective financial horizon is much longer. It is somewhere between your retirement age and your expected life span. You need to consider how you will do over the next 50 years or so as well.
BTW, I hate one-size-fits-all advice like use your age as your percent of bonds. Everyone's situation is so unique.
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Post by spartacus on Jun 28, 2020 12:39:56 GMT -8
so i pulled the trigger last week and switched about 20% of my 401k to cash. i want to do more, but am too timid. my guess is late summer or early fall for a significant dow sell-off, as wall street recognizes the effects of record unemployment. we'll see.
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