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Post by mhbruin on Jun 15, 2020 13:33:50 GMT -8
There is a new poll showing Trump up by 2%. He won in 2016 by 27%.
Meanwhile Trump's diapproval tops 55%, a level hr hasn't seen since January 2019 during the government shutdown.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 15, 2020 15:01:12 GMT -8
There is also this:
Nate Silver @natesilver538
ยท
Jun 13
We'll have our national and state polling averages coming out soon.
Note that these are polling averages only; they're NOT yet blended with any sort of demographic priors.
Jun 13
National: Biden +7.6
CO: Biden +15.6
ME: Biden +12.4
VA: Biden +9.5
MI: Biden +8.2
NE-2: Biden +7.4
NH: Biden +6.6
WI: Biden +5.9
NV: Biden +5.7
MN: Biden +5.5
PA: Biden +3.7
AZ: Biden +3.6
FL: Biden +3.5
NC: Biden +2.0
OH: Biden +1.6
GA: TIE
TX: Trump +1.4
IA: Trump +1.6
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Post by northbruin40 on Jun 15, 2020 15:32:33 GMT -8
I've been waiting for state polls to come out since Trump's favorable rating hit a minimum about a weak into June. There haven't been many since that time for the battleground states. What I'm looking for is a clear pattern where Trump is doing worse, not just compared to the 2016 final results, but compared to the 2016 538 prediction. So far (again, not many polls) Trump hasn't really been doing much worse than the 538 prediction in the battleground states, but we really need more results to come in.
Of course, I'm also wondering in "likely voter" models have they already been corrected for 2016, or are they using the same model that didn't work so well in 2016?
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 15, 2020 16:08:14 GMT -8
Some pollsters have corrected their LV models for education (which was the problem in 2016). Some have not.
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