Post by northbruin40 on Jun 11, 2020 9:04:43 GMT -8
OK, this is how I break it down:
There are 20 states (mostly small states) where Trump won overwhelmingly in 2016 (59.1% to 35.1%, 6,289,991 vote margin) they represent 126 electoral votes. I consider those already in the bank for Trump. Then come 16 "competitive" states. The others are probably out of reach for Trump.
The 16 states, representing 221 electoral votes, are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin. What polling there has been suggests Iowa, Ohio, and Texas are more competitive than they were in 2016 when Trump won by 8-10%, so I'm including them.
Trump would need to at least 144 electoral votes of those 221. A small caveat is a couple of small states split their EV's and a small number of electors could "go rogue" so there could be a small +/- factor here.
I'm very much looking forward to seeing polls from those states in the wake of Trump's recent ratings decrease. We really haven't seen much state polling recently. I believe there was some very favorable polling for Biden from Michigan late last week, but we need to see more to really get a grasp of this.
Edit: I didn't see this article before, but it has many similarities:
www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/politics/electoral-college-2020-election/index.html
There are 20 states (mostly small states) where Trump won overwhelmingly in 2016 (59.1% to 35.1%, 6,289,991 vote margin) they represent 126 electoral votes. I consider those already in the bank for Trump. Then come 16 "competitive" states. The others are probably out of reach for Trump.
The 16 states, representing 221 electoral votes, are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin. What polling there has been suggests Iowa, Ohio, and Texas are more competitive than they were in 2016 when Trump won by 8-10%, so I'm including them.
Trump would need to at least 144 electoral votes of those 221. A small caveat is a couple of small states split their EV's and a small number of electors could "go rogue" so there could be a small +/- factor here.
I'm very much looking forward to seeing polls from those states in the wake of Trump's recent ratings decrease. We really haven't seen much state polling recently. I believe there was some very favorable polling for Biden from Michigan late last week, but we need to see more to really get a grasp of this.
Edit: I didn't see this article before, but it has many similarities:
www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/politics/electoral-college-2020-election/index.html
