State Polls out since June 4

northbruin40
Resident Member

Posts: 554

State Polls out since June 4 Jun 9, 2020 9:14:20 GMT -8

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Post by northbruin40 on Jun 9, 2020 9:14:20 GMT -8

State 2016-Margin new-poll

Iowa ........... 9.41 .......... 0% ...... [2016 polls Trump by 3.0]

Kentucky .....29.84 .........17%

Tenn. ...........26.00 .........9%

Mich. .............0.23 ....... -12% ....... [2016 polls Clinton by 3.4]

Oklahoma .. 36.39 ....... 19% .......

Texas .......... 8.99 ............ 0% ...... <538 2016 prediction T by 8.5>

Iowa ........... 9.41 ............ 1% ........ <538 2016 prediction T by 2.9>

N. Carolina . 3.66 ............ -4% ....... [2016 polls Trump by 1.0]

Calif. .......... -30.11 ........ -24% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 23.0>

add Mich. 0.23 .......... -15% ......... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3>

added June 11:
Florida ...... 1.20 ..... -3% ....... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.6 >
Georgia .... 5.13 ...... 4% ........ <538 2016 prediction T by 4.0 >

added June 13:
Missouri ....18.63 ..... 8% ........ < 538 2016 prediction T by 10.0 >

added June 14 (I find this one hard to believe):
Arkansas .. 26.92 ..... 2% ....... <538 2016 prediction T by 20.7>

added June 15
Iowa .........9.41 ...... 1% ........ < 538 2016 prediction T by 2.9 >

added June 16
Arizona ... 3.54 ...... -4% ........ <538 2016 prediction T by 2.2 >
Georgia ... 5.13 ...... -2% ....... <538 2016 prediction T by 4.0 >
New Mexico -8.22 ... -14% ...... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.8 >
Michigan . 0.23 ...... -13% ....... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3>
Michigan . 0.23 ...... -13% ....... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3>
Michigan . 0.23 ...... -16% ....... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3>
Florida ...... 1.20 .... -11% ....... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.6 >
Florida ...... 1.20 .... -10% ....... <538 2016 prediction C by 0.6 >
Michigan . 0.23 ...... -16% ....... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3>
Mississip. 17.83 ..... 10% .......  <538 2016 prediction T by 13.1>

added June 17
Arizona ... 3.54 ...... -1% ........ <538 2016 prediction T by 2.2 >
N. Carolina . 3.66 ....-2% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 >
Michigan . 0.23 ...... -2% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3>
Wisconsin 0.77 ...... -4% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3>
Florida ..... 1.20 .... -7% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 0.6 >
Pennsyl. .. 0.72 ..... -3% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 3.7 >

June 17 discussion: These polls were all by Change Research which has C- rating by 538. In general this was "good news" for Trump in that although he trailed in all these states, most were very competitive and well within historical prediction errors. The Michigan results don't coincide with other Michigan polls that show Biden with a solid (or more) lead. The best news for Biden is the 7% lead in Florida. The Change Research national poll has Biden with 10% point lead among likely voters, which is in-line with other national polls. I'm still waiting to see some polls from the "lean" Democratic states such as Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia to see if those are still battleground-ish or if they have drifted to 10%-ish Biden leads. Those states were close to the national polling average in 2016.

Additional commentary: Change Research which released a series of polls on June 17 seems to lean Trump compared to other state polls. From two weeks ago the changes are actually in favor of Biden: North Carolina +1%, Arizona +2%, Florida +4%, Penn. +7%, Michigan no change, Wisconsin +4%

June 18:
Kentucky 29.84 ...... 20% ........ <538 2016 prediction T by 18.2>  Poll vs. 2016-538 B+1.8
New Hamp. -0.37 ... -7% ....... <538 2016 prediction C by 3.6 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B+3.4
Utah ....... 18.08 ..... 8% ........ <538 2016 prediction T by 10.6 >  Poll vs. 2016-538 B+2.6

June 19:
N. Carolina . 3.66 .... 3% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > Poll vs. 2016-538 T+2.3

June 20:
Minnesota -1.52% .... -16% .... <538 2016 prediction C by 5.8 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B+10.2

June 22:
Michigan . 0.23 ...... -1% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3>   Poll vs. 2016-538 T + 4.3
Alabama 27.72 ...... 14% ....... <538 2016 prediction T by 22.4 >  Poll vs. 2016-538 B+8.4

June 23:
Texas ........ 8.99 ...... 2% ...... <538 2016 prediction T by 8.5> Poll vs. 2016-538 B+ 6.5

June 24:
Wisconsin 0.77 ...... -8% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B +2.7
N. Carolina . 3.66 .. -2% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +1.3
Ohio ...... 8.13 ..... -1% ........ <538 2016 prediction T by 1.9 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B+2.9

June 25:
Texas ........ 8.99 .... -1% ...... <538 2016 prediction T by 8.5> Poll vs. 2016-538 B+ 9.5
N. Carolina . 3.66 ... -2% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +1.3
Georgia ... 5.13 ...... -2% ....... <538 2016 prediction T by 4.0 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +6.0
Florida ...... 1.20 .... -9% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 0.6 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +8.4
Michigan . 0.23 .... -18% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 12.7
Wisconsin 0.77 ...... -9% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B +3.7
N. Carolina . 3.66 .. -9% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +8.3
Florida ...... 1.20 .... -6% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 0.6 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +5.4
N. Carolina . 3.66 .. -6% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 0.7 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +5.3
Arizona .... 3.54 .... -4% ........ <538 2016 prediction T by 2.2 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +6.2
Michigan . 0.23 .... -11% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 5.7
Michigan . 0.23 .... -11% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 5.7
Pennsyl. .. 0.72 .... -10% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 3.7> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 6.3
Wisconsin 0.77 ..... -17% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B +11.7
Pennsyl. .. 0.72 .... -10% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 3.7> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 6.3
Arizona .... 3.54 .... -7% ........ <538 2016 prediction T by 2.2 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +9.2
Florida ...... 1.20 .... -4% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 0.6 > Poll vs. 2016-538 B +3.4
Wisconsin 0.77 ..... -11% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 5.3> Poll vs. 2016-538 B +5.7
Pennsyl. .. 0.72 .... -12% ........ <538 2016 prediction C by 3.7> Poll vs. 2016-538 B + 8.3

These are mostly red states for which new polls are available since June 4 on 538.

A few things that stand out - perhaps in huge overvote states (California and Oklahoma) the polls tend to underestimate the margin?
Trump seems to be losing ground in red strates, rather than his poor approval rating rather than just his poor approval ratings are just losing more ground in blue states.
I don't have the final poll projections for 2016, but it would be interesting to compare. I doubt the poll margin was 30.11% in California prior to election day November 2016.

I like to do this to see how the national polls are actually showing up on the state level. Could use more swing state polls. I believe this supports the swing seen in national approval rating and national Presidential polls.

Trump continues to lose ground to the 538 prediction in state polls in the competitive states.

Last Edit: Jun 25, 2020 14:51:03 GMT -8 by northbruin40

northbruin40
Resident Member

Posts: 554

State Polls out since June 4 Jun 16, 2020 7:23:07 GMT -8

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Post by northbruin40 on Jun 16, 2020 7:23:07 GMT -8

I bumped this because a bunch of state polls came in this morning. There haven't been many state polls in swing states since Trump's unavailability rating peaked this month.

What I find interesting is not the change in poor poll numbers for Trump in the current poll vs. 2016 result, but the change in current poll vs. 2016 prediction by 538. So if even there is the same prediction error as 2016, there still is an important change. I state polls I still want to most see are from Pennsylvania. There are now multiple polls saying Trump's position in Michigan has significantly weakened, and it may even have moved from "lean" blue to "likely" blue (of course Cook and others are very reluctant to move their positions). If both Michigan and Penn flip, and all else stays the same, it puts Trump at 270, where just one "unfaithful elector" could send it to the House. In January 2017 he had the House on his side - this is a different story.

dsc Resident Member Posts: 759	State Polls out since June 4 Jun 16, 2020 9:51:24 GMT -8 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by dsc on Jun 16, 2020 9:51:24 GMT -8 What is the third column for?

mhbruin
Executive Member

Posts: 11,154

State Polls out since June 4 Jun 16, 2020 10:23:31 GMT -8

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Post by mhbruin on Jun 16, 2020 10:23:31 GMT -8

It is also interesting that state and national polls line up. An 8% difference nationally seems to move most states around 8%.

Also Trump's vote in each state closely matches his approval in that state. If pollsters have it wrong, they are all making the same mistake.

Born2BBruin
Resident Member

Posts: 943

State Polls out since June 4 Jun 16, 2020 10:25:18 GMT -8

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Post by Born2BBruin on Jun 16, 2020 10:25:18 GMT -8

Jun 16, 2020 7:23:07 GMT -8 northbruin40 said:

If both Michigan and Penn flip, and all else stays the same, it puts Trump at 270, where just one "unfaithful elector" could send it to the House. In January 2017 he had the House on his side - this is a different story.

If the House has to decide a presidential election, each state gets one vote. Republicans are the majority party in a majority of states, so they would have the advantage.

Dems, or just plain trump haters, do NOT want the 2020 election decided by the House.

northbruin40
Resident Member

Posts: 554

State Polls out since June 4 Jun 16, 2020 13:19:26 GMT -8

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Post by northbruin40 on Jun 16, 2020 13:19:26 GMT -8

Jun 16, 2020 9:51:24 GMT -8 dsc said:

What is the third column for?

First column is state. 2nd column is 2016 actual result. 3rd column is recent state poll. That is followed by the 538 forecast from 2016. I think it is especially significant when a shift is seen not just from the 2016 result to a recent poll, but also from the old 538 prediction to now. I don't know if the old 2016 bias is still there, but even if it is there a comparison of recent state polls to 538 gives an idea of Biden's standing compared to Clinton.

I have been curious whether Biden's standing in the polls compared to Clinton was simply "making the rubble bounce" by shifting the vote in states Clinton had already won easy? Or was it the 20 states where Trump clobbered Clinton so a change there really doesn't matter. Or was it in the key states where electoral votes are most at stake? As mh notes, Trumps falling approval rating seems to be showing up proportionately in the battleground states.

Post by northbruin40 on Jun 9, 2020 9:14:20 GMT -8

Post by northbruin40 on Jun 16, 2020 7:23:07 GMT -8

Post by dsc on Jun 16, 2020 9:51:24 GMT -8

Post by mhbruin on Jun 16, 2020 10:23:31 GMT -8

Post by Born2BBruin on Jun 16, 2020 10:25:18 GMT -8

Post by northbruin40 on Jun 16, 2020 13:19:26 GMT -8