Post by mhbruin on Apr 3, 2024 13:07:01 GMT -8
CHANGES
6/6 Kanon Catchings decommits from the Boilermakers
====================
Here's another Purdue season preview
The Purdue Boilermakers finished first in the Big Ten, got a #1 Seed in the NCAA tournament, and went to the Championship game, before losing to UConn. They are coached by Matt Painter who has finally shed the title of "best coach who has never made the Final Four"
They were #4 in the nation in offensive efficiency and #12 in defensive efficiency. They were also #2 in three-point shooting.
In his 19 seasons in West Lafayette, Matt Painter has been to the tournament 15 out of 18 times with a Championship Game appearance, an Elite Eight, and 5 Sweet Sixteens. He does a great job of finding under-appreciated talent and coaching them.
Purdue was not only fortunate to have the two-time player of the year in Zach Edey. They also had the same starting lineup in all 39 games. Not a single starter missed a game. Also, their top two subs never missed a game. I wonder how many teams can say their top 7 players in the rotation played every game last season.
As you went down the depth chart, the injury situation it is almost as good. Players 8 and 9 in the rotation played in 37 and 36 games our of 39.
GRADUATING
The Boilers lose one senior to graduation, but he was a full-time starter and their third-leading scorer.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
Purdue "only" loses two players, but that does include the two-time national player of the year. Edey led the nation in scoring and total rebounds. He was second in rebounds per game. He was the second-best shot blocker in the Big Ten. He is a BIG loss in every way.
TRANSFERRING OUT
Mason Gillis was Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year. He played more minutes than starter Trey Kaufman-Renn. He was their leading 3-point shooter, if you don't count Zach Edey who only took two all seasson, making one of them. However, the Boilers still return a lot of three-point shooting.
RETURNING
The Boilermakes return a lot of production, including a lot of assists. Their big loss is rim protection. Zach Edey was #23 in the nation in blocks per game.
Purdue brings back three starters and three rotation players. They also bring back a ton of three-point shooting including four guys show shot over 40%. However, Edey got so much attention that it gave them a lot of wide-open three-pointers. They may not be as accurate from the arc without the big guy.
Braden Smith was first-team All-Big Ten, and he deserved it. He was second only to Tyler Kolek of Marquette in assista per game, and he led the nation in total assists. He is also one of the best rebounding guards in the nation. If that's not enough, he was #30 in A/TO ratio, and he led the team in steals.
Clearly, Matt Painter saw something that other coaches and the recruiting services missed when he offered a scholarship to Smith. Smith's other offers were Appalachian State, Montana, and Toledo. Smith went to school an hour away from the Purdue campus. That have helped Painter find him.
Fletcher Loyer was a very solid second guard for Purdue.
Coach Painter has said he expects Trey Kaufman-Renn to be a star next season.
Will Berg is another of those giant centers Matt Painter is so fond of. He is 7-2, 255. He may not have impressive numbers as a freshman, but as a freshman Edey only started 2 games, scored 9 points, and had 4.4 rebounds. Berg's freshman numbers aren't as good, but he played behind the player of the year. Berg played 55 minures last season and didn't block a shot.
Berg was unranked, but he came from Sweden, so the ranking services may not have been aware of him. Or he may just be big and not that good.
RECRUITS
(#18 class, #3 in B1G)
This may not look like an impressive recruiting class, but it is pretty typical for Matt Painter. He hasn't had a 5-star recruit since Caleb Swanigan in 2015. I don't think he has ever had the highest-rated class in the Big Ten. Yet he continues to have winning teams, get to the NCAA tournament, and win games there. Expect several of these players to turn out quite a bit better than their rankings suggest.
Daniel Jacobsen is another very tall center. It sounds like Coach Painter wants to repeat the Zach Edey story.
Their highest-ranked recruit had been committed to Purdue for over a year, but then chose to sign with BYU instead.
TRANSFERRING IN
Purdue is the only team in the Big Ten with no incoming transfer.
CONCLUSION
Coach Painter likes to build his team out of freshmen who stay with the program. The only player on last year's roster who didn't start as a freshman for Purdue was Lance Jones.
Next season he will start with a solid core of three starters and three rotation players who played a lot. However, after that he will have to integrate six freshmen. Braden Smith is a star, but the Boilermakers are unlikely to be nearly as good as last season. In addition, There is little chance they will have another injury-free season.
I don't think it is wise to underestimate a Matt Painter team. They will be one of the best teams in the Big Ten next season. However, I expect them to take a step back.
Then again, maybe I am selling Matt Painter short. In his 19 years he has had at least a share of the Big Ten title 5 times, finished second 4 times, and finished third 3 times. He has finished in the top four of the league, 14 of 19 years. He is doing something right.
Unlike some coaches, there is no single factor behind his success. Here is some data. I can't figure out the pattern, other than the fact that he usually finishes in the top 4 in the league.
Matt Painter is a great coach, who has had great success with under-rated freshmen who develop in his system. However, it took a two-time national player of the year and an injury-free season to break through. There's no Edey and there will be injuries. It's a no-brainer to pick Purdue in the top 4 in the league. I think it's a bit much to pick them to win the Big Ten like some "experts" do. I think Purdue will finish around 4th in the league.
Torvick projects the Boilermakers as the #11 team in the country and #2 in the B1G, with a record of 21-10 and 13-7 in conference.
247 picks them to finiish 3rd.
Lunardi predicts a #4 seed.
Vrooman picks Purdue 2nd. He writes:
2. Purdue Boilermakers
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +21.92 (+30.62 last year)
Coaching Info: Matt Painter +9.17 (5th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’4 G Fletcher Loyer (10.3 pts, 44.4% 3pt), 6’9 F Trey Kaufmann (6.4 pts, 4.0 reb), 6’0 G Braden Smith (12.0 pts, 43.1% 3pt), 6’10 F Caleb Furst (2.2 pts, 2.4 reb), 6’5 G Myles Colvin (3.3 pts, 41.4% 3pt)
Purdue came within 40 minutes of ending the Big Ten’s title drought but just couldn’t compete with Connecticut in the championship game. Then this offseason they lost two-time national player of the year Zach Edey. So how did Matt Painter respond? Did he go out and replace Edey with an All-American type center?
Nope. Purdue added 0 (zero) transfers through the portal. They brought in the 40th ranked recruit so that’s something at least. But Purdue also lost #3 scorer Lance Jones to graduation while #5 scorer Mason Gillis transferred to Duke. It’s not often you see a team lose 3 of their top-5 scorers these days and just choose not to bring in a single transfer.
Matt Painter is one of the best coaches in the country. He has finished in the top-25 at KenPom for 9 straight seasons. Clearly, he thinks the roster is good enough with internal development to get to that level again this season. Painter knows what it takes to win so just by having him on the sideline this is a tournament team. But even so, it would be a shock at this point for this team to win yet another Big Ten title almost entirely on the backs of a trio of really good shooting guards who won’t have Edey in the middle to draw the attention of defenses anymore. This looks like a rebuilding year which still means probably at worst a #8 seed because Matt Painter is fantastic.
6/6 Kanon Catchings decommits from the Boilermakers
====================
Here's another Purdue season preview
The Purdue Boilermakers finished first in the Big Ten, got a #1 Seed in the NCAA tournament, and went to the Championship game, before losing to UConn. They are coached by Matt Painter who has finally shed the title of "best coach who has never made the Final Four"
They were #4 in the nation in offensive efficiency and #12 in defensive efficiency. They were also #2 in three-point shooting.
In his 19 seasons in West Lafayette, Matt Painter has been to the tournament 15 out of 18 times with a Championship Game appearance, an Elite Eight, and 5 Sweet Sixteens. He does a great job of finding under-appreciated talent and coaching them.
Purdue was not only fortunate to have the two-time player of the year in Zach Edey. They also had the same starting lineup in all 39 games. Not a single starter missed a game. Also, their top two subs never missed a game. I wonder how many teams can say their top 7 players in the rotation played every game last season.
As you went down the depth chart, the injury situation it is almost as good. Players 8 and 9 in the rotation played in 37 and 36 games our of 39.
GRADUATING
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes |
| Lance Jones | 39 | 39 | 29 | 12 | 2.7 | 1.9 | Southern Illinois transfer |
| . |
The Boilers lose one senior to graduation, but he was a full-time starter and their third-leading scorer.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Can Return? |
| Zach Edey | 39 | 39 | 32 | 25 | 12.2 | 2.0 | No |
Purdue "only" loses two players, but that does include the two-time national player of the year. Edey led the nation in scoring and total rebounds. He was second in rebounds per game. He was the second-best shot blocker in the Big Ten. He is a BIG loss in every way.
TRANSFERRING OUT
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes | Destination |
| Mason Gillis | 39 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | Duke | |
| Ethan Morton | 37 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | Colorado State | |
| . | ||||||||
Mason Gillis was Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year. He played more minutes than starter Trey Kaufman-Renn. He was their leading 3-point shooter, if you don't count Zach Edey who only took two all seasson, making one of them. However, the Boilers still return a lot of three-point shooting.
RETURNING
| STAT | RETURNING |
| Starts | 60% |
| Minutes | 54% |
| Points | 46% |
| 3-Pointers Made | 54% |
| Rebounds | 44% |
| Assists | 63% |
| Steals | 59% |
| Blocks | 28% |
The Boilermakes return a lot of production, including a lot of assists. Their big loss is rim protection. Zach Edey was #23 in the nation in blocks per game.
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG% | 3-Pt% | A/TO | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Braden Smith | 39 | 39 | 34 | 12 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 44% | 43% | 2.8 | Jr | 3 | 216 |
| Fletcher Loyer | 39 | 39 | 28 | 10 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 42% | 44% | 1.7 | Jr | 4 | 122 |
| Trey Kaufman-Renn | 39 | 39 | 17 | 6 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 51% | 33% | 1.2 | Sr | 4 | 50 |
| Myles Colvin | 31 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 44% | 41% | 0.8 | So | 4 | 63 |
| Camden Heide | 39 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 58% | 45% | 1.4 | Jr | 3 | 141 |
| Caleb Furst | 36 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 44% | 27% | 1.2 | Sr | 4 | 67 |
| Brian Waddell | 14 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 43% | 17% | Jr | Unranked | ||
| William Berg | 14 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 75% | So | Unranked | |||
| . |
Purdue brings back three starters and three rotation players. They also bring back a ton of three-point shooting including four guys show shot over 40%. However, Edey got so much attention that it gave them a lot of wide-open three-pointers. They may not be as accurate from the arc without the big guy.
Braden Smith was first-team All-Big Ten, and he deserved it. He was second only to Tyler Kolek of Marquette in assista per game, and he led the nation in total assists. He is also one of the best rebounding guards in the nation. If that's not enough, he was #30 in A/TO ratio, and he led the team in steals.
Clearly, Matt Painter saw something that other coaches and the recruiting services missed when he offered a scholarship to Smith. Smith's other offers were Appalachian State, Montana, and Toledo. Smith went to school an hour away from the Purdue campus. That have helped Painter find him.
Fletcher Loyer was a very solid second guard for Purdue.
Coach Painter has said he expects Trey Kaufman-Renn to be a star next season.
Will Berg is another of those giant centers Matt Painter is so fond of. He is 7-2, 255. He may not have impressive numbers as a freshman, but as a freshman Edey only started 2 games, scored 9 points, and had 4.4 rebounds. Berg's freshman numbers aren't as good, but he played behind the player of the year. Berg played 55 minures last season and didn't block a shot.
Berg was unranked, but he came from Sweden, so the ranking services may not have been aware of him. Or he may just be big and not that good.
RECRUITS
(#18 class, #3 in B1G)
| Player | Size | Position | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Offers |
| Gicarri Harris | 6-4 180 | CG | 4 | 90 | Georgia Tech, LSU, Stanford |
| Raleigh Burgess | 6-10 205 | C | 3 | 137 | Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State |
| Daniel Jacobsen | 7-3 235 | C | 3 | 193 | Minnesota, Wisconsin, Clemson |
| CJ Cox | 6-2 175 | CG | 3 | 236 | Brown, Dartmouth, Boston U |
| Jack Benter | 6-4 180 | SG | 3 | Unranked | Indian St, Liberty |
This may not look like an impressive recruiting class, but it is pretty typical for Matt Painter. He hasn't had a 5-star recruit since Caleb Swanigan in 2015. I don't think he has ever had the highest-rated class in the Big Ten. Yet he continues to have winning teams, get to the NCAA tournament, and win games there. Expect several of these players to turn out quite a bit better than their rankings suggest.
Daniel Jacobsen is another very tall center. It sounds like Coach Painter wants to repeat the Zach Edey story.
Their highest-ranked recruit had been committed to Purdue for over a year, but then chose to sign with BYU instead.
TRANSFERRING IN
| Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG % | 3-Pt % | A/TO | From | Class | ||||
| . | |||||||||||||||
| . |
Purdue is the only team in the Big Ten with no incoming transfer.
CONCLUSION
Coach Painter likes to build his team out of freshmen who stay with the program. The only player on last year's roster who didn't start as a freshman for Purdue was Lance Jones.
Next season he will start with a solid core of three starters and three rotation players who played a lot. However, after that he will have to integrate six freshmen. Braden Smith is a star, but the Boilermakers are unlikely to be nearly as good as last season. In addition, There is little chance they will have another injury-free season.
I don't think it is wise to underestimate a Matt Painter team. They will be one of the best teams in the Big Ten next season. However, I expect them to take a step back.
Then again, maybe I am selling Matt Painter short. In his 19 years he has had at least a share of the Big Ten title 5 times, finished second 4 times, and finished third 3 times. He has finished in the top four of the league, 14 of 19 years. He is doing something right.
Unlike some coaches, there is no single factor behind his success. Here is some data. I can't figure out the pattern, other than the fact that he usually finishes in the top 4 in the league.
| Year | B1G Finish | Offense Rank | Defense Rank | Three Point Shooting Rank | Offensive Rebound Rank |
| 2024 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 7 |
| 2023 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 275 | 3 |
| 2022 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 5 | 13 |
| 2021 | 4 | 26 | 34 | 181 | 35 |
| 2020 | T-10 | 50 | 11 | 186 | 16 |
| 2019 | T-1 | 4 | 34 | 44 | 20 |
| 2018 | T-2 | 2 | 31 | 2 | 202 |
| 2017 | 1 | 24 | 23 | 7 | 114 |
| 2016 | T-3 | 19 | 11 | 73 | 31 |
| 2015 | T-3 | 61 | 54 | 238 | 22 |
| 2014 | 12 | 119 | 90 | 239 | 90 |
Matt Painter is a great coach, who has had great success with under-rated freshmen who develop in his system. However, it took a two-time national player of the year and an injury-free season to break through. There's no Edey and there will be injuries. It's a no-brainer to pick Purdue in the top 4 in the league. I think it's a bit much to pick them to win the Big Ten like some "experts" do. I think Purdue will finish around 4th in the league.
Torvick projects the Boilermakers as the #11 team in the country and #2 in the B1G, with a record of 21-10 and 13-7 in conference.
247 picks them to finiish 3rd.
Lunardi predicts a #4 seed.
Vrooman picks Purdue 2nd. He writes:
2. Purdue Boilermakers
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +21.92 (+30.62 last year)
Coaching Info: Matt Painter +9.17 (5th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’4 G Fletcher Loyer (10.3 pts, 44.4% 3pt), 6’9 F Trey Kaufmann (6.4 pts, 4.0 reb), 6’0 G Braden Smith (12.0 pts, 43.1% 3pt), 6’10 F Caleb Furst (2.2 pts, 2.4 reb), 6’5 G Myles Colvin (3.3 pts, 41.4% 3pt)
Purdue came within 40 minutes of ending the Big Ten’s title drought but just couldn’t compete with Connecticut in the championship game. Then this offseason they lost two-time national player of the year Zach Edey. So how did Matt Painter respond? Did he go out and replace Edey with an All-American type center?
Nope. Purdue added 0 (zero) transfers through the portal. They brought in the 40th ranked recruit so that’s something at least. But Purdue also lost #3 scorer Lance Jones to graduation while #5 scorer Mason Gillis transferred to Duke. It’s not often you see a team lose 3 of their top-5 scorers these days and just choose not to bring in a single transfer.
Matt Painter is one of the best coaches in the country. He has finished in the top-25 at KenPom for 9 straight seasons. Clearly, he thinks the roster is good enough with internal development to get to that level again this season. Painter knows what it takes to win so just by having him on the sideline this is a tournament team. But even so, it would be a shock at this point for this team to win yet another Big Ten title almost entirely on the backs of a trio of really good shooting guards who won’t have Edey in the middle to draw the attention of defenses anymore. This looks like a rebuilding year which still means probably at worst a #8 seed because Matt Painter is fantastic.