Post by mhbruin on Apr 2, 2024 13:22:19 GMT -8
CHANGES
Niccolo Moretti going to Florida Atlantic
Signed freshman Kasparas Jakucionis
Coleman Hawkins withdraws from the draft, but will transfer to Kansas State
7/10 Freshman Will Riley reclassifies to 2024.
====================
The Illinois Fighting Illini finished in 2nd place in the B1G and won the B1G tournament. They got a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament and went to the Elite Eight, before losing to UConn, in a game where they gave up a 30-0 run.
They are coached by Brad (don't call him Bradley) Underwood. He has had success everywhere he has gone. He took Stephen F Austin to the tournament in all three of his seasons there. He took Oklahoma State to the tournament in his only season there. He has been in Champaign for seven seasons, and has had the Illini in the tournament the last four, with 5 wins.
Last season Illinois was the #4 offense in the country, but only the #80 defense according to KenPom.
GRADUATING
Terrance Shannon and Marcus Domask were first-team All-Big Ten. Shannon was the #3 scorer in the nation. In most years, he would have been Big Ten Player of the Year. However, in most years he wouldn't have been competing with Zach Edey.
Shannon was also accused of rape and will stand trial starting on June 10th. The NBA Draft is scheduled for June 26-27.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
On the last possible day, Hawkins withdrew from the draft, but will transfer instead of returning to the Illini.
TRANSFERRING OUT
The Illini have lost three all-conference players. They are losing 4 starters and 90% of their scoring.
Coleman Hawkins was third-team All-Big-Ten. He led tihe team in rebounds, blocks, and steals, and he was their third-leading scorer.
For some reason Dainja only played 11 minutes per game. If he changed his name to Dain Danger, he could be the star of a 1950's detective movie.
Luke Goode was primarily a three-point specialist. He's taking his game 140 miles east to Bloomington.
Sencire Harris was a redshirt last season after a modest freshman year. He was a 4-star out of high school.
RETURNING
Illinois doesn't reurn much production. In the Big Ten, only Washington and USC return less production, and they both lost their head coaches.
Illinois loses their top 4 scorers, 4 of their top 5 rebounders, their top 3 in assists, and their top 2 in blocks.
The Illini only return one starter and a sub who didn't play very much.
Ty Rodgers started every game, but only averaged 6.2 points. In two seasons, Ty Rodgers has attempted one three-pointer. He missed it.
So their best returning three-point shooter makes 22% of them.
Moretti was a late addition to the transfer portal
RECRUITS
(#15 class, #2 in B1G)
It looks like Illinois went out of their way to recruit guys with hard names to pronounce, but somehow got a guy named "Johnson" as wel.
Illinois's recruiting class moved up dramatically when 2025 recruit Will Riley committed to the Ilinini and reclassified to 2024. They went from the 11th-best team in the Big Ten to the 2nd-best and from #50 nationally to #15.
Morez Johnson was named "Mr. Basketball" in Illinois. He was one of the stars on Team USA, who won the FIBA’s U-18 Men’s AmeriCup by going a perfect 6-0.
Jase Butler committed to the Illini, reopened his recruitment and committed to Washington.
According to ESPN: "Top international basketball prospect Kasparas Jakucionis, a potential first-round pick in the 2025 NBA draft, has committed to Illinois, a source told ESPN on Tuesday. Jakucionis was one of the youngest players ever to play for European powerhouse Barcelona when he made his ACB debut at 16, and he recently made his Euroleague debut in January. He led the prestigious Adidas Next Generation tournament in assists this season at 9.0 per game, being named MVP of the ANGT Belgrade."
If Jakucionis is a one-and-done, he would be the first international player to achieve that without attending at least a year of high school in the US. Europrospects ranks him the #9 player in his age group, That's not the ranking of a first-round draft choice in 2025.
TRANSFERRING IN
In 2023 Boswell was Pac-12 Freshman of the Year. He should step right into the starting lineup.
Carey Booth didn't exactly have a great freshman year. He was a decent rebounder, but you wouldn't expect a 6-10 guy to only shoot 39% from the field.
Tre White played a year for USC where he started 26 games, and then transferred to Louisville. He was the 4th-leading scorer on a terrible team.
Jake Davis wasn't that impressive at Mercer. I wouldn't expect much at Illinois.
Ben Humrichous had a very good freshman season for the 10th-place team in the Missouri Valley Conference. He also has one of the best names in college basketball.
They did bring in some good three-point shooters, which is good, because they didn't return any.
This is a solid transfer class. HOWEVER, after losing so much, the Illni needed more than a solid class.
===========================
An Illini writer wrote this: (My comments are in bold.)
"Illinois lost practically their whole roster to graduation from an Elite Eight team, but the program did well to recruit to the identity it formed this past year with its portal additions. Champaign native Kylan Boswell is the big grab after two solid seasons at Arizona as a 3-and-D style lead guard.
"Carey Booth — son of former NBA player Calvin Booth — is a 6’10 big man who can knock down a three-pointer (at a 30% clip) and keep the team’s 5-out style alive.
"Humrichous is a 6’9 knockdown shooter and versatile offensive weapon who could follow in Marcus Domask’s shoes by going from a low major star to Big Ten standout. (It is more likely he won't be first-team All-Big Ten.)
"White is a 6’7 forward with good scoring instincts (Another 30% three-point shooter), and Davis is a 6’6 guard who can shoot. Illinois lost a ton of talent, but this should still be a tournament team after rebounding nicely in the portal."
CONCLUSION
I don't think they will be popping any corks in Champaign.
Illinois lost more production than any other Big Ten team that retained their coach. They return one starter from last season who averaged 6 points per game, but was a good rebounder. They bring in Kylan Boswell, a sure-fire starter from Arizona. 5-star freshman Will Riley might be ready to start from Day One. The rest of the guys have potential, but Illinois will need for a bunch of them to realize that potential.
They need at least 5 players to improve a lot to have a solid 7-man rotation. There are 5 players who are candidates to take on those 5 roles. In other words, Illinois needs everything to break almost perfectly to have a solid roster. And that assumes they have no significant injuries.
Also, they are very young, with no seniors and three juniors. They return the fewest years of college experience of any team in the Big Ten. Depending on a bunch of young guys make work if they are mostly 5-star players, but this is not Durham.
Then again maybe the unranked Euros will prove to be really good. It didn't work for UCLA, but you never know.
Brad Underwood is a good coach, who has a history of getting his teams into the NCAA tournament. He will have talent with a five-star and six 4-star players, but he is losing three all-conference players. Kylan Boswell may have an All-Big-Ten year. It seems like a lot to expect anyone else on this roster to be that good.
This looks like a team that will struggle to make the NCAA tournament.
Torvick projects them as the #17 team in the country and #2 in the B1G. I don't think they will be that good.
247 picks the Illini to finish 6th in the Big Ten.
Lunardi predicts they get into the tournament with a #10 seed.
Vrooman picks Illinois to finish 16th. He writes;
16. Illinois Fighting Illini
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +13.24 (+24.53 last year)
Coaching Info: Brad Underwood +4.32 (17th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’2 G Kylan Boswell (Arizona- 9.6 pts, 3.6 ast), 6’7 F Tre White (Louisville- 12.3 pts, 5.9 reb), 6’6 G Ty Rodgers (6.2 pts, 5.3 reb), 6’10 F Carey Booth (Notre Dame- 6.4 pts, 4.3 reb), 6’9 F Ben Humrichous (Evansville- 14.7 pts, 41.4% 3pt)
If this is actually where Illinois finishes next season then it would have to be considered a massive disappointment. The Illini have won at least 11 conference games in each of the past 5 seasons and have been a top-4 NCAA seed in 3 of those years. Last season was the peak under Brad Underwood in terms of postseason performance as Illinois made it all the way to the Elite Eight.
But gone are TJ Shannon, Marcus Domask, Coleman Hawkins*, Quincy Guerrier, Dain Dainja, and Luke Goode. That’s 5 of Illinois’ 6 highest scorers from last year’s team all departing. Philosophical differences saw one of Illinois’ top assistants leave as Underwood is going all in on the portal over development of freshmen. That helped the Huskies who wound up with former Illinois commit Jase Butler.
If you squint your eyes you can see how it might work without further additions. Kylan Boswell seemed like an obvious breakout candidate before last year at Arizona and could easily turn into a star now that he’s back home and “the guy”. Tre White was a great role player at USC and put up good numbers for Louisville last year. A couple of their power forwards can step out and knock down a 3-point shot. But there’s no one on the roster who has averaged more than 9 ppg for a tournament team before so even if Underwood works his magic this still looks like the worst team he has had in a while.
Niccolo Moretti going to Florida Atlantic
Signed freshman Kasparas Jakucionis
Coleman Hawkins withdraws from the draft, but will transfer to Kansas State
7/10 Freshman Will Riley reclassifies to 2024.
====================
The Illinois Fighting Illini finished in 2nd place in the B1G and won the B1G tournament. They got a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament and went to the Elite Eight, before losing to UConn, in a game where they gave up a 30-0 run.
They are coached by Brad (don't call him Bradley) Underwood. He has had success everywhere he has gone. He took Stephen F Austin to the tournament in all three of his seasons there. He took Oklahoma State to the tournament in his only season there. He has been in Champaign for seven seasons, and has had the Illini in the tournament the last four, with 5 wins.
Last season Illinois was the #4 offense in the country, but only the #80 defense according to KenPom.
GRADUATING
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | 32 | 31 | 34 | 23 | 4.0 | 2.3 | Led in scoring |
| Marcus Domask | 38 | 38 | 35 | 16 | 5.0 | 3.9 | Led in assists |
| Quincy Guerrier | 38 | 38 | 24 | 10 | 6.1 | 0.3 | Led in rebounds |
| Justin Harmon | 38 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | |
Terrance Shannon and Marcus Domask were first-team All-Big Ten. Shannon was the #3 scorer in the nation. In most years, he would have been Big Ten Player of the Year. However, in most years he wouldn't have been competing with Zach Edey.
Shannon was also accused of rape and will stand trial starting on June 10th. The NBA Draft is scheduled for June 26-27.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Can Return? |
On the last possible day, Hawkins withdrew from the draft, but will transfer instead of returning to the Illini.
TRANSFERRING OUT
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes | Destination |
| Dain Dainja | 38 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 3.6 | 0.2 | Memphis | |
| Luke Goode | 38 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 3.6 | 0.6 | Indiana | |
| Amani Hansberry | 19 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 2.1 | 0.3 | West Virginia | |
| Sencire Harris | 0 | West Virginia | ||||||
| Niccolo Moretti | 18 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | Florida Atlantic | |
| Coleman Hawkins | 35 | 35 | 32 | 12 | 6.1 | 2.7 | Kansas State |
The Illini have lost three all-conference players. They are losing 4 starters and 90% of their scoring.
Coleman Hawkins was third-team All-Big-Ten. He led tihe team in rebounds, blocks, and steals, and he was their third-leading scorer.
For some reason Dainja only played 11 minutes per game. If he changed his name to Dain Danger, he could be the star of a 1950's detective movie.
Luke Goode was primarily a three-point specialist. He's taking his game 140 miles east to Bloomington.
Sencire Harris was a redshirt last season after a modest freshman year. He was a 4-star out of high school.
RETURNING
Illinois doesn't reurn much production. In the Big Ten, only Washington and USC return less production, and they both lost their head coaches.
| STAT | RETURNING |
| Starts | 20% |
| Minutes | 14% |
| Points | 3% |
| 3-Pointers Made | 15% |
| Rebounds | 17% |
| Assists | 11% |
| Steals | 12% |
| Blocks | 9% |
Illinois loses their top 4 scorers, 4 of their top 5 rebounders, their top 3 in assists, and their top 2 in blocks.
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG% | 3Pt% | A/TO | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Ty Rodgers F | 6-6 200 | 38 | 38 | 23 | 6 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 53% | 1.6 | Jr | 4 | 59 | |
| Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn G | 6-1 165 | 28 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 35% | 22% | 1.0 | So | 4 | 134 |
| . | |||||||||||||
| . |
The Illini only return one starter and a sub who didn't play very much.
Ty Rodgers started every game, but only averaged 6.2 points. In two seasons, Ty Rodgers has attempted one three-pointer. He missed it.
So their best returning three-point shooter makes 22% of them.
Moretti was a late addition to the transfer portal
RECRUITS
(#15 class, #2 in B1G)
It looks like Illinois went out of their way to recruit guys with hard names to pronounce, but somehow got a guy named "Johnson" as wel.
| Player | Size | Position | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Offers |
| Morez Johnson | 6-9 235 | PF | 4 | 29 | Florida, Iowa, Nebraska |
| Jason Jakstys | 6-10 205 | PF | 3 | 119 | Drake, Illinois St, Indiana St |
| Tomislav Ivisic | 7-0 230 | C | Unranked | - no other offers - | |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | 6-5 200 | SG | Unranked | - no other offers - | |
| Will Riley | 6-8 180 | SF | 5 | 19 | Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama, Arizona |
Illinois's recruiting class moved up dramatically when 2025 recruit Will Riley committed to the Ilinini and reclassified to 2024. They went from the 11th-best team in the Big Ten to the 2nd-best and from #50 nationally to #15.
Morez Johnson was named "Mr. Basketball" in Illinois. He was one of the stars on Team USA, who won the FIBA’s U-18 Men’s AmeriCup by going a perfect 6-0.
Jase Butler committed to the Illini, reopened his recruitment and committed to Washington.
According to ESPN: "Top international basketball prospect Kasparas Jakucionis, a potential first-round pick in the 2025 NBA draft, has committed to Illinois, a source told ESPN on Tuesday. Jakucionis was one of the youngest players ever to play for European powerhouse Barcelona when he made his ACB debut at 16, and he recently made his Euroleague debut in January. He led the prestigious Adidas Next Generation tournament in assists this season at 9.0 per game, being named MVP of the ANGT Belgrade."
If Jakucionis is a one-and-done, he would be the first international player to achieve that without attending at least a year of high school in the US. Europrospects ranks him the #9 player in his age group, That's not the ranking of a first-round draft choice in 2025.
TRANSFERRING IN
| SOURCE | NATIONAL CLASS RANK | BIG TEN CLASS RANK |
| 247 | 18 | 7 |
| Evan Miya | 22 | 6 |
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG % | 3-Pt % | A/TO | From | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Transfer Rank | Notes |
| Kylan Boswell | 6-2 200 | 36 | 35 | 27 | 10 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 40% | 38% | 2.1 | Arizona | Jr | 4 | 29 | 36 | |
| Carey Booth | 6-10 203 | 33 | 19 | 20 | 6 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 39% | 30% | 0.6 | Notre Dame | So | 4 | 59 | 91 | |
| Tre White | 6-7 205 | 29 | 26 | 31 | 12 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 46% | 30% | 0.7 | Louisville | Jr | 4 | 50 | 152 | |
| Jake Davis | 6-6 220 | 33 | 25 | 29 | 9 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 42% | 39% | 0.8 | Mercer | So | Unranked | 378 | ||
| Ben Humrichous | 6-8 220 | 24 | 24 | 30 | 15 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 48% | 41% | 1.6 | Evansville | So | Unranked | 105 | ||
| . |
In 2023 Boswell was Pac-12 Freshman of the Year. He should step right into the starting lineup.
Carey Booth didn't exactly have a great freshman year. He was a decent rebounder, but you wouldn't expect a 6-10 guy to only shoot 39% from the field.
Tre White played a year for USC where he started 26 games, and then transferred to Louisville. He was the 4th-leading scorer on a terrible team.
Jake Davis wasn't that impressive at Mercer. I wouldn't expect much at Illinois.
Ben Humrichous had a very good freshman season for the 10th-place team in the Missouri Valley Conference. He also has one of the best names in college basketball.
They did bring in some good three-point shooters, which is good, because they didn't return any.
This is a solid transfer class. HOWEVER, after losing so much, the Illni needed more than a solid class.
===========================
An Illini writer wrote this: (My comments are in bold.)
"Illinois lost practically their whole roster to graduation from an Elite Eight team, but the program did well to recruit to the identity it formed this past year with its portal additions. Champaign native Kylan Boswell is the big grab after two solid seasons at Arizona as a 3-and-D style lead guard.
"Carey Booth — son of former NBA player Calvin Booth — is a 6’10 big man who can knock down a three-pointer (at a 30% clip) and keep the team’s 5-out style alive.
"Humrichous is a 6’9 knockdown shooter and versatile offensive weapon who could follow in Marcus Domask’s shoes by going from a low major star to Big Ten standout. (It is more likely he won't be first-team All-Big Ten.)
"White is a 6’7 forward with good scoring instincts (Another 30% three-point shooter), and Davis is a 6’6 guard who can shoot. Illinois lost a ton of talent, but this should still be a tournament team after rebounding nicely in the portal."
CONCLUSION
I don't think they will be popping any corks in Champaign.
Illinois lost more production than any other Big Ten team that retained their coach. They return one starter from last season who averaged 6 points per game, but was a good rebounder. They bring in Kylan Boswell, a sure-fire starter from Arizona. 5-star freshman Will Riley might be ready to start from Day One. The rest of the guys have potential, but Illinois will need for a bunch of them to realize that potential.
They need at least 5 players to improve a lot to have a solid 7-man rotation. There are 5 players who are candidates to take on those 5 roles. In other words, Illinois needs everything to break almost perfectly to have a solid roster. And that assumes they have no significant injuries.
Also, they are very young, with no seniors and three juniors. They return the fewest years of college experience of any team in the Big Ten. Depending on a bunch of young guys make work if they are mostly 5-star players, but this is not Durham.
Then again maybe the unranked Euros will prove to be really good. It didn't work for UCLA, but you never know.
Brad Underwood is a good coach, who has a history of getting his teams into the NCAA tournament. He will have talent with a five-star and six 4-star players, but he is losing three all-conference players. Kylan Boswell may have an All-Big-Ten year. It seems like a lot to expect anyone else on this roster to be that good.
This looks like a team that will struggle to make the NCAA tournament.
Torvick projects them as the #17 team in the country and #2 in the B1G. I don't think they will be that good.
247 picks the Illini to finish 6th in the Big Ten.
Lunardi predicts they get into the tournament with a #10 seed.
Vrooman picks Illinois to finish 16th. He writes;
16. Illinois Fighting Illini
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +13.24 (+24.53 last year)
Coaching Info: Brad Underwood +4.32 (17th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’2 G Kylan Boswell (Arizona- 9.6 pts, 3.6 ast), 6’7 F Tre White (Louisville- 12.3 pts, 5.9 reb), 6’6 G Ty Rodgers (6.2 pts, 5.3 reb), 6’10 F Carey Booth (Notre Dame- 6.4 pts, 4.3 reb), 6’9 F Ben Humrichous (Evansville- 14.7 pts, 41.4% 3pt)
If this is actually where Illinois finishes next season then it would have to be considered a massive disappointment. The Illini have won at least 11 conference games in each of the past 5 seasons and have been a top-4 NCAA seed in 3 of those years. Last season was the peak under Brad Underwood in terms of postseason performance as Illinois made it all the way to the Elite Eight.
But gone are TJ Shannon, Marcus Domask, Coleman Hawkins*, Quincy Guerrier, Dain Dainja, and Luke Goode. That’s 5 of Illinois’ 6 highest scorers from last year’s team all departing. Philosophical differences saw one of Illinois’ top assistants leave as Underwood is going all in on the portal over development of freshmen. That helped the Huskies who wound up with former Illinois commit Jase Butler.
If you squint your eyes you can see how it might work without further additions. Kylan Boswell seemed like an obvious breakout candidate before last year at Arizona and could easily turn into a star now that he’s back home and “the guy”. Tre White was a great role player at USC and put up good numbers for Louisville last year. A couple of their power forwards can step out and knock down a 3-point shot. But there’s no one on the roster who has averaged more than 9 ppg for a tournament team before so even if Underwood works his magic this still looks like the worst team he has had in a while.