Post by mhbruin on Mar 30, 2024 21:00:25 GMT -8
CHANGES
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The 5th-place Wisconsin Badgers are coached by Greg Gard. He has been in Madison for 9 seasons, where he has finished tied for first in the Big Ten twice, and has three other top 4 finishes. He has been to 6 of the 8 NCAA tournaments. The Badgers went to the Sweet 16 in his first two seasons, but have only won two tournament games since.
The Badgers finished #17 at KenPom and lost to #12 seed James Madison in the opening round of the tNCAA ournament. After the season there was speculation that Coach Gard might be fired, but he is back for season #10.
Wisconsin fans have high expectations. Gard's 65% win percentage isn't as good as his predecessor Bo Ryan's. Ryan won 74% of his games and led them to two Final Fours. But to find another coach with a better record, you have to go back to Walter Meanwell who won 91% of his game from 1911 to 1917. Gard is a good coach, even if he is no Bo Ryan.
Last season Gard was blessed with almost prefect roster stablity. Four of their five starters started every game. The lone exception started 35 out of 36 games. All five starters combined missed exactly one game.
The Badgers had the #17 offense in the country and the #46 defense. Their three-point defense was terrible at #339.
GRADUATING
Wisconsin only had one senior on their roster last season, but he was a full-time starter.
Tyler Wahl was their third-leading scorer and second-leading rebounder. He led the team in blocks, but only with 0.6 blocks per game. They are not generally much of a shot-blocking team.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
Storr withdrew from the drafts but is transferring to Kansas.
TRANSFERRING OUT
A J Storr led the team in scoring. He was the #4 player in the transfer portal.
Chucky Hepburn has started every game in his three seasons in Madison. He wasn't a great shooter, but he had a 3.2 A/TO ratio which was #14 in the country. He was the #103 player in the portal.
I have a hard time understanding why anyone would call himself "Chucky".
Connor Essegian started 19 games as a freshman, but his minutes were dramatically reduced in his sophomore season, so he is moving on to another B1G team.
4-star recruit Gus Yalden got off to a rocky start before the season began when he was cited twice by Madison Police for possession of marijuana and underage drinking.
He missed several days of practice while recovering from an injury suffered in a scooter accident. He was was well down the rotation during preseason practices and eventually chose to redshirt. After creating plenty of buzz on campus for his arrival, Yalden will leave the program without having played a single minute for the Badgers.
Luke Haertle is tranferring to Winona State. I don't think it is named after Winona Judd or Winona Ryder, but stranger things have happened.
RETURNING
The Badgers return 6 seniors from their rotation last season, including 2 starters. However, the other 4 seniors played less than 10 minutes per game.
Overall, Wisconsin's returning production is a bit above average for the Big Ten.
Looking at the returning players, this is not a bunch of highly-ranked recruits. There are no Top 100 players on the returning roster and none are coming in.
Wisconsin doesn't win with athletes. They tend to have big, strong guys who play physical, sound basketball.
The best thing about the returning group is that it includes three guys who shot 40% or more from the arc.
Steven Crowl led the tean in rebounds and he was their second-leading scorer. He scored in double figures in 6 of their last 7 games, but in the other game he was held scoreless by Zach Edey. He's 7 feet tall, but he was not your usual center. He their best three-point shooters among the starters, and he was their second best at assists.
Max Klesmit is the other player who started more than one game last season. He was 4th on the team in scoring.
John Blackwell is the leading sub who is returning. He is their best three-point shooter.
Nolan Winter is the backup center to Crowl.
Kamari McGee started his career at Wisconsin-Green Bay.
Carter Gilmore turned down scholarship offers from Appalachian State, Brown, DePaul, Illinois-Chicago, Indiana State, Missouri State, Southern Illinois and Wisconsin-Milwaukee.to walk-on at Wisconsin.
There's no one returning who looks like a point guard.
RECRUITS
(#63 class, #15 in B1G)
Daniel Freitag will be the highest-rated prospect on the roster. He is expected to play a significant role as either starting or backup PG.
Overall, this isn't a very impressive class.
TRANSFERRING IN
There is a big difference between how 247 and Evan Miya rank this class. I am not sure why.
I am no
John Tonje played 4 years at Colorado State where he was a full-time starter by his senior year. Then he transferred to Missouri where he only played in 8 games due to a foot injury. He he turns the ball over a lot.
Xavier Amos seems to be a good shooter, but like Tonje, he seems to turn the ball over a lot. They are hoping he can fill the role that Tyler Wahl played.
Camren Hunter did not play last season due to a leg injury. His stats are from 2022-23. He started every game in the two seasons he played in the ASUN. With the need for a PG, he may be pressed into service, but a guy with a 1.4 A/TO ratio at Central Arkansas doesn't inspire confidence.
One writer says he expects Amos and Hunter to start for the Badgers (along with Klesmitt, Blackwell, and Crowl), so they must not think too much of some of those returning seniors.
CONCLUSION
This roster is probably the least talented in the B1G. They don't have a single 5-star or and only one 4-star player on the roster. This looks more like a mid-major than a Big Ten roster.
This is hardly unusual for Greg Gard. In the last 8 years his recruiting classes have averaged the 9.5th best class in a league of 14 teams. His teams have finished quite a bit higher than his talent would predict.
Without great recruiting, Greg Gard has taken Wisconsin to 4 of the last 5 NCAA tournaments. He has also tied for first in the Big Ten in two of the last five seasons. He must do a good combination of finding players who fit his system and coaching them.
Perhaps you might think he does it by killing it in the transfer portal, 247 has only been ranking transfer classes since 2022, but Gard hasn't been killing it there either.
Gard's teams play very slowly, and they don't turn the ball over.
Think of him as Mick Cronin, with less talent. Nonetheless, I still have a hard time seeing how he competes in the B1G with this roster. It doesn't help that Gard lost one of the best ball-handling point guards in the country in the transfer portal. If Gard was on a a coaching hot seat after last season, I think the temperature will be rising.
Torvick projects Wisconsin as the #42 team in the country and #10 in the B1G with a 17-14 record (10-10 in conference).
247 picks the Badgers 13th in the Big 10.
Lunardi doesn't project them making the tournament, or even on the bubble.
Vrooman also picks them 13th. He writes:
13. Wisconsin Badgers
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +14.64 (+20.06 last year)
Coaching Info: Greg Gard +8.20 (7th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 7’0 C Steven Crowl (11.2 pts, 7.3 reb), 6’4 G Max Klesmit (9.9 pts, 39.8% 3pt), 6’4 G John Blackwell (8.0 pts, 45.5% 3pt), 6’3 G Camren Hunter (Central Arkansas- 16.9 pts, 5.0 reb), 6’9 F Markus Ilver (1.1 pts, 1.3 reb)
Greg Gard has consistently been one of the most overachieving coaches at the high major level. In 9 seasons at Wisconsin he has has only missed 2 NCAA tournaments and the Badgers have had five top-25 KenPom finishes during that span including last year. Wisconsin fans though have gotten a little tired of the lack of postseason success as they haven’t been to a Sweet 16 since 2017 despite being a consistently good team that always takes care of the ball; but also always plays at a glacially slow pace.
This year Wisconsin will have to replace their leading scorer AJ Storr (16.8 ppg) who transferred to Kansas as well as their leading passer Chucky Hepburn (9.2 pts, 3.9 ast) who transferred to Louisville. That’s not great but the cupboard isn’t bare. Wisconsin returns three major contributors who all shot at least 40% from 3-point range last season so the spacing has a chance to be elite. Camren Hunter was an elite low major do-everything guard, and he’ll need to make a seamless transition if Wisconsin to finish in the top half of the B1G this year.
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The 5th-place Wisconsin Badgers are coached by Greg Gard. He has been in Madison for 9 seasons, where he has finished tied for first in the Big Ten twice, and has three other top 4 finishes. He has been to 6 of the 8 NCAA tournaments. The Badgers went to the Sweet 16 in his first two seasons, but have only won two tournament games since.
The Badgers finished #17 at KenPom and lost to #12 seed James Madison in the opening round of the tNCAA ournament. After the season there was speculation that Coach Gard might be fired, but he is back for season #10.
Wisconsin fans have high expectations. Gard's 65% win percentage isn't as good as his predecessor Bo Ryan's. Ryan won 74% of his games and led them to two Final Fours. But to find another coach with a better record, you have to go back to Walter Meanwell who won 91% of his game from 1911 to 1917. Gard is a good coach, even if he is no Bo Ryan.
Last season Gard was blessed with almost prefect roster stablity. Four of their five starters started every game. The lone exception started 35 out of 36 games. All five starters combined missed exactly one game.
The Badgers had the #17 offense in the country and the #46 defense. Their three-point defense was terrible at #339.
GRADUATING
Wisconsin only had one senior on their roster last season, but he was a full-time starter.
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes |
| Tyler Wahl | 36 | 36 | 28 | 11 | 5 | 1.9 | |
| . | |||||||
| . |
Tyler Wahl was their third-leading scorer and second-leading rebounder. He led the team in blocks, but only with 0.6 blocks per game. They are not generally much of a shot-blocking team.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Can Return? |
Storr withdrew from the drafts but is transferring to Kansas.
TRANSFERRING OUT
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes | Destination |
| A J Storr | 36 | 36 | 29 | 17 | 3.9 | 0.9 | Kansas | |
| Chucky Hepburn | 35 | 35 | 33 | 9 | 3.3 | 3.9 | Louisville | |
| Connor Essegian | 33 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | Nebraska | |
| Gus Yalden | 0 | Seton Hall | ||||||
| Luke Haertle | 11 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | Winona State | |
| Isaac Lindsey | 18 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | South Dakota St |
A J Storr led the team in scoring. He was the #4 player in the transfer portal.
Chucky Hepburn has started every game in his three seasons in Madison. He wasn't a great shooter, but he had a 3.2 A/TO ratio which was #14 in the country. He was the #103 player in the portal.
I have a hard time understanding why anyone would call himself "Chucky".
Connor Essegian started 19 games as a freshman, but his minutes were dramatically reduced in his sophomore season, so he is moving on to another B1G team.
4-star recruit Gus Yalden got off to a rocky start before the season began when he was cited twice by Madison Police for possession of marijuana and underage drinking.
He missed several days of practice while recovering from an injury suffered in a scooter accident. He was was well down the rotation during preseason practices and eventually chose to redshirt. After creating plenty of buzz on campus for his arrival, Yalden will leave the program without having played a single minute for the Badgers.
Luke Haertle is tranferring to Winona State. I don't think it is named after Winona Judd or Winona Ryder, but stranger things have happened.
RETURNING
| STAT | RETURNING |
| Starts | 41% |
| Minutes | 51% |
| Points | 47% |
| 3-Pointers Made | 57% |
| Rebounds | 50% |
| Assists | 46% |
| Steals | 38% |
| Blocks | 51% |
The Badgers return 6 seniors from their rotation last season, including 2 starters. However, the other 4 seniors played less than 10 minutes per game.
Overall, Wisconsin's returning production is a bit above average for the Big Ten.
Looking at the returning players, this is not a bunch of highly-ranked recruits. There are no Top 100 players on the returning roster and none are coming in.
Wisconsin doesn't win with athletes. They tend to have big, strong guys who play physical, sound basketball.
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG% | 3Pt% | A/TO | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Steven Crowl F | 7-0 247 | 36 | 36 | 29 | 11 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 56% | 45% | 1.3 | Sr | 3 | 232 |
| Max Klesmit G | 6-4 200 | 36 | 36 | 29 | 10 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 44% | 40% | 1.7 | Sr | Unranked | |
| John Blackwell G | 6-4 194 | 34 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 45% | 46% | 0.8 | So | 3 | 212 |
| Nolan Winter F | 6-11 220 | 35 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 42% | 31% | 1.1 | So | 3 | 151 |
| Kamari McGee G | 6-0 180 | 25 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 54% | 27% | 1.4 | Sr | Unranked | |
| Carter Gilmore F | 6-7 232 | 33 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 49% | 25% | 1.0 | Sr | Unranked | |
| Markus Ilver F | 6-9 225 | 27 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 31% | 25% | 1.2 | Sr | 3 | 151 |
| Chris Hodges F | 6-9 250 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | Jr | Unranked |
The best thing about the returning group is that it includes three guys who shot 40% or more from the arc.
Steven Crowl led the tean in rebounds and he was their second-leading scorer. He scored in double figures in 6 of their last 7 games, but in the other game he was held scoreless by Zach Edey. He's 7 feet tall, but he was not your usual center. He their best three-point shooters among the starters, and he was their second best at assists.
Max Klesmit is the other player who started more than one game last season. He was 4th on the team in scoring.
John Blackwell is the leading sub who is returning. He is their best three-point shooter.
Nolan Winter is the backup center to Crowl.
Kamari McGee started his career at Wisconsin-Green Bay.
Carter Gilmore turned down scholarship offers from Appalachian State, Brown, DePaul, Illinois-Chicago, Indiana State, Missouri State, Southern Illinois and Wisconsin-Milwaukee.to walk-on at Wisconsin.
There's no one returning who looks like a point guard.
RECRUITS
(#63 class, #15 in B1G)
| Player | Size | Position | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Offers |
| Daniel Freitag | 6-2 195 | PG | 4 | 122 | Baylor, Iowa, Iowa St |
| Jack Robison | 6-6 190 | SG | 3 | 186 | Minnesota, Nebraska, USF |
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Daniel Freitag will be the highest-rated prospect on the roster. He is expected to play a significant role as either starting or backup PG.
Overall, this isn't a very impressive class.
TRANSFERRING IN
There is a big difference between how 247 and Evan Miya rank this class. I am not sure why.
| SOURCE | NATIONAL CLASS RANK | BIG TEN CLASS RANK |
| 247 | 53 | 11 |
| Evan Miya | 180 | 17 |
I am no
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG % | 3-Pt % | A/TO | From | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Transfer Rank |
| John Tonje | 6-5 215 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 50% | 33% | 0.5 | Missouri | Sr 5 | Unranked | 295 | |
| Xavier Amos | 6-8 215 | 25 | 25 | 31 | 14 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 50% | 39% | 0.5 | Northern Illinois | Jr | Unranked | 102 | |
| Camren Hunter | 6-3 200 | 30 | 30 | 34 | 17 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 42% | 31% | 1.4 | Central Arkansas | Sr | Unranked | 191 |
John Tonje played 4 years at Colorado State where he was a full-time starter by his senior year. Then he transferred to Missouri where he only played in 8 games due to a foot injury. He he turns the ball over a lot.
Xavier Amos seems to be a good shooter, but like Tonje, he seems to turn the ball over a lot. They are hoping he can fill the role that Tyler Wahl played.
Camren Hunter did not play last season due to a leg injury. His stats are from 2022-23. He started every game in the two seasons he played in the ASUN. With the need for a PG, he may be pressed into service, but a guy with a 1.4 A/TO ratio at Central Arkansas doesn't inspire confidence.
One writer says he expects Amos and Hunter to start for the Badgers (along with Klesmitt, Blackwell, and Crowl), so they must not think too much of some of those returning seniors.
CONCLUSION
This roster is probably the least talented in the B1G. They don't have a single 5-star or and only one 4-star player on the roster. This looks more like a mid-major than a Big Ten roster.
This is hardly unusual for Greg Gard. In the last 8 years his recruiting classes have averaged the 9.5th best class in a league of 14 teams. His teams have finished quite a bit higher than his talent would predict.
| Year | Recruiting Class Rank | Big Ten Rank | Finish in Big Ten |
| 2024 | 58 | 13 | 5 |
| 2023 | 34 | 7 | T-11 |
| 2022 | 106 | 14 (Last) | T-1 |
| 2021 | 33 | 5 | T-6 |
| 2020 | 34 | 5 | T-1 |
| 2019 | 135 | 14 | 4 |
| 2018 | 74 | 13 | |
| 2017 | 35 | 5 |
Without great recruiting, Greg Gard has taken Wisconsin to 4 of the last 5 NCAA tournaments. He has also tied for first in the Big Ten in two of the last five seasons. He must do a good combination of finding players who fit his system and coaching them.
Perhaps you might think he does it by killing it in the transfer portal, 247 has only been ranking transfer classes since 2022, but Gard hasn't been killing it there either.
| Year | Recruiting Class Rank | Big Ten Recruiting Class Rank | Transfer Class Rank | Finish in Big Ten |
| 2024 | 58 | 13 | 39 (10) | 5 |
| 2023 | 34 | 7 | 95 (11) | T-11 |
| 2022 | 106 | 14 (Last) | 112 (8) | T-1 |
| 2021 | 33 | 5 | T-6 | |
| 2020 | 34 | 5 | T-1 | |
| 2019 | 135 | 14 | 4 | |
| 2018 | 74 | 13 | ||
| 2017 | 35 | 5 |
Gard's teams play very slowly, and they don't turn the ball over.
| Year | Tempo Rank | Turnover Rate Rank |
| 2024 | 309 | 47 |
| 2023 | 343 | 2 |
| 2022 | 215 | 2 |
| 2021 | 317 | 3 |
Think of him as Mick Cronin, with less talent. Nonetheless, I still have a hard time seeing how he competes in the B1G with this roster. It doesn't help that Gard lost one of the best ball-handling point guards in the country in the transfer portal. If Gard was on a a coaching hot seat after last season, I think the temperature will be rising.
Torvick projects Wisconsin as the #42 team in the country and #10 in the B1G with a 17-14 record (10-10 in conference).
247 picks the Badgers 13th in the Big 10.
Lunardi doesn't project them making the tournament, or even on the bubble.
Vrooman also picks them 13th. He writes:
13. Wisconsin Badgers
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +14.64 (+20.06 last year)
Coaching Info: Greg Gard +8.20 (7th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 7’0 C Steven Crowl (11.2 pts, 7.3 reb), 6’4 G Max Klesmit (9.9 pts, 39.8% 3pt), 6’4 G John Blackwell (8.0 pts, 45.5% 3pt), 6’3 G Camren Hunter (Central Arkansas- 16.9 pts, 5.0 reb), 6’9 F Markus Ilver (1.1 pts, 1.3 reb)
Greg Gard has consistently been one of the most overachieving coaches at the high major level. In 9 seasons at Wisconsin he has has only missed 2 NCAA tournaments and the Badgers have had five top-25 KenPom finishes during that span including last year. Wisconsin fans though have gotten a little tired of the lack of postseason success as they haven’t been to a Sweet 16 since 2017 despite being a consistently good team that always takes care of the ball; but also always plays at a glacially slow pace.
This year Wisconsin will have to replace their leading scorer AJ Storr (16.8 ppg) who transferred to Kansas as well as their leading passer Chucky Hepburn (9.2 pts, 3.9 ast) who transferred to Louisville. That’s not great but the cupboard isn’t bare. Wisconsin returns three major contributors who all shot at least 40% from 3-point range last season so the spacing has a chance to be elite. Camren Hunter was an elite low major do-everything guard, and he’ll need to make a seamless transition if Wisconsin to finish in the top half of the B1G this year.