Post by mhbruin on Mar 29, 2024 9:56:54 GMT -8
CHANGES
5.18 Hoggard to Vanderbilt
5/14 Added transfer Szymon Zapala
====================
The Michigan State Spartans finished in a 3-way tie for 6th place in the B1G with a 10-10 Big Ten record. This isn't a terrible record, but it was disappointing after being picked #4 in the preseason AP poll. They won in the first round of the NCAA tournament, before being eliminated by North Carolina.
Their statistics weren't bad. They finished #16 in KenPom. They were #9 in the nation at defense and the second best defense in the Big Ten (after Rutgers). At #49, their offense wasn't terrible, either.
They are coached by some guy named Tom Izzo. He has been in East Lansing since 1995, which was a very good year in college basketball. Remember "Scoreless in Seattle"? "Edney going the distance"? "There was a wizard in the stands and some magic on the floor"?
Quotes about players are from Analyzing next season's Michigan State basketball roster as it might unfold – player by player
GRADUATING
These are the Spartans' top two scorers. Tyson Walker also led the team in steals and Malik Hall led the team in rebounds.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
Hoggard was the #3 scorer and team leader in assists. He withdrew from the draft, but he is transferring to Vanderbilt.
TRANSFERRING OUT
Sissoko wasn't a big scorer, but he was the second leading rebounder on the team.
Overall, Michigan State loses their top three scorers, their top two rebounders, and two of their top three assist leaders. That's a lot of production.
They also lose four starters.
RETURNING
Tom Izzo may be a hall of fame coach, but he is not doing it without talent. Almost every returning player is at least a 4-star, Top 100 recruit. He'll need the talent, because he only returns one starter.
However, Izzo played a lot of guys last season, so he returns a lot of experience. Although they lost 73% of their starts, they only lost 54% of their production.
The one returning starter is Jaden Akins. Every season, Spartan fans have been waiting for his breakout year. This is his last chance for one.
Akins was "the other starter" on a team where Walker, Hall, and Hoggard were the stars. He may need to provide leadership, but there is plenty of other talent. He still might not be the biggest star on the team. He might not need to be.
"Akins didn’t take the leap from his sophomore to junior year that he hoped. He finished at 36.4% on 3-point tries, down from 42.2% a year earlier, though was relied on more for volume — up from 3.9 long-range attempts per game to 5.0. He was, though, more efficient inside the arc this season, shooting nearly 46%, up from about 42%. His rebounds, assists, steals and blocks were all almost identical year over year."
Tre Holloman was the Spartans most efficient 3-point shooter and is a lock-down defender.
The Spartans have high hopes for Xavier Booker for next season. He's a very athletic 6-11 sophomore who can shoot the three. He is considered the best NBA prospect on the roster.
Jeremy Fears Jr. will be the starting point guard. Last season was cut short for Fears when he was shot in the leg back home in Illinois just before Christmas. That led to a lot of tears for Fears.
"Coen Carr was a ton of fun to watch at times as a freshman — because he’s an elite athlete and top-tier dunker. But he was fairly limited as a player."
Carson Cooper led the team in blocks but with only 0.9 per game. He is the only true center returning for next season.
Redshirt Gehrig Normand is said to be a good athete and shooter. When you are Tom Izzo, you can get away with sitting a 4-star freshman for a season.
RECRUITS
(#13 class, #2 in B1G)
Izzo's recruiting class included more highly-ranked recruits.
Jase Richardson is the son for former Spartan Jason Richardson who also played for Tom Izzo in East Lansing. He is expected to be the backup point guard.
Jesse McCulloch is expected to be a stretch four. Although he is listed as a 3-star, he had offers from some big-time programs.
TRANSFERRING IN
For a long time Tom Izzo didn't have much interest in pursuing transfers. As far as I can tell, he prevously only took two transfers, Tyson Walker and Joey Hauser. Michigan State fans were surprised when the took two transfers this off-season. Apparently 247 is so shocked they can't handle it. Their database only shows MSU with one tranfer.
Frankie Fidler was a first-team All-Summit League selection and the league’s second-leading scorer in conference play. He chose the Spartans over Wisconsin, Creighton and Nebraska.
Szymon Zapala played for three years at Utah State for Craig Smith and Ryan Odom, before playing a year for the Big South champion Lancers. You might wonder whether a player who was only a part-time starter and only played 17 minutes in the Big South is ready for the Big Ten, but the Spartans needed some size. He should back up Carson Cooper at center.
Don't be too impressed by Zapala's three-point shooting precentage. He only took three of them all season. OTOH, he seems to have excellent shot selection.
As far as I know Szymon never lived on Zzyzx Road.
CONCLUSION
Another View: 2024-25 Big Ten offseason at a glance: Michigan State Spartans
What's not to like about Michigan State.? Lots of talent. A 5-star and eight 4-stars. They will be one of the 2-3 most talented teams in the B1G. Lots of returning rotation players. A Hall-of-Fame Coach.
The one challenge for coach Izzo is replacing four starters. I suspect he is up to the task. It's not like MSU will be working in a bunch of brand new players. Seven players played at least 9 minutes per game last season.
People look at last season as a bad year for MSU. However, that was mostly because of the high pre-season ranking. They were a good team. Expectations are a bitch.
The Spartans should challenge for the Big Ten title and easily make the NCAA tournament.
Other predictions are all over the place.
Torvick projects Michigan State as the #20 team in the county and as #3 in the B1G. He projects a 20-11 record with 11-9 in conference.
247 predicts the Spartans to finish 11th in the Big Ten.
Lunardi predicts a #8 seed.
Vrooman predicts a tie for 9th in the Big Ten. He writes:
t-9. Michigan State Spartans
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +17.81 (+20.58 last year)
Coaching Info: Tom Izzo +3.94 (18th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’4 G Jaden Akins (10.4 pts, 3.9 reb), 6’11 F Xavier Booker (3.7 pts, 1.7 reb), 6’2 G Tre Holloman (5.7 pts, 2.4 ast), 6’7 F Frankie Fidler (Omaha- 20.1 pts, 6.3 reb), 6’5 F Coen Carr (3.1 pts, 1.8 reb)
Tom Izzo is undoubtedly one of the GOATs in college basketball coaching history but he hasn’t been better than a #7 seed in the NCAA tournament since 2019 when they last made the Final 4 (they were on track to be a #3 seed when the tourney got cancelled due to the pandemic). Last season was supposed to be the return to glory but the chemistry just never clicked despite a universal preseason top-5 rating and they lost 6 of their final 9 games to end the year.
This year it seems like they’re hoping for a chemistry reboot. Gone are 4 starters from last year’s team including their top-3 scorers. Izzo only brought in 2 transfers to try to replace them and instead is banking on internal development from the second string to lead them back to glory. There’s a lot of optimism around PG Jeremy Fears who isn’t on the player list in the intro summary but was a defensive terror before a season-ending injury. Add in Omaha transfer Frankie Fidler to be a veteran wing scorer and there’s a chance this is a roster that once again is greater than the sum of their parts and with a little less ego than last year.
5.18 Hoggard to Vanderbilt
5/14 Added transfer Szymon Zapala
====================
The Michigan State Spartans finished in a 3-way tie for 6th place in the B1G with a 10-10 Big Ten record. This isn't a terrible record, but it was disappointing after being picked #4 in the preseason AP poll. They won in the first round of the NCAA tournament, before being eliminated by North Carolina.
Their statistics weren't bad. They finished #16 in KenPom. They were #9 in the nation at defense and the second best defense in the Big Ten (after Rutgers). At #49, their offense wasn't terrible, either.
They are coached by some guy named Tom Izzo. He has been in East Lansing since 1995, which was a very good year in college basketball. Remember "Scoreless in Seattle"? "Edney going the distance"? "There was a wizard in the stands and some magic on the floor"?
Quotes about players are from Analyzing next season's Michigan State basketball roster as it might unfold – player by player
GRADUATING
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes |
| Tyson Walker | 34 | 34 | 33 | 18 | 2.9 | 2.8 | |
| Malik Hall | 35 | 34 | 29 | 13 | 5.7 | 1.9 | |
| . | |||||||
| . |
These are the Spartans' top two scorers. Tyson Walker also led the team in steals and Malik Hall led the team in rebounds.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Can Return? |
Hoggard was the #3 scorer and team leader in assists. He withdrew from the draft, but he is transferring to Vanderbilt.
TRANSFERRING OUT
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes | Destination |
| Mady Sissoko | 35 | 26 | 15 | 3 | 5.1 | 0.3 | California | |
| A.J. Hoggard | 35 | 34 | 29 | 11 | 3.9 | 5.2 | Vanderbilt |
Sissoko wasn't a big scorer, but he was the second leading rebounder on the team.
Overall, Michigan State loses their top three scorers, their top two rebounders, and two of their top three assist leaders. That's a lot of production.
They also lose four starters.
RETURNING
| STAT | RETURNING |
| Starts | 27% |
| Minutes | 47% |
| Points | 38% |
| 3-Pointers Made | 51% |
| Rebounds | 43% |
| Assists | 36% |
| Steals | 44% |
| Blocks | 69% |
Tom Izzo may be a hall of fame coach, but he is not doing it without talent. Almost every returning player is at least a 4-star, Top 100 recruit. He'll need the talent, because he only returns one starter.
However, Izzo played a lot of guys last season, so he returns a lot of experience. Although they lost 73% of their starts, they only lost 54% of their production.
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG% | 3Pt% | A/TO | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Jaden Akins G | 6-4 190 | 35 | 35 | 29 | 10 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 41% | 36% | 1.2 | Sr | 4 | 66 |
| Tre Holloman G | 6-2 180 | 35 | 2 | 20 | 6 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 48% | 43% | 2.8 | Jr | 4 | 87 |
| Xavier Booker F | 6-11 220 | 27 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 44% | 33% | 0.9 | So | 5 | 11 |
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 6-2 190 | 12 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 50% | 17% | 3.1 | So | 4 | 32 |
| Carson Cooper C | 6-11 240 | 35 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 52% | 0.6 | Jr | Unranked | ||
| Coen Carr F | 6-5 220 | 35 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 65% | 0.5 | So | 4 | 46 | |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 6-9 245 | 21 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 43% | 0.4 | Jr | 4 | 61 | |
| Gehrig Normand | 6-6 190 | Red shirt | Rs Fr | 4 | 124 |
The one returning starter is Jaden Akins. Every season, Spartan fans have been waiting for his breakout year. This is his last chance for one.
Akins was "the other starter" on a team where Walker, Hall, and Hoggard were the stars. He may need to provide leadership, but there is plenty of other talent. He still might not be the biggest star on the team. He might not need to be.
"Akins didn’t take the leap from his sophomore to junior year that he hoped. He finished at 36.4% on 3-point tries, down from 42.2% a year earlier, though was relied on more for volume — up from 3.9 long-range attempts per game to 5.0. He was, though, more efficient inside the arc this season, shooting nearly 46%, up from about 42%. His rebounds, assists, steals and blocks were all almost identical year over year."
Tre Holloman was the Spartans most efficient 3-point shooter and is a lock-down defender.
The Spartans have high hopes for Xavier Booker for next season. He's a very athletic 6-11 sophomore who can shoot the three. He is considered the best NBA prospect on the roster.
Jeremy Fears Jr. will be the starting point guard. Last season was cut short for Fears when he was shot in the leg back home in Illinois just before Christmas. That led to a lot of tears for Fears.
"Coen Carr was a ton of fun to watch at times as a freshman — because he’s an elite athlete and top-tier dunker. But he was fairly limited as a player."
Carson Cooper led the team in blocks but with only 0.9 per game. He is the only true center returning for next season.
Redshirt Gehrig Normand is said to be a good athete and shooter. When you are Tom Izzo, you can get away with sitting a 4-star freshman for a season.
RECRUITS
(#13 class, #2 in B1G)
Izzo's recruiting class included more highly-ranked recruits.
| Player | Size | Position | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Offers |
| Jase Richardson | 6-3 180 | CG | 4 | 31 | Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas |
| Kur Teng | 6-4 185 | SG | 4 | 51 | Rutgers, Auburn, Providence |
| Jesse McCulloch | 6-9 190 | PF | 3 | 165 | Alabama, Indiana, Iowa |
| . | |||||
| . | |||||
| . |
Jase Richardson is the son for former Spartan Jason Richardson who also played for Tom Izzo in East Lansing. He is expected to be the backup point guard.
Jesse McCulloch is expected to be a stretch four. Although he is listed as a 3-star, he had offers from some big-time programs.
TRANSFERRING IN
| SOURCE | NATIONAL CLASS RANK | BIG TEN CLASS RANK |
| 247 * | 96 | 15 |
| Evan Miya* | 118 | 11 |
For a long time Tom Izzo didn't have much interest in pursuing transfers. As far as I can tell, he prevously only took two transfers, Tyson Walker and Joey Hauser. Michigan State fans were surprised when the took two transfers this off-season. Apparently 247 is so shocked they can't handle it. Their database only shows MSU with one tranfer.
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG % | 3-Pt % | A/TO | From | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Transfer Rank |
| Frankie Fidler | 6-7 200 | 33 | 33 | 36 | 20 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 45% | 36% | 1.6 | Omaha | Sr | Unranked | 87 | |
| Szymon Zapala C | 7-0 240 | 35 | 24 | 17 | 10 | 5.6 | 0.3 | 63% | 67% | 0.2 | Longwood | Sr 5 | Unranked | Unranked | |
| . |
Frankie Fidler was a first-team All-Summit League selection and the league’s second-leading scorer in conference play. He chose the Spartans over Wisconsin, Creighton and Nebraska.
Szymon Zapala played for three years at Utah State for Craig Smith and Ryan Odom, before playing a year for the Big South champion Lancers. You might wonder whether a player who was only a part-time starter and only played 17 minutes in the Big South is ready for the Big Ten, but the Spartans needed some size. He should back up Carson Cooper at center.
Don't be too impressed by Zapala's three-point shooting precentage. He only took three of them all season. OTOH, he seems to have excellent shot selection.
As far as I know Szymon never lived on Zzyzx Road.
CONCLUSION
Another View: 2024-25 Big Ten offseason at a glance: Michigan State Spartans
What's not to like about Michigan State.? Lots of talent. A 5-star and eight 4-stars. They will be one of the 2-3 most talented teams in the B1G. Lots of returning rotation players. A Hall-of-Fame Coach.
The one challenge for coach Izzo is replacing four starters. I suspect he is up to the task. It's not like MSU will be working in a bunch of brand new players. Seven players played at least 9 minutes per game last season.
People look at last season as a bad year for MSU. However, that was mostly because of the high pre-season ranking. They were a good team. Expectations are a bitch.
The Spartans should challenge for the Big Ten title and easily make the NCAA tournament.
Other predictions are all over the place.
Torvick projects Michigan State as the #20 team in the county and as #3 in the B1G. He projects a 20-11 record with 11-9 in conference.
247 predicts the Spartans to finish 11th in the Big Ten.
Lunardi predicts a #8 seed.
Vrooman predicts a tie for 9th in the Big Ten. He writes:
t-9. Michigan State Spartans
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +17.81 (+20.58 last year)
Coaching Info: Tom Izzo +3.94 (18th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’4 G Jaden Akins (10.4 pts, 3.9 reb), 6’11 F Xavier Booker (3.7 pts, 1.7 reb), 6’2 G Tre Holloman (5.7 pts, 2.4 ast), 6’7 F Frankie Fidler (Omaha- 20.1 pts, 6.3 reb), 6’5 F Coen Carr (3.1 pts, 1.8 reb)
Tom Izzo is undoubtedly one of the GOATs in college basketball coaching history but he hasn’t been better than a #7 seed in the NCAA tournament since 2019 when they last made the Final 4 (they were on track to be a #3 seed when the tourney got cancelled due to the pandemic). Last season was supposed to be the return to glory but the chemistry just never clicked despite a universal preseason top-5 rating and they lost 6 of their final 9 games to end the year.
This year it seems like they’re hoping for a chemistry reboot. Gone are 4 starters from last year’s team including their top-3 scorers. Izzo only brought in 2 transfers to try to replace them and instead is banking on internal development from the second string to lead them back to glory. There’s a lot of optimism around PG Jeremy Fears who isn’t on the player list in the intro summary but was a defensive terror before a season-ending injury. Add in Omaha transfer Frankie Fidler to be a veteran wing scorer and there’s a chance this is a roster that once again is greater than the sum of their parts and with a little less ego than last year.