Post by mhbruin on Mar 28, 2024 13:59:33 GMT -8
CHANGES
5/16 added transfer Seydou Traore
5/29 Payton Sandfort withdraws from the draft.
Iowa got probably the best news in the Big Ten about the NBA draft, when their leading scorer and a likely second-round pick chose to withdraw from the draft.
====================
I haven't watched Iowa in years. Maybe the last time I watched, Lute Olsen was the coach. I am relying on this article for description of the players.
Taking stock of where Iowa men's basketball roster stands as offseason rolls on
Tre the Iowa Hawkeyes, finished in a 3-way tie for 6th place in the B1G. They are coached by Fran McCaffery who just finished his 14th season in Iowa City. In those 14 seasons, he has been to the NCAA tournament 7 times, including the three of the last four tournaments, but he has never made it past the second round.
They should be used to that in Iowa City. The last time they made it past the second round was in 1999, and the last time they made the Final Four was in 1980.
There are quite a few coaches with Pac-12 history who coached at Iowa. Ralph Miller, Lute Olsen, Geroge Raveling, and Steve Lavin. Since McCaffery wouldn't come to the Pac-12, it looks like the Pac-12 has come to McCaffery.
Here is Coach McCaffery in action:
Unlike the Iowa footall team, the basketball team could score. Iowa quietly had the #16 offense in the country. Maybe no one paid much attention because their defense was only #157. That may be why they were 3-10 in Quad 1 games.
The Hawkeyes didn't exactly play a killer OOC schedule. Their toughest games were a Quad 2 game against Seton Hall and a Quad 3 game against Arkansas State. Every other team was #240 or worse in the NET.
GRADUATING
"As a single-season transfer portal rental, Krikke was one of three Hawkeyes to start every game last season. He produced in that role, though his lack of defensive versatility and inconsistent rebounding hurt Iowa at times."
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
In very big news for the Hawkeyes, Payton Sandfort withdrew from the draft on the last day and will return to Iowa.
Payton Sandfort led the Hawkeys in scoring and was second in rebounding and assists.
TRANSFERRING OUT
I assume Tony Perkins is not psycho He led the team in assists and steals.
"Perkins, who played a major role for the Hawkeyes last season, is probably the biggest loss of the group. A second-team All-Big Ten selection (as voted by coaches), Perkins was the motor to Iowa’s offense last season because of his ability to attack the basket and create for others."
Patrick McCaffery is the coach's son, and he has spent 5 years in Iowa City, including a year off for treatment of thyroid cancer. "McCaffery’s somewhat tumultuous season ended with him providing a spark off the bench, but not necessarily morphing into a consistent, high-volume scorer like some had hoped."
"Bowen began last season in Iowa’s starting five but later moved into a decreased role off the bench before missing the last handful of games due to a knee injury."
RETURNING
Iowa returns 8 scholarship players, but only 3 of them contributed much last season. Between graduation, the draft, and transfers, Iowa loses two and one-half starters.
Iowa is near the top in the Big Ten in returniing production.
Coach McCaffrey builds most of his roster with high-school recruiting. Brauns is the only returning player who is a transfer (from Belmont). McCaffrey also doesn't have much in the way of highly-ranked players. However, he does seem to find players who fit his system of great ball handlers. He manages to compete in the B1G with a bunch of 3-star players, along with a 4-star or two sprinkled in.
This is a fairly young team for a group that returnsfive rotation players. Three of them were freshmen last year and only one of them will be a serniors.
The best returning player is Payton Sanfort. As mentioned he led the team in scoring, and he was second in rebounding and assists. He was third-team All Big Ten.
The next best returning player seems to be 6-10 Big Ten Co-Freshman of the Year, Owen Freeman. He was a good scorer and rebounder.
Josh Dix may be poised for a breakout season. In one thre-game stretch near the end of the season, he averaged over 21 points on 68% shooting, while shooting 62% on his threes.
Brock Harding had 2.6 assists per game in less than 11 minutes per game as a freshman. His A/TO ratio was a sterling 3.4. If he had played more minutes that would have put him in the top 10 in the country in A/TO ratio.
The rest of the guys didn't play much.
Other than incoming freshman Cooper Koch, Payton's brother Pryce Sandfort is the only Top 100 recruit on the roster.
Evan Brauns took 5 shots all season, and made them all. Maybe he should have shot more.
Coach McCaffrey chose to redshirt Riley Mulvey last season. In his sophomore year, he played in 12 games, averaging 4 minutes and 1 point. Mulvey scored just 27 total points in 29 appearances over two seasons
RECRUITS
(#49 class, #10 in B1G)
"Koch is ranked 82nd in the class nationally and Tadjo is 142nd, according to the 247Sports Composite. While both are listed at 6-foot-8, each has a unique skillset — with Koch being a high-level scorer and Tadjo possessing elite athleticism." Koch may have to come in and contribute right away.
Chris Tadjo is from the NBA Academy Latin America.
TRANSFERRING IN
According to 247, the only lower ranked transfer class in the B1G is Purdue with no transfers. Northern Iowa has a better transfer class.
Miya ranks them above Wisconsin and Purdue.
Drew Thelwell can pass well. He was #18 in the country in assists per game and #36 in A/TO ratio. If that translates from the Ohio Valley Conference, that would help the Iowa offense a lot. OTOH, he doesn't look like he will be a bigtime scorer. When he came out of HS, 247 called him a "shooting guard". Go figure.
From the Daily Iowan: "Hailing from New York City, Seydou Traore was the lone bright spot on a 7-23 Jaspers squad that finished in 10th place in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference standings. Though he can shoot the ball from distance, he is known for his ability to get to the rim and make plays, something the Hawkeyes have lacked over the past few years." Note: To the Daily Iowan, shooting 26% is "shooting from distance")
CONCLUSION
Another view: 2024-25 Big Ten offseason at a glance: Iowa Hawkeyes
Last season Iowa was #3 in the nation in A/TO ratio, behind UConn and Virginia. The team they are returning has some excellent ball-handlers.
Here are some ranks for Iowa from recent years:
Fran McCaffery teams have efficient offenses because they don't turn the ball over. In particular they don't have unforced errors with the ball. If you don't steal it, you aren't getting the ball.
His problem has been that his defense doesn't match up to his offense. When they do, as they did in 2021 and 2022, they are one of the top teams in the country.
As for the coming season, this roster has three good-looking players returning and possibly a very good point guard. On paper, they don't seem to have a ton of talent. On the other hand, this is a typical Fran McCaffrey roster. His teams tend to over-achieve. He has made the tournament half the time in Ames. I see making the tournament as a 50/50 propostion this year, too.
Torvick projects the Hawkeyes as the #55 team in the country and #16 team in the B1G. He projects a 17-14 record and 9-11 in the B1G.
247 picks them 12th.
Lunardi doesn't see them making the tournament.
Vrooman picks Iowa to finish 5th. He writes:
5. Iowa Hawkeyes
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +19.47 (+12.51 last year)
Coaching Info: Fran McCaffrey +7.89 (8th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’7 F Payton Sandfort (16.4 pts, 6.6 reb), 6’5 G Josh Dix (8.9 pts, 42.1% 3pt), 6’10 F Owen Freeman (10.6 pts, 6.6 reb), 6’3 G Drew Thelwell (Morehead St- 10.0 pts, 6.2 ast), 6’6 F Pryce Sandfort (2.3 pts, 1.1 reb), 6’9 C Evan Brauns (0.6 pts, 0.9 reb)
McCaffrey is right behind Wisconsin’s Greg Gard in the coach rankings in the top ten and somehow every year he emerges with exactly one NBA player. Luka Garza won a national player of the year award. Then he had the Murray twins (Keegan and Kris) lead the team for a year each. It looked like half of another brother duo, Payton Sandfort, was off to the NBA but he decided at the last second tonight to come back to school and pair with Pryce for one more season.
That vaulted Iowa from 12th to 5th in these rankings as now they have a legitimate star to build around. Also, they haven’t finished below .500 in conference play in 7 years and that’s why McCaffrey is an elite coach even if he’s easy to make fun of for his outbursts. A trio of returning major pieces led by Sandfort is reinforced by a few low major transfers. Drew Thelwell averaged 6+ assists last season while Seydou Traore is a great rebounding wing. Without Sandfort this would be a bottom-3 roster in the conference that McCaffrey would elevate to the middle of the pack. Now it’s a middle of the pack roster and gets elevated to just outside the top tier.
5/16 added transfer Seydou Traore
5/29 Payton Sandfort withdraws from the draft.
Iowa got probably the best news in the Big Ten about the NBA draft, when their leading scorer and a likely second-round pick chose to withdraw from the draft.
====================
I haven't watched Iowa in years. Maybe the last time I watched, Lute Olsen was the coach. I am relying on this article for description of the players.
Taking stock of where Iowa men's basketball roster stands as offseason rolls on
Tre the Iowa Hawkeyes, finished in a 3-way tie for 6th place in the B1G. They are coached by Fran McCaffery who just finished his 14th season in Iowa City. In those 14 seasons, he has been to the NCAA tournament 7 times, including the three of the last four tournaments, but he has never made it past the second round.
They should be used to that in Iowa City. The last time they made it past the second round was in 1999, and the last time they made the Final Four was in 1980.
There are quite a few coaches with Pac-12 history who coached at Iowa. Ralph Miller, Lute Olsen, Geroge Raveling, and Steve Lavin. Since McCaffery wouldn't come to the Pac-12, it looks like the Pac-12 has come to McCaffery.
Here is Coach McCaffery in action:
Unlike the Iowa footall team, the basketball team could score. Iowa quietly had the #16 offense in the country. Maybe no one paid much attention because their defense was only #157. That may be why they were 3-10 in Quad 1 games.
The Hawkeyes didn't exactly play a killer OOC schedule. Their toughest games were a Quad 2 game against Seton Hall and a Quad 3 game against Arkansas State. Every other team was #240 or worse in the NET.
GRADUATING
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes |
| Ben Krikke | 34 | 34 | 31 | 15 | 7 | 2.7 | Valpo grad transfer |
"As a single-season transfer portal rental, Krikke was one of three Hawkeyes to start every game last season. He produced in that role, though his lack of defensive versatility and inconsistent rebounding hurt Iowa at times."
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
In very big news for the Hawkeyes, Payton Sandfort withdrew from the draft on the last day and will return to Iowa.
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Can Return? |
| Payton Sandfort | 34 | 34 | 31 | 16 | 6.6 | 2.7 | Yes |
Payton Sandfort led the Hawkeys in scoring and was second in rebounding and assists.
TRANSFERRING OUT
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes | Destination |
| Tony Perkins | 34 | 34 | 31 | 14 | 4 | 4.6 | Missouti | |
| Patrick McCaffery | 31 | 15 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 1.2 | Butler | |
| Dasonte Bowen | 25 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | St. Bonaventure | |
| | ||||||||
I assume Tony Perkins is not psycho He led the team in assists and steals.
"Perkins, who played a major role for the Hawkeyes last season, is probably the biggest loss of the group. A second-team All-Big Ten selection (as voted by coaches), Perkins was the motor to Iowa’s offense last season because of his ability to attack the basket and create for others."
Patrick McCaffery is the coach's son, and he has spent 5 years in Iowa City, including a year off for treatment of thyroid cancer. "McCaffery’s somewhat tumultuous season ended with him providing a spark off the bench, but not necessarily morphing into a consistent, high-volume scorer like some had hoped."
"Bowen began last season in Iowa’s starting five but later moved into a decreased role off the bench before missing the last handful of games due to a knee injury."
RETURNING
Iowa returns 8 scholarship players, but only 3 of them contributed much last season. Between graduation, the draft, and transfers, Iowa loses two and one-half starters.
| STAT | RETURNING |
| Starts | 46% |
| Minutes | 54% |
| Points | 53% |
| 3-Pointers Made | 74% |
| Rebounds | 55% |
| Assists | 51% |
| Steals | 53% |
| Blocks | 75% |
Iowa is near the top in the Big Ten in returniing production.
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG% | 3-Pt % | A/TO | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Payton Sandfort F | 6-7 215 | 34 | 34 | 31 | 16 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 45% | 38% | 2.0 | Sr | 3 | 148 |
| Owen Freeman F | 6-10 230 | 34 | 25 | 23 | 11 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 61% | 1.1 | So | 3 | 159 | |
| Josh Dix G | 6-5 200 | 34 | 20 | 24 | 9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 55% | 42% | 2.5 | Jr | 3 | 162 |
| Brock Harding G | 6-0 162 | 34 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 36% | 38% | 3.4 | So | 3 | 150 |
| Pryce Sandfort F | 6-6 205 | 32 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 36% | 35% | 4.7 | So | 4 | 99 |
| Ladji Dembele F | 6-8 250 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 38% | 31% | 0.7 | So | 3 | 186 |
| Even Brauns C | 6-9 245 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 100% | 0.4 | Sr 5 | 3 | 247 | |
| Riley Mulvey F | 6-11 245 | Jr | 3 | 205 |
Coach McCaffrey builds most of his roster with high-school recruiting. Brauns is the only returning player who is a transfer (from Belmont). McCaffrey also doesn't have much in the way of highly-ranked players. However, he does seem to find players who fit his system of great ball handlers. He manages to compete in the B1G with a bunch of 3-star players, along with a 4-star or two sprinkled in.
This is a fairly young team for a group that returnsfive rotation players. Three of them were freshmen last year and only one of them will be a serniors.
The best returning player is Payton Sanfort. As mentioned he led the team in scoring, and he was second in rebounding and assists. He was third-team All Big Ten.
The next best returning player seems to be 6-10 Big Ten Co-Freshman of the Year, Owen Freeman. He was a good scorer and rebounder.
Josh Dix may be poised for a breakout season. In one thre-game stretch near the end of the season, he averaged over 21 points on 68% shooting, while shooting 62% on his threes.
Brock Harding had 2.6 assists per game in less than 11 minutes per game as a freshman. His A/TO ratio was a sterling 3.4. If he had played more minutes that would have put him in the top 10 in the country in A/TO ratio.
The rest of the guys didn't play much.
Other than incoming freshman Cooper Koch, Payton's brother Pryce Sandfort is the only Top 100 recruit on the roster.
Evan Brauns took 5 shots all season, and made them all. Maybe he should have shot more.
Coach McCaffrey chose to redshirt Riley Mulvey last season. In his sophomore year, he played in 12 games, averaging 4 minutes and 1 point. Mulvey scored just 27 total points in 29 appearances over two seasons
RECRUITS
(#49 class, #10 in B1G)
| Player | Size | Position | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Offers |
| Cooper Koch | 6-8 205 | SF | 4 | 82 | Illinois, Indiana, Purdue |
| Chris Tadjo | 6-8 220 | PF | 3 | 142 | Akron |
| . | |||||
| . |
"Koch is ranked 82nd in the class nationally and Tadjo is 142nd, according to the 247Sports Composite. While both are listed at 6-foot-8, each has a unique skillset — with Koch being a high-level scorer and Tadjo possessing elite athleticism." Koch may have to come in and contribute right away.
Chris Tadjo is from the NBA Academy Latin America.
TRANSFERRING IN
| SOURCE | NATIONAL CLASS RANK | BIG TEN CLASS RANK |
| 247 | 151 | 17 |
| Evan Miya | 161 | 16 |
According to 247, the only lower ranked transfer class in the B1G is Purdue with no transfers. Northern Iowa has a better transfer class.
Miya ranks them above Wisconsin and Purdue.
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG % | 3-Pt % | A/TO | From | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Transfer Rank |
| Drew Thelwell G | 6-3 195 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 10 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 44% | 34% | 2.7 | Morehead State | Sr5 | Unranked | Unranked | |
| Seydou Traore G | 6-7 215 | 28 | 27 | 32 | 12 | 8.2 | 2.3 | 43% | 26% | 1.3 | Manhattan | So | Unranked | Unranked | |
| . |
Drew Thelwell can pass well. He was #18 in the country in assists per game and #36 in A/TO ratio. If that translates from the Ohio Valley Conference, that would help the Iowa offense a lot. OTOH, he doesn't look like he will be a bigtime scorer. When he came out of HS, 247 called him a "shooting guard". Go figure.
From the Daily Iowan: "Hailing from New York City, Seydou Traore was the lone bright spot on a 7-23 Jaspers squad that finished in 10th place in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference standings. Though he can shoot the ball from distance, he is known for his ability to get to the rim and make plays, something the Hawkeyes have lacked over the past few years." Note: To the Daily Iowan, shooting 26% is "shooting from distance")
CONCLUSION
Another view: 2024-25 Big Ten offseason at a glance: Iowa Hawkeyes
Last season Iowa was #3 in the nation in A/TO ratio, behind UConn and Virginia. The team they are returning has some excellent ball-handlers.
Here are some ranks for Iowa from recent years:
| Year | Offensive Eff | Turnover Rate | Non-Steal Turnovers | Defensive Efficiency | KenPom Rank |
| 2024 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 157 | 57 |
| 2023 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 168 | 41 |
| 2022 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 80 | 13 |
| 2021 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 75 | 7 |
Fran McCaffery teams have efficient offenses because they don't turn the ball over. In particular they don't have unforced errors with the ball. If you don't steal it, you aren't getting the ball.
His problem has been that his defense doesn't match up to his offense. When they do, as they did in 2021 and 2022, they are one of the top teams in the country.
As for the coming season, this roster has three good-looking players returning and possibly a very good point guard. On paper, they don't seem to have a ton of talent. On the other hand, this is a typical Fran McCaffrey roster. His teams tend to over-achieve. He has made the tournament half the time in Ames. I see making the tournament as a 50/50 propostion this year, too.
Torvick projects the Hawkeyes as the #55 team in the country and #16 team in the B1G. He projects a 17-14 record and 9-11 in the B1G.
247 picks them 12th.
Lunardi doesn't see them making the tournament.
Vrooman picks Iowa to finish 5th. He writes:
5. Iowa Hawkeyes
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +19.47 (+12.51 last year)
Coaching Info: Fran McCaffrey +7.89 (8th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’7 F Payton Sandfort (16.4 pts, 6.6 reb), 6’5 G Josh Dix (8.9 pts, 42.1% 3pt), 6’10 F Owen Freeman (10.6 pts, 6.6 reb), 6’3 G Drew Thelwell (Morehead St- 10.0 pts, 6.2 ast), 6’6 F Pryce Sandfort (2.3 pts, 1.1 reb), 6’9 C Evan Brauns (0.6 pts, 0.9 reb)
McCaffrey is right behind Wisconsin’s Greg Gard in the coach rankings in the top ten and somehow every year he emerges with exactly one NBA player. Luka Garza won a national player of the year award. Then he had the Murray twins (Keegan and Kris) lead the team for a year each. It looked like half of another brother duo, Payton Sandfort, was off to the NBA but he decided at the last second tonight to come back to school and pair with Pryce for one more season.
That vaulted Iowa from 12th to 5th in these rankings as now they have a legitimate star to build around. Also, they haven’t finished below .500 in conference play in 7 years and that’s why McCaffrey is an elite coach even if he’s easy to make fun of for his outbursts. A trio of returning major pieces led by Sandfort is reinforced by a few low major transfers. Drew Thelwell averaged 6+ assists last season while Seydou Traore is a great rebounding wing. Without Sandfort this would be a bottom-3 roster in the conference that McCaffrey would elevate to the middle of the pack. Now it’s a middle of the pack roster and gets elevated to just outside the top tier.