Post by mhbruin on Mar 27, 2024 9:28:44 GMT -8
CHANGES
Bragi Gudmundsson to Campbell
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The Penn State Nittany Lions are coached by Mike Rhoades who just finished his first season in State College (what a creative name for a town!). Prior to this, he took VCU to the NCAA tournament 3 times in 6 seasons, but they never won a tournament game.
Last season Penn State (not to be confused with "State Pen" where former football coach Jerry Sandusky resides) finished in a three-way tie for 9th place in the B1G with 16-17 record. They weren't terrible at anything, but they weren't very good at anything, either. They were just mediocre.
They had two good wins last season over Illinois and Wisconsin, but also a loss to Bucknell. They were 3-13 away from the Bryce Jordan Center. (Bryce Jordan was a musicologist who also served as President of Penn State.)
With Dusty May and Mike Rhodes, the B1G has a Dusty and a Rhodes. Dusty Rhodes was a wrestler.
Since I have not watched a single minute of Penn State basketball last season, I am going to rely on this aricle for player descriptions: Penn State Men’s Basketball Roster Reset
GRADUATING
Qudus Wahab couldn't make up his mind. He played 2 seasons at Georgetown, then transferred to Maryland, then back to Georgetown, and finally Penn State. He led Penn State in rebounds and blocks and had almost half of their total blocks.
RayQuawndis Mitchell is another modern player, spenidng four seasons at four different schools. He had his biggest success with the Kansas Ciry Roos.
Leo O'Boyle spent 4 season at Lafayette, before finishing his career at Penn State. Four years at one school. How quaint!
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
TRANSFERRING OUT
Clary left the team in February. He was their leading scorer, and he was their best three-point shooter although only at 38%. They were 12-11 with Clary. They were 4-4 without him. It doesn't seems like his departure changed much.
Most of the rest of the guys in the portal weren't important rotation players and they are all transferring to schools in lower conferences.
With three graduates and five transfers, the Nittnay Lions are losing eight players. However, the only big losses are Wahab and Clary, and Clary was only part of the team for 3/4ths of the season.
RETURNING
Penn State is the #3 team in the Big Ten for returning production from last season. However, they lose a lot of rebounding and almost all their rim protection. Losing Qudus Wahab to graduation leaves a big hole to fill.
The Nittany Lions return two full-time starters and three other part-time starters. They are all seniors, and two of them are 5th-year seniors. That's an excellent nucleus for next season. If there were a center there, they would have a starting lineup. No one is over 6-8 and the beefiest guy is 205 lbs. They are going to need someone to play center.
The second problem is shooting. Kern is the only one with a decent shooting percentage, and none of them are great three-point shooters. You might hope their shooting would improve, but they have all been playing college hoops for years. Players don't usually make a great leap forward after 3-4 years.
Coach Rhodes has a bit of a North Carolina pipline going. Johnson and Dunn both transferred from North Carolina, where neither produced very much.
Ace Balwin is an excellent PG. He may not have a great ranking out of high school, but he was offered by UConn, and they seem to know how to evaluate players. They love good passers, and he is one. He was #24 in the country in assists per game, and this was on a team that wasn't loaded with great shooters. (Don't confuse him with Rutgers' 5-star freshman Ace Bailey.)
"D'Marco Dunn: It was a bit of an up and down year for Dunn who showcased a lot of potential but also showcased a few shortcomings in his game. Dunn can hit the three but couldn't quite figure it out on a consistent basis. In general Dunn's game has resulted in more good than bad, but his minutes and his production fluctuated a bit too much after a three game stretch of solid play in the middle of the season.
After the departure of Clary mid-season, Dunn started 12 of the last 14 ganes. for PSU.
"Zach Hicks: Hicks had a seven game stretch of double figure scoring but struggled a bit in the final five games of the year scoring, 2, 6, 2, 20 and 11 points respectively in those games. Hicks gives Penn State a legitimate threat from beyond the arc and solid rebounding to make him one of the better two-way players on the roster. Even with a bit of a slide Hicks overwhelmingly finished the season in better form than how he started it. Don't be surprised if he picks up where he left off on that front.
"Nick Kern Jr.: The duo of Hicks and Kern Jr were a solid compliment to Ace Baldwin Jr throughout the year with Kern Jr getting to double figures on 12 occasions and providing the Nittany Lions with plenty of toughness throughout the season. Kern Jr rounded out into an efficient scorer going 54.7% from the field on the year. He and Hicks stand to be a cornerstone to every night starting lineups in 2024.
"Puff Johnson: Johnson came to Penn State with a lot of expectations and never quite found his footing to the degree fans were hoping for. An injury didn't help that cause any either but Johnson did score in double-figures three of the final four games of the year and generally played his best basketball of his short Penn State career the final stretch of the season. Johnson's return is a good thing for Penn State and it seems very likely that a second year in the program will only help him become a more consistent player each night. An interesting aside, Johnson recorded just four turnovers last year and has 18 total to his name through four seasons of play.
Puff Johnson never averaged more than 4 points in his three seasons for North Carolina. He got more playing time for Penn State and got up to 7 points.
RECRUITS
(#23 class, #4 in BiG)
I am puzzled how 247 ranks this as a Top 25 class, with a 4-star and three 3-star players. I think part of it is that with the emergence of the portal, not that many teams are bringing in as many as 4 recruits. Only 4 teams out of 18 in the Big Ten are bringing in 4 or more recruits. Penn State is getting credit for quantity, if not quality.
"Jahvin Carter: A 6-foot-2, 175 pound combo guard out of Tennessee, Carter is rated a three star prospect by all relevant recruiting outlets. Carter picked up offers from Georgia Tech, Middle Tennessee State and Appalachian State among others. Good depth addition for team that will need guards down the road.
"Dominick Stewart: Another combo guard in the fold, Stewart hits the scales at 6-foot-5, 180 pounds playing out of southern California. Butler, California, Creighton, George Mason. Stewart is originally from Baltimore giving him far more east coast ties than his high school bio might lead you to believe. Stewart is teammates with fellow incoming freshman Miles Goodman, a plus for some early chemistry.
"Hudson Ward: The Canadian product gives Penn State a bit of international flair once again and the 6-foot-7, 210 small forward also gives the Nittany Lions some depth at that position even with the well known commodities already on the roster. Ward had picked up offers from places as far away as Florida and San Jose, but State College is still *only* a 34-hour car ride back to Edmonton.
"Miles Goodman: The best piece of Penn State's 2024 class and another prospect with west coast ties, the Seattle native is rated a four-star prospect and the No. 96 player in the cycle according to the 247 Network. Goodman is a 6-10 center and could provide some immediate depth and production this upcoming season, although at 210 pounds, he would probably stand to put on a bit of weight. Goodman is high school teammates with Dominick Stewart.
TRANSFERRING IN
A middling freshman class is supplemented with a mediocre transfer class.
Evan Miya is a lot less impresssed with this class than 247 is.
Three of the transfers come from power conference programs, but they were not starters. The only guy who started for his previous school comes from Northern Illinois.
"Eli Rice: An interesting product of the transfer portal, Rice - a guard - is the first Penn State men's basketball transfer to have come from a Big Ten team. At 6-foot-8 and 215 pounds, Rice brings three seasons of eligibility with him but is also coming off an injury. Rice shot 37 percent from three and 41.3 percent from the field in his 17 appearances as a true freshman. He missed the final 13 games of the year with that ankle injury.
"Kachi Nzeh: More incoming size, the 6-foot-8 center does to Penn State by way of Xavier with three seasons of eligibility remaining. He averaged just 2.5 points per game in just under 10 minutes per game. His best showing so far at the collegiate level of a 13-pint, six-rebound effort against Georgetown. He is a product of Upper Darby, Pa where he was coached by former Nittany Lion Ben Luber. He was named the Philadelphia Sports Digest Non-PIAA Player of the Year. At one point the 247 Network had tabbed Nzeh as the state's second-best product and a four-star recruit according to the site's composite rankings.
Nzeh averaged 10 minutes per game and had 7 blocks in 19 games for a bad Xavier team.
"Yanic Konan Niederhauser: Up there for best name in program history, the seven footer (or is he 6-10?) clocks in a 255 pounds out of Northern Illinois. He appeared in 47 games, showing up in 27 games last season clocking in just over seven points per contest with a 54.1% shooting rate. He managed just over two blocks per contest and scored in double figures nine times as a sophomore. He comes to Penn State with plenty of size and two years of eligibility remaining."
Yanic Konan Niederhäuser brings some much needed size to the roster, but he only played 20 minutes a game at Northern Illinois. You have to wonder if he is ready for the step up in class. Given how much of their rebounding and rim protection the Lions lost, they could really use production in those areas from Niederhäuser.
Niederhäuser is from Switzerland. He may be the first Swiss player to play for a Power 5 college team.
Freddie Dilione V was a highly-rated recruit, but he didn't get a ton of playing time on a loaded, veteran roster at Tennessee. His poor three-point shooting may have been a factor.
CONCLUSION
In his first season in State College, Coach Rhoades brought in 9 transfers. This season he has brought in 8 new players. Maybe next season he will bring in 7.
The Nittany Lions have a decent roster with five returning seniors and four 4-star players. However, most of the four-star players are guys who didn't produce much at big-time schools and transferred to Penn State. They return a pretty good nucleus, but the incoming freshmen and transfers aren't all that impressive.
I think the returning core is good enough to provide 5 quality starters. It is the depth that is the issue. They will need a newcomer to play center, and they will need to find some quality subs. If they find the depth, they will be a pretty good team.
When you return 5 guys who started, it seems reasonable to think they will improve, just with a year of maturity and experience. I think they will improve on their 9th-place finish from last season, but I don't see them as a tournament team. They have maturity and experience, but I question the depth . Maybe they improve to 7th.
Everyone else is far more pessimistic about Penn State.
Torvick projects Penn State as the #77 team in the country and the #18 team in the Big Ten with a 16-15 record and 8-12 in conference.
247 picks the Nittany Lions to finish 16th.
Vrooman picks them to finish dead last. He writes:
18. Penn State Nittany Lions
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +11.02 (+10.49 last year)
Coaching Info: Mike Rhoades -6.67 (75th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’1 G Ace Baldwin (14.2 pts, 6.0 ast), 6’8 F Puff Johnson (7.3 pts, 3.1 reb), 6’5 G D’Marco Dunn (6.8 pts, 36.6% 3pt), 6’8 F Zach Hicks (8.4 pts, 3.9 reb), 6’6 G Nick Kern (8.7 pts, 3.9 reb)
Mike Rhoades came over as head coach before last season with Penn State coming off their first NCAA tournament appearance in 11 years. That was a little misleading since Penn State was projected to be a #6 seed in 2020 before the tournament was cancelled amid the pandemic. They also won the NIT in 2018 after failing to earn an at large bid thanks to a sub-300 non-conference strength of schedule. Still, it’s safe to say that PSU basketball has been one of the bottom feeders in the Big Ten over the last decade.
It was a complete rebuild for Rhoades as Penn State was 353rd in the country in minutes continuity last year. Eight transfers joined the team including a pair of starters that Rhoades brought with him from VCU. This season will be much more about internal development as Penn State brings back 5 of their top 7 scorers and should be one of the national leaders in continuity.
The star will be Ace Baldwin who won B1G Defensive Player of the Year and finished 3rd in the B1G in assists per game but only made 38% of his shots from the field. There are a slew of productive 6’6 to 6’8 forwards but the center spot is a bit of an unknown. Gone is Qudus Wahab who led the team in rebounds and blocks and there’s not a clear replacement. Incoming freshman (and former O’Dea star) Miles Goodman will be one of only two players on the roster taller than 6’8.
There’s a good shot that my model is underestimating Penn State. My model expected too much of last year’s squad given it was almost all transfers and that hurt Rhoades’ coaching grade for this year when he’s instead bringing everyone back. I’d bet the over on Penn State given what my model spit out but a tournament berth is still a major stretch even so.
Bragi Gudmundsson to Campbell
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The Penn State Nittany Lions are coached by Mike Rhoades who just finished his first season in State College (what a creative name for a town!). Prior to this, he took VCU to the NCAA tournament 3 times in 6 seasons, but they never won a tournament game.
Last season Penn State (not to be confused with "State Pen" where former football coach Jerry Sandusky resides) finished in a three-way tie for 9th place in the B1G with 16-17 record. They weren't terrible at anything, but they weren't very good at anything, either. They were just mediocre.
They had two good wins last season over Illinois and Wisconsin, but also a loss to Bucknell. They were 3-13 away from the Bryce Jordan Center. (Bryce Jordan was a musicologist who also served as President of Penn State.)
With Dusty May and Mike Rhodes, the B1G has a Dusty and a Rhodes. Dusty Rhodes was a wrestler.
Since I have not watched a single minute of Penn State basketball last season, I am going to rely on this aricle for player descriptions: Penn State Men’s Basketball Roster Reset
GRADUATING
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes |
| Qudus Wahab | 33 | 33 | 26 | 10 | 7.8 | 0.5 | Led team in rebounds and blocks |
| RayQuawndis Mitchell | 22 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | |
| Leo O'Boyle | 33 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | |
| . | |||||||
| . |
Qudus Wahab couldn't make up his mind. He played 2 seasons at Georgetown, then transferred to Maryland, then back to Georgetown, and finally Penn State. He led Penn State in rebounds and blocks and had almost half of their total blocks.
RayQuawndis Mitchell is another modern player, spenidng four seasons at four different schools. He had his biggest success with the Kansas Ciry Roos.
Leo O'Boyle spent 4 season at Lafayette, before finishing his career at Penn State. Four years at one school. How quaint!
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Can Return? |
| - None - | |||||||
TRANSFERRING OUT
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes | Destination |
| Kanye Clary | 23 | 20 | 30 | 17 | 2.9 | 2.8 | Mississippi St | |
| Jameel Brown | 27 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | Temple | |
| Demetrius Lilley | 20 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 2.7 | 0.2 | LaSalle | |
| Bragi Gudmundsson | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | Campbell | |
| Favour Aire | 12 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | ||
Clary left the team in February. He was their leading scorer, and he was their best three-point shooter although only at 38%. They were 12-11 with Clary. They were 4-4 without him. It doesn't seems like his departure changed much.
Most of the rest of the guys in the portal weren't important rotation players and they are all transferring to schools in lower conferences.
With three graduates and five transfers, the Nittnay Lions are losing eight players. However, the only big losses are Wahab and Clary, and Clary was only part of the team for 3/4ths of the season.
RETURNING
| STAT | RETURNING |
| Starts | 65% |
| Minutes | 59% |
| Points | 63% |
| 3-Pointers Made | 78% |
| Rebounds | 41% |
| Assists | 77% |
| Steals | 62% |
| Blocks | 28% |
Penn State is the #3 team in the Big Ten for returning production from last season. However, they lose a lot of rebounding and almost all their rim protection. Losing Qudus Wahab to graduation leaves a big hole to fill.
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG% | 3Pt% | A/TO | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Ace Baldwin Jr. G | 6-1 190 | 33 | 31 | 36 | 14 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 39% | 33% | 2.3 | Sr 5 | 3 | 242 |
| Nick Kern Jr. G | 6-6 200 | 32 | 23 | 25 | 9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 55% | 32% | 0.7 | Sr | 3 | 188 |
| Zach Hicks F | 6-8 200 | 33 | 33 | 27 | 9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 35% | 34% | 1.2 | Sr | 3 | 294 |
| Puff Johnson F | 6-8 205 | 29 | 12 | 20 | 7 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 42% | 33% | 1.3 | Sr 5 | 4 | 69 |
| D'Marco Dunn G | 6-5 195 | 33 | 12 | 18 | 7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 40% | 37% | 0.8 | Sr | 4 | 68 |
| . |
The Nittany Lions return two full-time starters and three other part-time starters. They are all seniors, and two of them are 5th-year seniors. That's an excellent nucleus for next season. If there were a center there, they would have a starting lineup. No one is over 6-8 and the beefiest guy is 205 lbs. They are going to need someone to play center.
The second problem is shooting. Kern is the only one with a decent shooting percentage, and none of them are great three-point shooters. You might hope their shooting would improve, but they have all been playing college hoops for years. Players don't usually make a great leap forward after 3-4 years.
Coach Rhodes has a bit of a North Carolina pipline going. Johnson and Dunn both transferred from North Carolina, where neither produced very much.
Ace Balwin is an excellent PG. He may not have a great ranking out of high school, but he was offered by UConn, and they seem to know how to evaluate players. They love good passers, and he is one. He was #24 in the country in assists per game, and this was on a team that wasn't loaded with great shooters. (Don't confuse him with Rutgers' 5-star freshman Ace Bailey.)
"D'Marco Dunn: It was a bit of an up and down year for Dunn who showcased a lot of potential but also showcased a few shortcomings in his game. Dunn can hit the three but couldn't quite figure it out on a consistent basis. In general Dunn's game has resulted in more good than bad, but his minutes and his production fluctuated a bit too much after a three game stretch of solid play in the middle of the season.
After the departure of Clary mid-season, Dunn started 12 of the last 14 ganes. for PSU.
"Zach Hicks: Hicks had a seven game stretch of double figure scoring but struggled a bit in the final five games of the year scoring, 2, 6, 2, 20 and 11 points respectively in those games. Hicks gives Penn State a legitimate threat from beyond the arc and solid rebounding to make him one of the better two-way players on the roster. Even with a bit of a slide Hicks overwhelmingly finished the season in better form than how he started it. Don't be surprised if he picks up where he left off on that front.
"Nick Kern Jr.: The duo of Hicks and Kern Jr were a solid compliment to Ace Baldwin Jr throughout the year with Kern Jr getting to double figures on 12 occasions and providing the Nittany Lions with plenty of toughness throughout the season. Kern Jr rounded out into an efficient scorer going 54.7% from the field on the year. He and Hicks stand to be a cornerstone to every night starting lineups in 2024.
"Puff Johnson: Johnson came to Penn State with a lot of expectations and never quite found his footing to the degree fans were hoping for. An injury didn't help that cause any either but Johnson did score in double-figures three of the final four games of the year and generally played his best basketball of his short Penn State career the final stretch of the season. Johnson's return is a good thing for Penn State and it seems very likely that a second year in the program will only help him become a more consistent player each night. An interesting aside, Johnson recorded just four turnovers last year and has 18 total to his name through four seasons of play.
Puff Johnson never averaged more than 4 points in his three seasons for North Carolina. He got more playing time for Penn State and got up to 7 points.
RECRUITS
(#23 class, #4 in BiG)
| Player | Size | Position | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Offers |
| Miles Goodman | 6-10 275 | C | 4 | 95 | TCU, California, Georgetown |
| Jahvin Carter | 6-2 175 | SG | 3 | 232 | Georgia Tech, Middle Tenn, Belmont |
| Hudson Ward | 6-7 210 | SF | 3 | 177 | New Mexico, San Diego, Albany |
| Dominick Stewart | 6-5 180 | CG | 3 | -- | Creighton, California, Butler |
| . |
I am puzzled how 247 ranks this as a Top 25 class, with a 4-star and three 3-star players. I think part of it is that with the emergence of the portal, not that many teams are bringing in as many as 4 recruits. Only 4 teams out of 18 in the Big Ten are bringing in 4 or more recruits. Penn State is getting credit for quantity, if not quality.
"Jahvin Carter: A 6-foot-2, 175 pound combo guard out of Tennessee, Carter is rated a three star prospect by all relevant recruiting outlets. Carter picked up offers from Georgia Tech, Middle Tennessee State and Appalachian State among others. Good depth addition for team that will need guards down the road.
"Dominick Stewart: Another combo guard in the fold, Stewart hits the scales at 6-foot-5, 180 pounds playing out of southern California. Butler, California, Creighton, George Mason. Stewart is originally from Baltimore giving him far more east coast ties than his high school bio might lead you to believe. Stewart is teammates with fellow incoming freshman Miles Goodman, a plus for some early chemistry.
"Hudson Ward: The Canadian product gives Penn State a bit of international flair once again and the 6-foot-7, 210 small forward also gives the Nittany Lions some depth at that position even with the well known commodities already on the roster. Ward had picked up offers from places as far away as Florida and San Jose, but State College is still *only* a 34-hour car ride back to Edmonton.
"Miles Goodman: The best piece of Penn State's 2024 class and another prospect with west coast ties, the Seattle native is rated a four-star prospect and the No. 96 player in the cycle according to the 247 Network. Goodman is a 6-10 center and could provide some immediate depth and production this upcoming season, although at 210 pounds, he would probably stand to put on a bit of weight. Goodman is high school teammates with Dominick Stewart.
TRANSFERRING IN
A middling freshman class is supplemented with a mediocre transfer class.
| SOURCE | NATIONAL CLASS RANK | BIG TEN CLASS RANK |
| 247 | 46 | 10 |
| Evan Miya | 144 | 14 |
Evan Miya is a lot less impresssed with this class than 247 is.
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG % | 3-Pt % | A/TO | From | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Transfer Rank |
| Kachi Nzeh | 6-9 235 | 19 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 60% | -- | 0.7 | Xavier | So | 3 | 203 | 181 |
| Freddie Dilione V | 6-5 180 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 52% | 29% | 1.0 | Tennessee | So | 4 | 41 | 83 |
| Eli Rice | 6-8 213 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 41% | 37% | 1.5 | Nebraska | So | 3 | 200 | 220 |
| Yanic Konan Niederhäuser | 6-10 215 | 27 | 26 | 20 | 7 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 54% | 29% | 0.2 | No Illinois | Jr | Unkanked | Unranked |
Three of the transfers come from power conference programs, but they were not starters. The only guy who started for his previous school comes from Northern Illinois.
"Eli Rice: An interesting product of the transfer portal, Rice - a guard - is the first Penn State men's basketball transfer to have come from a Big Ten team. At 6-foot-8 and 215 pounds, Rice brings three seasons of eligibility with him but is also coming off an injury. Rice shot 37 percent from three and 41.3 percent from the field in his 17 appearances as a true freshman. He missed the final 13 games of the year with that ankle injury.
"Kachi Nzeh: More incoming size, the 6-foot-8 center does to Penn State by way of Xavier with three seasons of eligibility remaining. He averaged just 2.5 points per game in just under 10 minutes per game. His best showing so far at the collegiate level of a 13-pint, six-rebound effort against Georgetown. He is a product of Upper Darby, Pa where he was coached by former Nittany Lion Ben Luber. He was named the Philadelphia Sports Digest Non-PIAA Player of the Year. At one point the 247 Network had tabbed Nzeh as the state's second-best product and a four-star recruit according to the site's composite rankings.
Nzeh averaged 10 minutes per game and had 7 blocks in 19 games for a bad Xavier team.
"Yanic Konan Niederhauser: Up there for best name in program history, the seven footer (or is he 6-10?) clocks in a 255 pounds out of Northern Illinois. He appeared in 47 games, showing up in 27 games last season clocking in just over seven points per contest with a 54.1% shooting rate. He managed just over two blocks per contest and scored in double figures nine times as a sophomore. He comes to Penn State with plenty of size and two years of eligibility remaining."
Yanic Konan Niederhäuser brings some much needed size to the roster, but he only played 20 minutes a game at Northern Illinois. You have to wonder if he is ready for the step up in class. Given how much of their rebounding and rim protection the Lions lost, they could really use production in those areas from Niederhäuser.
Niederhäuser is from Switzerland. He may be the first Swiss player to play for a Power 5 college team.
Freddie Dilione V was a highly-rated recruit, but he didn't get a ton of playing time on a loaded, veteran roster at Tennessee. His poor three-point shooting may have been a factor.
CONCLUSION
In his first season in State College, Coach Rhoades brought in 9 transfers. This season he has brought in 8 new players. Maybe next season he will bring in 7.
The Nittany Lions have a decent roster with five returning seniors and four 4-star players. However, most of the four-star players are guys who didn't produce much at big-time schools and transferred to Penn State. They return a pretty good nucleus, but the incoming freshmen and transfers aren't all that impressive.
I think the returning core is good enough to provide 5 quality starters. It is the depth that is the issue. They will need a newcomer to play center, and they will need to find some quality subs. If they find the depth, they will be a pretty good team.
When you return 5 guys who started, it seems reasonable to think they will improve, just with a year of maturity and experience. I think they will improve on their 9th-place finish from last season, but I don't see them as a tournament team. They have maturity and experience, but I question the depth . Maybe they improve to 7th.
Everyone else is far more pessimistic about Penn State.
Torvick projects Penn State as the #77 team in the country and the #18 team in the Big Ten with a 16-15 record and 8-12 in conference.
247 picks the Nittany Lions to finish 16th.
Vrooman picks them to finish dead last. He writes:
18. Penn State Nittany Lions
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +11.02 (+10.49 last year)
Coaching Info: Mike Rhoades -6.67 (75th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’1 G Ace Baldwin (14.2 pts, 6.0 ast), 6’8 F Puff Johnson (7.3 pts, 3.1 reb), 6’5 G D’Marco Dunn (6.8 pts, 36.6% 3pt), 6’8 F Zach Hicks (8.4 pts, 3.9 reb), 6’6 G Nick Kern (8.7 pts, 3.9 reb)
Mike Rhoades came over as head coach before last season with Penn State coming off their first NCAA tournament appearance in 11 years. That was a little misleading since Penn State was projected to be a #6 seed in 2020 before the tournament was cancelled amid the pandemic. They also won the NIT in 2018 after failing to earn an at large bid thanks to a sub-300 non-conference strength of schedule. Still, it’s safe to say that PSU basketball has been one of the bottom feeders in the Big Ten over the last decade.
It was a complete rebuild for Rhoades as Penn State was 353rd in the country in minutes continuity last year. Eight transfers joined the team including a pair of starters that Rhoades brought with him from VCU. This season will be much more about internal development as Penn State brings back 5 of their top 7 scorers and should be one of the national leaders in continuity.
The star will be Ace Baldwin who won B1G Defensive Player of the Year and finished 3rd in the B1G in assists per game but only made 38% of his shots from the field. There are a slew of productive 6’6 to 6’8 forwards but the center spot is a bit of an unknown. Gone is Qudus Wahab who led the team in rebounds and blocks and there’s not a clear replacement. Incoming freshman (and former O’Dea star) Miles Goodman will be one of only two players on the roster taller than 6’8.
There’s a good shot that my model is underestimating Penn State. My model expected too much of last year’s squad given it was almost all transfers and that hurt Rhoades’ coaching grade for this year when he’s instead bringing everyone back. I’d bet the over on Penn State given what my model spit out but a tournament berth is still a major stretch even so.