Post by mhbruin on Mar 26, 2024 9:16:06 GMT -8
CHANGES
Added Loyola Marymount Guard Chance Stevens and redshirt Braden Pierce.
6/18 Added Jayhlon Young, transfer from Memphis.
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Next, we look the Marylands Terrapins. They finished tied for 12th in the 14-team league.
They are coached by Kevin Willard, who has just finished his second season in College Park. In 17 years as a head coach, he has never won more than 50% of his conference games, so it may not be surprising that he as only won 45% of his B1G games. He made the NCAA tournament in his first season with the Terps and won a tournament game, but then dropped off a lot in his second season.
Last season, Maryland was very good at defense at #14 in defensive efficiency, but their offense was bad. At a miserable 29%, they were #347 in three-point shooting. Their two-point shooting at #247 was only a bit better.
GRADUATING
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes |
| Jahmir Young | 32 | 32 | 35 | 20 | 3.9 | 4.2 | |
| Donta Scott | 33 | 32 | 30 | 11 | 4.7 | 1.1 | |
| . |
Jahmir Young was their best player, leading the team in minutes, points, assists, and steals. Any time you lose a 20-point scorer, that's a big loss. He was first-team All-Big-Ten.
However, Jahmir Young was one of those "high-volume, low-percentage" shooters. He only shot 40% from the floor and 32% on threes.
Scott was their third-leading scorer and second-best three-point shooter at a rousing 34%.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Can Return? |
| - None - | |||||||
TRANSFERRING OUT
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes | Destination |
| Noah Batchelor | 26 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | Buffalo | |
| Caelum Swanton-Rodger | 31 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 1.7 | 0.1 | ||
| Jahnathan Lamothe G | 16 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | North Carolina A&T | |
| Jamie Kaiser, Jr. | 33 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 2.0 | 0.2 | Butler | |
| Mady Traoré | 12 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | ||
The Terps lose quite a few players to the portal, but Kaiser seems to be the only one who played a decent amount. Kaiser was more than a roll player.
RETURNING
| STAT | RETURNING |
| Starts | 55% |
| Minutes | 49% |
| Points | 43% |
| 3-Pointers Made | 24% |
| Rebounds | 51% |
| Assists | 48% |
| Steals | 51% |
| Blocks | 69% |
In an era of massive roster turnover, Maryland is an exception. They return around half of their production in most areas. They return a lot of shot blocking. One exception is three-point shooting, where they only return 24% of their made shots. They didn't make a lot of threes and most of those who did are gone.
Maryland doesn't return a lot of players, but they do start with a core of three returning starters, all of whom were 4-star recruits. Long gives them a bit of badly-needed three-point shooting, although 35% isn't that great. Also he wasn't a volume shooter making only 22 of them in 30 games.
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG% | 3Pt% | A/TO | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Julian Reese F | 6-9 230 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 14 | 9.5 | 1.3 | 56% | -- | 0.5 | Sr | 4 | 60 |
| DeShawn Harris-Smith G | 6-5 215 | 33 | 30 | 30 | 7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 37% | 20% | 1.3 | So | 4 | 32 |
| Jordan Geronimo F | 6-6 225 | 31 | 26 | 23 | 5 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 42% | 17% | 0.5 | Sr 5 | 4 | 105 |
| Jahari Long G | 6-5 200 | 30 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 42% | 35% | 1.5 | Sr 5 | 3 | 252 |
| Chance Stephens G | 6-3 185 | 0 | So | Unranked | |||||||||
| Braden Pierce C | 7-0 230 | 0 | Fr | Unranked |
Maryland doesn't return a lot of players, but they do start with a core of three returning starters, all of whom were 4-star recruits. Long gives them a bit of badly-needed three-point shooting, although 35% isn't that great. Also he wasn't a volume shooter making only 22 of them in 30 games.
Julian Reese is the best of the returning guys. He led the team in rebounds, steal, and blocks, and was #3 in scoring. At 6-9, he was #32 in the country in rebounds per game.
DeShawn Harris-Smith was voted to the Big Ten All-Freshman Team. He needs to get his shooting percentages up to really help.
Chance Stephens, who transferred in from Loyola Marymount before the season did not play. Also freshman Braden Pierce was a redshirt.
RECRUITS
(#42 class, #8 in BiG)
| Player | Size | Position | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Offers |
| Derik Queen | 6-10 240 | C | 5 | 12 | Houstan, Indiana, Kansas |
| Malachi Palmer | 6-5 185 | CG | 3 | 150 | Arizona St, Creighton, DePaul |
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A big reason some people rate Maryland as a Top 25 tean is five-star center Derik Queen, who was name co-MVP at the McDonald’s All-American game. He finished that game with game-highs in points (23), rebounds (eight), assists (five) and steals (three) to go along with two blocks. He looks like a potential star.
TRANSFERRING IN
| SOURCE | NATIONAL CLASS RANK | BIG TEN CLASS RANK |
| 247 | 33 | 9 |
| Evan Miya* | 29 | 5 |
(*Evan Miya ranks net transfers, counting both how much the team lost and gained through the portal.)
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG % | 3-Pt % | A/TO | From | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | 247 Transfer Rank |
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie | 6-0 175 | 25 | 24 | 31 | 17 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 56% | 39% | 1.7 | Belmont | Jr | Unranked | 50 | |
| Rodney Rice | 6-4 195 | 8 | 0 | 20 | 7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 32% | 33% | 1.2 | Virginia Tech | So | 4 | 104 | 161 |
| Selton Miguel | 6-4 210 | 33 | 29 | 22 | 15 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 41% | 39% | 1.2 | South Florida | Sr 5 | 3 | 168 | 220 |
| Tafara Gapare | 6-9 206 | 29 | 15 | 18 | 5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 35% | 17% | 0.9 | Georgia Tech | Jr | 4 | 123 | 355 |
| Jayhlon Young PG | 6-2 175 | 27 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 43% | 31% | 1.0 | Memphis | Sr | Unranked | Unranked |
Ja'Kobi Gillespie seems to be the highlight of this transfer class. At 56% he has a very high shooting percentage for a 6-foot guard.
Rodney Rice was injured a lot at VT and sat out most of the 2023-24 season. If he can stay healthy, he might contribute, but he didn't shoot very well.
Selton Miguel played 2 years at Kansas State and then transferred to South Florida. He is the reigning American Athletic Conference’s Most Improved Player and Sixth Man of the Year.
Tafara Gapare played a year at UMass, a year at Georgia Tech, and now is on to his third school. He started half his games at Georgia Tech, but he was a terrible shooter. I don't know why Willard wanted him.
Gillespie and Miguel should provide needed 3-point shooting. Gapare sure won't.
Jayhlon Young was a late addition to the the transfer class. It gives the Terps another body, but Jayhlon didn't do all that much at Memphis. I wouldn't expect much next season.
CONCLUSION
Maryland's problem last season was shooting and particularly three-point shooting. Now their lose three of their four best three-point shooters. Their best returning shooters shoot 35% and 20%.
They seem to have tried to address this issue in the portal. Incoming transfer Ja'Kobi Gillespie was a 39% shooter in the Ohio Valley Conference, and Selton Miguel shot 39%, in the AAC.
If Derik Queen turns into a force at the post, this may open up some outside shots.
Maryland has a pretty good roster going into the season. They return experience. They have talent with a 5-star player and five 4-star players. Incoming transfer Gillespie might give them more outside scoring punch. If Derik Queen has a breakout freshman season, the Terrapins could be one of the best teams in the B1G.
If I have doubts, it is about Kevin Willard. In 12 seasons at Seton Hall, he had a 48% conference record. In two seasons in College Park he has averaged 45% wins in conference.
I suspect the turtles will end up in the top half of the league, and perhaps as high as 5th. That is higher than the other prognosticators.
Torvick projects Maryland as #45 in the country and #12 in the B1G.
247 predicts Maryland finishing 8th in the Big Ten.
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Vrooman picks them 14th
14. Maryland Terrapins
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +13.82 (+12.51 last year)
Coaching Info: Kevin Willard +0.11 (44th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’9 F Julian Reese (13.7 pts, 9.5 reb), 6’5 G Selton Miguel (South Florida- 14.7 pts, 3.2 reb), 6’5 G DeShawn Harris-Smith (7.3 pts, 4.3 reb), 6’10 C Derik Queen (5* Freshman), 6’1 G Ja’Kobi Gillespie (Belmont- 17.2 pts, 4.2 ast)
My model has Kevin Willard as almost an exactly average high major coach and that seems justified. Over the past 11 seasons he has finished below .500 only one time and that was last season when the Terrapins fell to 16-17 (7-13). Between Maryland and Seton Hall he has been to the NCAA tournament 6 of the past 9 seasons but has only once been better than a #8 seed. To be fair, Willard was projected to be a #3 seed entering the Big East tournament in 2020 when it was cancelled. But you generally know what your ceiling and floor are if Willard is your coach.
Last season was a bit of a disaster as it was the Jahmir Young show and that didn’t result in wins. Young averaged 20.4 points and 4.2 assists per game but wasn’t efficient enough to justify such high usage rates (top-35 nationally). Now with Young gone, Maryland returns their 2nd and 3rd leading scorer while also adding a pair of mid-major guards who shot 38%+ from three-point range. They’re also bringing in a 5-star freshman center in Derik Queen. The makings are there for a really good starting lineup but the depth behind that group is still suspect.