Post by mhbruin on Mar 14, 2024 18:48:29 GMT -8
DISCLAIMER
In past seasons, when I have done roster previews, I have watched all the teams. However, I did not watch a lot of Big Ten basketball last season. I have seen Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, and a little of Northwestern. I saw Maryland and Ohio State when we played them. Otherwise, I have no direct knowledge.
However, I am not going to let my ignorance get in the way of writing something. After all, this is the internet. If we got rid of all the ignorant posting, it would be a lot quieter place.
So try to forgive all the things I am going to get wrong, and feel free to comment if you know stuff I don't know.
CHANGES
4/29 - Vladislav Goldin transfers in from Florida Atlantic.
5/9 - George Washington transfers to Richmond.
5/21 - Christian Anderson commits to Texas Tech after decommitting from Michigan.
5/20 - Nimari Burnett withdraws from the draft. I didn't realize he has declared.
====================
First we look at the last place Michigan Wolverines. They were picked to finish 11th and finished 14th.
In his second season Juwan Howard won the B1G and took his team to the Elite 8, where they lost to the Bruins. Since then they have finished 7th, 5th, and 14th. As a result Howard was fired, and Dusty May is taking over. Dusty was the hottest young coach at the start of the carousel, and the Wolverines got his scent and hunted him down. (I'd throw in an 'X-Men" reference, but I haven't watched the films.)
GRADUATING
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
Terrance Williams withdrew from the draft and transferred to USC.
TRANSFERRING OUT
That's three full-time starters in the portal.
Dug McDaniel led the Wolverines in points, assists, and steals. He was the #57 transfer in the portal.
George Washington III was in the portal, then returning to the tea, and finally transferred to Richmond. It took Abraham Lincoln 4 years to get to Richmond. Washington did it in one year.
RETURNING
Here is what Michigan returns:
Nimari Burnett is the only returning starter. He was second on the team in scoring and rebounding.
If this George Washington were the father of our country, it would be a good thing for him that he was a general, because he can't shoot. He put his name in the transfer portal, but then chose to withdraw. Then he ended up transferring to Richmond. Like the Father of our Country, he knows the value of a strategic retreat.
I don't believe that George really stood up in a team meeting at Michigan and said:
"We are outgunned
Outmanned
Outnumbered
Outplanned
We gotta make an all out stand"
Jackson Selvala was a student manager for two years before being invited to join the roster. He is a walkon.
RECRUITS
(#55 class, #12 in B1G)
Michigan lost of couple of 4-star recruits when Juwan Howard was fired.
Khani Rooths decommited from Michigan and is going to Louisville.
Christian Anderson does not wear red shoes or have a relationship with a little mermaid. After decommitting from Michigan, he chose Texas Tech.
Durral Brooks was signed before Dusty May got to Michigan.
Justin Pippen is the son of Scotty and played high-shool ball for Sierra Canyon.
Cason originally commmited to FAU, but then decommitted and followed May was to Michigan.
TRANSFERRING IN
247: #9 class, #3 in B1G
Miya: #5 class, #1 in B1G*
(*Evan Miya ranks net transfers, counting both how much the team lost and gained through the portal.)
Over a three-day period, Coach May got commitments from five players in the portal. They went from no transfer class to the #5 class in the country. With Goldin, they moved up to #3.
Vladislav Goldin was the starting center for Dusty May at Florida Atlantic. You might question his great numbers, because he played in the AAC. During FAU's run to the Final Four, he averaged 7 points on 50% shooting with one block per game. However, he still got over 7 boards per game.
This year he played two games against B1G teams against Illinois and Northwestern, who wereboth in the tournament. In those two games he averaged 21 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks. He looks like he can play in the B1G.
Roddy Gayle gives them a full-time starter from another B1G team. Plus there is also the added pleasure of stealing a player from their arch rival. He was the third-leading scorer, third in rebounds, and second in assists for the Buckeyes.
Just about everyone one was after Yale Center Danny Wolf., who was All-Ivy-League. Danny Wolfe was #25 in the country in rebounds per game last season.
Rubin Jones transfers from the Mean Green to the Maize and Blue. His North Texas team beat Dusty May's FAU team twice during the last season. He seems to be a very good shooter.
Michigan loses a Tray and gains a Tre. I think it is an improvement. I don't know how Tre Donaldson was the #281 player in the country coming out of high school and was still considered a 4-star. You would have to ask 247. However, he was also offered by Alabama and Boston College. He seems to be a good shooter and his A/TO ratio is very good.
You can find more info about the transfers here.
CONCLUSION
When Dusty May arrived in Ann Arbor he had 4 scholarship players with one returning starter. Since then he has added 9 players, 6 of them from the portal. It was quite a flurry of activity.
"It started with Justin Pippen, son of Scottie Pippen, committing to the maize and blue on Friday. North Texas shooting guard Rubin Jones quickly followed. On Saturday, prized Yale center Danny Wolf pledged to the Wolverines and on Sunday, Auburn point guard Tre Donaldson joined the mix. Former Ohio State guard Roddy Gayle Jr. and Alabama forward Sam Walters committed on Monday."
Tuesday brought a commitment from Lorenzo Cason. That makes 7 new players in 5 days.
As I count the roster, all 13 scholarships are filled, but a story quotes Coach May as saying he still has a ride and wants Goldin.
Projecting results in the age of the portal is a fool's errand. Michigan will have at least 7 new players, only three of whom have proven they can play at this level.
They have a coach with a one-season resume. He was a head coach for five seasons, but his reputation is based on one run to the Final Four.
Unknown players. Unknown team chemistry. Unknown coach. This is a team with more question marks than this guy's costume.
Michigan fans can have happy dreams until the season starts. Then we will see.
Torvick projects the Wolverines as the #20 team in the country and the #6 team in the B1G. He projects a record of 19-12 and 11-9 in the B1G.
247 picks Michigan to finish 5th.
============================
Vrooman picks them to finish 11th
11. Michigan Wolverines
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +16.70 (+3.9 last year)
Coaching Info: Dusty May +0.0 (t-45th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’4 G Roddy Gayle Jr. (Ohio St- 13.5 pts, 4.6 reb), 7’1 C Vlad Goldin (Florida Atlantic- 15.7 pts, 6.9 reb), 6’4 G Nimari Burnett (9.6 pts, 4.1 reb), 6’8 F Will Tschetter (6.8 pts, 51.9% 3pt), 6’3 G Tre Donaldson (Auburn- 6.7 pts, 3.2 ast)
There are some parallels that can be made between Michigan under Juwan Howard and a cross between Mike Hopkins and Jimmy Lake. Things started off great for Michigan under Howard as in year 2 they earned a #1 seed and made it to the Elite 8. That was also the apex as the next season they squeaked into the tourney as an #11 seed but pulled some upsets to make the Sweet 16. Then they were mediocre and finally last year the bottom fell out and they were outright terrible. And oh yeah, in the middle of it all Howard struck an opposing coach in a handshake line (there’s your Lake tie-in) and had heart surgery (no comp to a recent UW coach there).
Now it’s the Dusty May era who took FAU to back-to-back tournaments including a Final Four appearance. He only brought one of his star players that entered the portal with him but relied heavily on the portal to instantly reshape the roster. Only 2 of the 8 players to average at least 5 points per game last year for Michigan return and no one who scored in double digits is back.
Instead, May brought in 6 major transfer pieces including a starting guard from rival Ohio State. Those transfers plus returners Burnett and Tschetter mean that the top-8 for Michigan looks to be extremely solid. There probably isn’t a top-5 player in the conference there but everyone in that group can be at least a good backup for a tournament-level team. Spots 9-12 on the roster though are all question marks so if the Wolverines take an injury or two then they could be in trouble.
===================================
DUSTY MAY, MICHIGAN
Profile: One of the hotter names in coaching-carousel world the past two seasons, May jumps to Michigan after taking Florida Atlantic to a Final Four last season, then having it in the top 25 much of this season before a first-round NCAA Tournament loss to Northwestern. May, 47, has only been a head coach for five seasons, so the sustainability/one-hit-wonder question will be there, as it would for any coach at this stage of their career jumping to a premiere job.
Style of Play: May’s recent teams at FAU were very good offensively and Michigan’s additions from the transfer wire have been largely been based on offensive skill. This looks much more like the John Beilein model at Michigan than not.
Recruiting Profile: Michigan has to load up on transfers right now, and presumably will keep in that market, along with recruiting the best players in the Midwest and nationally. Now, it’s important to note that systematic/commitment issues were part of Juwan Howard’s undoing. Terrence Shannon Jr. and Caleb Love were both denied admission as transfers and Hunter Dickinson left over NIL money, which one would think would never happen at a place like Michigan.
In past seasons, when I have done roster previews, I have watched all the teams. However, I did not watch a lot of Big Ten basketball last season. I have seen Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, and a little of Northwestern. I saw Maryland and Ohio State when we played them. Otherwise, I have no direct knowledge.
However, I am not going to let my ignorance get in the way of writing something. After all, this is the internet. If we got rid of all the ignorant posting, it would be a lot quieter place.
So try to forgive all the things I am going to get wrong, and feel free to comment if you know stuff I don't know.
CHANGES
4/29 - Vladislav Goldin transfers in from Florida Atlantic.
5/9 - George Washington transfers to Richmond.
5/21 - Christian Anderson commits to Texas Tech after decommitting from Michigan.
5/20 - Nimari Burnett withdraws from the draft. I didn't realize he has declared.
====================
First we look at the last place Michigan Wolverines. They were picked to finish 11th and finished 14th.
In his second season Juwan Howard won the B1G and took his team to the Elite 8, where they lost to the Bruins. Since then they have finished 7th, 5th, and 14th. As a result Howard was fired, and Dusty May is taking over. Dusty was the hottest young coach at the start of the carousel, and the Wolverines got his scent and hunted him down. (I'd throw in an 'X-Men" reference, but I haven't watched the films.)
GRADUATING
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes |
| Olivier Nkamhoua | 26 | 26 | 33 | 15 | 7 | 2.7 | Sr5 Transfer from Tennessee where he was 2 year starter |
| Jaelin Llewellyn | 20 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Tray Jackson | 28 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | |
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Can Return? |
| Terrance Williams | 31 | 31 | 33 | 12 | 4.5 | 1.5 | Yes, but also in portal |
| . |
Terrance Williams withdrew from the draft and transferred to USC.
TRANSFERRING OUT
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes | Destination |
| Dug McDaniel | 26 | 26 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 4.7 | Kansas State | |
| George Washington III G | 22 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | 4-star | Richmond |
| Youssef Khayat | 17 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0.1 | Bowling Green | |
| Tarris Reed, Jr. | 32 | 31 | 27 | 9 | 7 | 0.6 | 4-star | UConn |
| Terrance Williams | 31 | 31 | 33 | 12 | 4.5 | 1.5 | Third leading scorer. | USC |
| . |
That's three full-time starters in the portal.
Dug McDaniel led the Wolverines in points, assists, and steals. He was the #57 transfer in the portal.
George Washington III was in the portal, then returning to the tea, and finally transferred to Richmond. It took Abraham Lincoln 4 years to get to Richmond. Washington did it in one year.
RETURNING
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG% | 3Pt% | A/TO | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Nimari Burnett | 32 | 32 | 31 | 10 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 40% | 35% | 1.4 | Sr | 4 | 34 |
| Will Tschetter | 31 | 6 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 58% | 52% | 0.8 | Jr | 3 | 144 |
| Jace Howard | 10 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0.4 | 30% | 27% | 0.8 | Sr | 3 | 389 |
| Cooper Smith | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 67% | 33% | 0.0 | Sr | Unranked | Walkon |
| Jackson Selvala | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 25% | 2.0 | Sr 5 | Unranked | Walkon | |
Here is what Michigan returns:
| STAT | RETURNING |
| Starts | 24% |
| Minutes | 27% |
| Points | 24% |
| 3-Pointers Made | 33% |
| Rebounds | 20% |
| Assists | 26% |
| Steals | 29% |
| Blocks | 15% |
Nimari Burnett is the only returning starter. He was second on the team in scoring and rebounding.
If this George Washington were the father of our country, it would be a good thing for him that he was a general, because he can't shoot. He put his name in the transfer portal, but then chose to withdraw. Then he ended up transferring to Richmond. Like the Father of our Country, he knows the value of a strategic retreat.
I don't believe that George really stood up in a team meeting at Michigan and said:
"We are outgunned
Outmanned
Outnumbered
Outplanned
We gotta make an all out stand"
Jackson Selvala was a student manager for two years before being invited to join the roster. He is a walkon.
RECRUITS
(#55 class, #12 in B1G)
| Player | Size | Position | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Offers |
| Durral Brooks | 6-2 180 | PG | 3 | 199 | Michigan St, Butler, Dayton |
| Justin Pippen | 6-3 180 | CG | 4 | 100 | Georgia Tech, Stanford, Texas A&M |
| Lorenzo Cason | 6-2 190 | CG | Unranked | Florida, Florida Atlantic, Dusquene |
Michigan lost of couple of 4-star recruits when Juwan Howard was fired.
Khani Rooths decommited from Michigan and is going to Louisville.
Christian Anderson does not wear red shoes or have a relationship with a little mermaid. After decommitting from Michigan, he chose Texas Tech.
Durral Brooks was signed before Dusty May got to Michigan.
Justin Pippen is the son of Scotty and played high-shool ball for Sierra Canyon.
Cason originally commmited to FAU, but then decommitted and followed May was to Michigan.
TRANSFERRING IN
247: #9 class, #3 in B1G
Miya: #5 class, #1 in B1G*
(*Evan Miya ranks net transfers, counting both how much the team lost and gained through the portal.)
Over a three-day period, Coach May got commitments from five players in the portal. They went from no transfer class to the #5 class in the country. With Goldin, they moved up to #3.
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG % | 3-Pt % | A/TO | From | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Transfer Rank |
| Rubin Jones | 6-4 180 | 23 | 23 | 30 | 12 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 38% | 41% | 1.7 | North Texas | Sr 5 | Unranked | 281 | |
| Danny Wolf | 7-0 250 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 14 | 9.7 | 2.1 | 47% | 35% | 1.0 | Yale | Jr | Unranked | 27 | |
| Tre Donaldson | 6-3 200 | 35 | 10 | 19 | 7 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 47% | 41% | 2.4 | Auburn | Jr | 4 | 281 | 91 |
| Sam Walters | 6-8 180 | 37 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 43% | 39% | 0.9 | Alabama | So | 4 | 57 | 97 |
| Roddy Gayle | 6-4 210 | 38 | 35 | 31 | 14 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 45% | 28% | 1.3 | Ohio State | Jr | 4 | 49 | 61 |
| Vladislav Goldin | 7-1 240 | 34 | 34 | 25 | 16 | 6.9 | 0.7 | 67% | --- | 0.5 | Florida Atlantic | Sr | 3 | 211 | 45 |
Vladislav Goldin was the starting center for Dusty May at Florida Atlantic. You might question his great numbers, because he played in the AAC. During FAU's run to the Final Four, he averaged 7 points on 50% shooting with one block per game. However, he still got over 7 boards per game.
This year he played two games against B1G teams against Illinois and Northwestern, who wereboth in the tournament. In those two games he averaged 21 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks. He looks like he can play in the B1G.
Roddy Gayle gives them a full-time starter from another B1G team. Plus there is also the added pleasure of stealing a player from their arch rival. He was the third-leading scorer, third in rebounds, and second in assists for the Buckeyes.
Just about everyone one was after Yale Center Danny Wolf., who was All-Ivy-League. Danny Wolfe was #25 in the country in rebounds per game last season.
Rubin Jones transfers from the Mean Green to the Maize and Blue. His North Texas team beat Dusty May's FAU team twice during the last season. He seems to be a very good shooter.
Michigan loses a Tray and gains a Tre. I think it is an improvement. I don't know how Tre Donaldson was the #281 player in the country coming out of high school and was still considered a 4-star. You would have to ask 247. However, he was also offered by Alabama and Boston College. He seems to be a good shooter and his A/TO ratio is very good.
You can find more info about the transfers here.
CONCLUSION
When Dusty May arrived in Ann Arbor he had 4 scholarship players with one returning starter. Since then he has added 9 players, 6 of them from the portal. It was quite a flurry of activity.
"It started with Justin Pippen, son of Scottie Pippen, committing to the maize and blue on Friday. North Texas shooting guard Rubin Jones quickly followed. On Saturday, prized Yale center Danny Wolf pledged to the Wolverines and on Sunday, Auburn point guard Tre Donaldson joined the mix. Former Ohio State guard Roddy Gayle Jr. and Alabama forward Sam Walters committed on Monday."
Tuesday brought a commitment from Lorenzo Cason. That makes 7 new players in 5 days.
As I count the roster, all 13 scholarships are filled, but a story quotes Coach May as saying he still has a ride and wants Goldin.
Projecting results in the age of the portal is a fool's errand. Michigan will have at least 7 new players, only three of whom have proven they can play at this level.
They have a coach with a one-season resume. He was a head coach for five seasons, but his reputation is based on one run to the Final Four.
Unknown players. Unknown team chemistry. Unknown coach. This is a team with more question marks than this guy's costume.
Michigan fans can have happy dreams until the season starts. Then we will see.
Torvick projects the Wolverines as the #20 team in the country and the #6 team in the B1G. He projects a record of 19-12 and 11-9 in the B1G.
247 picks Michigan to finish 5th.
============================
Vrooman picks them to finish 11th
11. Michigan Wolverines
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +16.70 (+3.9 last year)
Coaching Info: Dusty May +0.0 (t-45th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’4 G Roddy Gayle Jr. (Ohio St- 13.5 pts, 4.6 reb), 7’1 C Vlad Goldin (Florida Atlantic- 15.7 pts, 6.9 reb), 6’4 G Nimari Burnett (9.6 pts, 4.1 reb), 6’8 F Will Tschetter (6.8 pts, 51.9% 3pt), 6’3 G Tre Donaldson (Auburn- 6.7 pts, 3.2 ast)
There are some parallels that can be made between Michigan under Juwan Howard and a cross between Mike Hopkins and Jimmy Lake. Things started off great for Michigan under Howard as in year 2 they earned a #1 seed and made it to the Elite 8. That was also the apex as the next season they squeaked into the tourney as an #11 seed but pulled some upsets to make the Sweet 16. Then they were mediocre and finally last year the bottom fell out and they were outright terrible. And oh yeah, in the middle of it all Howard struck an opposing coach in a handshake line (there’s your Lake tie-in) and had heart surgery (no comp to a recent UW coach there).
Now it’s the Dusty May era who took FAU to back-to-back tournaments including a Final Four appearance. He only brought one of his star players that entered the portal with him but relied heavily on the portal to instantly reshape the roster. Only 2 of the 8 players to average at least 5 points per game last year for Michigan return and no one who scored in double digits is back.
Instead, May brought in 6 major transfer pieces including a starting guard from rival Ohio State. Those transfers plus returners Burnett and Tschetter mean that the top-8 for Michigan looks to be extremely solid. There probably isn’t a top-5 player in the conference there but everyone in that group can be at least a good backup for a tournament-level team. Spots 9-12 on the roster though are all question marks so if the Wolverines take an injury or two then they could be in trouble.
===================================
DUSTY MAY, MICHIGAN
Profile: One of the hotter names in coaching-carousel world the past two seasons, May jumps to Michigan after taking Florida Atlantic to a Final Four last season, then having it in the top 25 much of this season before a first-round NCAA Tournament loss to Northwestern. May, 47, has only been a head coach for five seasons, so the sustainability/one-hit-wonder question will be there, as it would for any coach at this stage of their career jumping to a premiere job.
Style of Play: May’s recent teams at FAU were very good offensively and Michigan’s additions from the transfer wire have been largely been based on offensive skill. This looks much more like the John Beilein model at Michigan than not.
Recruiting Profile: Michigan has to load up on transfers right now, and presumably will keep in that market, along with recruiting the best players in the Midwest and nationally. Now, it’s important to note that systematic/commitment issues were part of Juwan Howard’s undoing. Terrence Shannon Jr. and Caleb Love were both denied admission as transfers and Hunter Dickinson left over NIL money, which one would think would never happen at a place like Michigan.