Oregon State vs. UCLA Preview

We now face #12 seed Oregon State as a #5 seed.  In the NCAA tournament, a #12 seed upsetting a #5 seed is common.  However, this isn't true for the Pac-12 tournament.  There have been 12 Pac-12 tournaments.  The #12 seed has won once.

This is likely to be our last game against Oregon State for the foreseeable future.  Good luck Beavs in the WCC.

The Beavers are the worst team in the Pac-12.  We beat them twice.  The only other team we beat twice this year was Arizona State.

OSU is a bad team.  However, as Arizona found out, bad teams can be dangerous.  Especially when they shoot 60% from the arc.

METRICS


At Oregon State we won by 7, 69-62.  At home we won by 8, 71-63.

The computers mostly prediction a slightly lower-scoring game and a closer game in Las Vegas.


Oregon State has the third worst KenPom rating of any power 6 team.  They are rated higher than only Vanderbilt and Louisville.

RECORDS


Oregon State hasn't won a Quad 1 game ... EXCEPT for a win at the buzzer over Arizona.  

In most of their Quad 1 losses, they have lost badly.  They lost by 33, 27, 21, 16, and 14.

Their Quad 2 wins were over Utah, Appalachian State, and at Stanford.  That was their only win away from Gill Coliseum.

You have to give the Beavers credit.  They’re undefeated in Quad 4 games.  Last season they lost two of them.  That's improvement.

However, they didn't exactly run through their Quad 4 schdule. Oregon State needed double overtime to beat both #254 Troy and #301 Cal Poly at home. App State (who are actually pretty good) also took them to OT.  They beat #279 UTSA by 1 point.  While "the cardiac Beavers" doesn't have a good ring to it, they have had a lot of close wins.

After losing 7 games in a row, the Beavers finished on a bit of a run going 2-2 in their last four games.  
        

The Beavers aren't exactly road warriors.   We haven't won a neutral-court game, either.

However, we have shown far more ability to win away from home than they have.  

UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON STATE'S DEFENSE


The Beavers will mix defense with man and several zones.  They will press occasionally, and they have several different presses.

OSU isn't good at anything on defense and they are bad at some things.  They are OK at defending the three.  They are bad at defending the two.  We should do better against the Beavers inside the arc than we did against the Sun Devils.

They are pretty bad at protecting their defensive board.  

On offense, we are good at one thing.  We don't get a lot of shots blocked.  In part, this because our offense is a lot of Bona dunking and shooting three-point shots.

We are terrible at one thing:  two-point shooting.  So this is weakness on weakness.  Our bad two-point shooting, and their bad two-point defense.  In our two meetings we shot 42% on two-point shots.  That's worse than our season average.  

On the other hand, we shot 42% on three-pointers in our two games.  It seems like Wayne Tinkle packed the lane and challenged us to beat them from the outside.   We rose to the challenge.

Can we do it a third time?

Advantage: Even.  

UCLA'S DEFENSE VS OREGON STATE 'S OFFENSE

Our offense has imporved as bit as the season has worn on.  Our defense isn't as good as it was earlier.


Oregon State doesn't do anything well on offense.  They are poor at shooting, mediocre at offensive rebounding, and they turn the ball over quite a bit.

And we aren't a great matchup for them.  They don't shoot a ton of threes, and we defend the two better than we defend the three.  They turn the ball over quite a bit, and we generate quite a few turnovers.  

We won our first two meetings because we got more shots than they did.  We had 121 shots to their 97.  It wasn't that we were getting shots, while they were parading to the free throw line.  They had 28 free throws in the two games to our 26.

We got more shots because we had 12 more rebounds and 9 fewer turnovers.  Getting more shots than our opponent is usually a winning formula for us

Advantage:UCLA

OTHER FACTORS


Neither team is great in any of these categories, but we should have an edge on the boards.  In our first meeting we outrebounded them by 1, but in the second meeting our edge was 11 boards. 

We both play a very slow tempo.  This could be a contest to see who can play slower.  The great turtle race.  This could be a game where first team to 60 wins.  

They are young.  We are younger.

They have a lot of continuity from last season.  Their top 10 scorers all played for the Beavers last season.  We don't much have much continuity.

Advantage:  UCLA.  A small edge based on rebounding.  

PLAYERS

The Beavers change their starting lineup, but lately they have started 3 sophomores and 2 seniors.  All of them were on the team last season.  They were a bad team last season, but as freshmen turn into sophomores, they are better.  Not good.  Better.  They return their top six scorers and 10 of their top 11 scorers. They also return their top six in minutes played and 9 of their top 10 rebounders.  Other than Rodrigue Andela, they return the same team that went 11-21 last season, and they are 13-18.  All that experience got them two more wins.  

They don't have a 4-star or 5-star player on the roster.  Wayne Tinkle does a nice job of scouting out players that aren't in big demand, but it's hard for too many of them to turn into major college talent.  He has found two diamonds in the rough who are good players, Jordan Pope and Tyler Bilodeau.  After that, they have a bunch of glue guys.  The Oregon State Elmers.


* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.

Jordan Pope is the clear star of the team. He shoots the ball well from the outside, and he is a good ball-handler. He has had five 25-point games this season and a season high of 31. He has scored in double figures in 30 of 31 games.   He has scored over 20 in 4 of their last 5 games.  He was 2nd team All-Pac-12 preseason.  

Pope is a three-level scorer who can create his own shot.  He has taken 117 more shots than anyone else on the team.  He's not a selfish player.  He also leads the team in assists.  He is just one of the few good shooters on the team. 

Tyler Bilodeau had a decent freshman season last year and has turned into a very good PF.  He is crafty anwhere near the basket and a good rebounder.  He has had six 20-point games, and he's scored in double figures 25 times.  He's definitely more dangerous near the basket than from the three-point line.  At this point he is better than either Brandon Williams or Berke.

Dexter Akanno has never been much of a shooter. For his career he is a 36% / 29% shooter, although he has been a bit better from the arc this year. He will shoot a lot and get into double figure scoring in most games.  He scored 22 points against us earlier in our first meeting, with 4 three-pointers.  Both of them are season highs for Dexter.  22 points is a career high.  Don't expect a repeat performance in Vegas.  

Michael Rataj shot 37% from the arc last season. This season he is shooting 29%.  He's more likely to score in single digits than in double figures.

Ibekwe can score near the basket and block shots.  He also turns the ball over quite a bit.

Walk-on freshman Josiah Lake looks like a star in the making. He is the best shooter on the team, he leads the team in assists per 40 minutes and his 3.2 A/TO ratio is outstanding. He must be a good defender. He leads the team in steals, despite only playing 15 minutes per game. He is taking fewer than 2 shots per game.  His minutes have been going down.  Why?  Beats me!  Ask Wayne Tinkle. 

Christian Wright is a crappy shooter.  Over half of his shots are threes.

Chol Mariel has started the last six games, but he doesn't play starter minutes.  He is the best rebounder and shot blocker on the team.  However, he isn't much of an offensive threat.  He has scored in double figures once all season. At 7-2, he is 4 of 9 from the arc.  

CONCLUSION

The Beavers are a bad team.  They are the worst team in the Pac-12.  They are likely the least talented team in the Pac-12.  They are terrible away from home.

This should be a no-brainer win, right?  Yet, there is that win over Arizona.  Sure, it was at home, but still it's a win over Arizona.

We need to take care of business.  

The Beavers don't win much when they shoot poorly  .


Their 4 wins, when shooting less than 45%, are against UTSA, Cal Poly, Troy, and Appalachian State.

It's about the same when they shoot three-pointers badly.


Their 4 wins, when shooting less than 37%,  are against Linfield, Cal Poly, Troy, and Arizona State.

They shot pretty well against us in our two meetings.  51% / 36% and 44% / 43%.

The Beavers don't do well in low-scoring games.  


We held them to 63 and 62 points in our two games.  

Their best chance of winning is getting to the free throw line.  


We need to defend without fouling.  They had 11 and 17 free throw attemtps in our two games.  

So here are the keys:

• Defend
• Don't foul
• Get more shots by out-rebounding them and winning the turnover battle.

Go Bruins!