|
|
Post by mhbruin on Mar 9, 2024 9:18:09 GMT -8
Hard work pays off in the future. Laziness pays off now. What's Wrong With These Numbers? These are 528 polling averages. STATE TRUMP HALEY MARGIN
Massachusetts 65.5% 28.7% +36.8
North Carolina 67.6 22.5 +45.1
Virginia 65.2 16.5 +48.7
California 73.4 18.6 +54.7
Texas 78.4 14.4 +64.0
Tennessee 83.3 14.6 +68.8
How did the primary elections turn out? PREDICTED ACTUAL PRO-TRUMP
STATE TRUMP HALEY MARGIN MARGIN ERROR
Massachusetts 65.5% 28.7% +36.8 23.1% 13.7%
North Carolina 67.6 22.5 +45.1 50.6% -5.5%
Virginia 65.2 16.5 +48.7 28.1% 20.6%
California 73.4 18.6 +54.7 60.6% -5.9%
Texas 78.4 14.4 +64.0 60.5% 3.5%
Tennessee 83.3 14.6 +68.8 56.8% 12.0%
But to summary here, of the 6 Super Tuesday states that met 538 criteria for showing a 538 polling average, half of them were way off by double digits (one by more than 20%) and in all 3 cases, the 538 polling averages showed a terribly inaccurate systematic error bias in favor of Trump, that was way off from the actual primary ballot counts where Trump didn’t perform nearly as well. And again since these are 538 averages of multiple polls, it’s not just one poll that’s off or an outlier—the entire polling mechanism for Super Tuesday (like we saw in 2022 mid-terms and special elections) has been terribly inaccurate, with systematic errors for Republicans (in the general election polls and ballot initiatives) and for Trump (in the primaries). Oh, and it gets even worse for the polling predictive value from literally the night before Election Day (it is to say, the polls were basically useless). The ABC News article points out there were a bunch of other Super Tuesday states that didn’t have as many polls taken, so didn’t have a 538 average explicitly, but still had recent polls taken leading right up to Super Tuesday. So it would seem, a reasonable snap-shot and guess of how voters would vote in the primary for these states, at least within the margin of error. Right? Nope. The article doesn’t give specific numbers for most of the remaining states, but one sentence does and really stands out with its predictions—“His (Trump’s) lead is smaller, though still substantial, in the most recent surveys of Utah (27 points) and Vermont (30 points).” Actual results? Trump won the Utah primary by just 13.6%--56.3-42.7%--with the Utah polling off by almost 15%, way beyond the MOE and again with a false showing in favor of Trump. And Vermont? With the apparent 30% Trump lead in the polling? He lost the state primary to Haley by a little over 4%--meaning the primary polling in that state was off by nearly 35%, again showing a false level of support for Trump! |
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Mar 9, 2024 9:19:57 GMT -8
Oops!
The new head of the Republican National Committee appears to have something to hide from the MAGA base, and maybe from Donald Trump himself.
On Friday, Lara Trump was appointed co-chair of the RNC, prompting some Republicans to ditch the party altogether. The chair of the RNC is Michael Whatley, a longtime GOP operative.
It has now been reported that Whatley was selected in part "because of his boosting of election fraud claims." Yet he once deleted a tweet condemning Jan. 6, according to CNN investigative reporter Andy Kaczynski. He added that Whatley nixed a tweet "condemning the violent protests as an assault on democracy."
|
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Mar 9, 2024 9:23:04 GMT -8
Grandpa Speaks
|
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Mar 9, 2024 9:24:51 GMT -8
Dead Men Tell No Tales ... But They Can Withdraw Money
Two roommates of a recently deceased man were each charged with abusing a corpse after propping up his body to withdraw money from his bank, police said.
The pair, Loreen B. Feralo, 55, and Karen Kasbohm, 63, found the man dead Monday and took his body to a bank, where they had previously accompanied him, Ashtabula Police Department Chief Robert B. Stell said in a statement.
With the help of a third, unnamed person, the roommates carried the body to the front seat of the dead man's car so bank staff could see him, and drove to the familiar bank branch, where they withdrew an undisclosed amount, the chief said.
The pair previously withdrew money from the man's account with him present and approving, Stell said. The chief told the Star Beacon, a daily news platform in Ashtabula, the suspects used the bank's drive-thru teller window.
The alleged caper unraveled when the duo dropped the body off at Ashtabula County Medical Center after the withdrawal and left quickly — without giving hospital staff information about the man, Stell said in the statement.
|
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Mar 9, 2024 9:27:08 GMT -8
CNN Gets Meaningless Numbers Faster Than Anyone Else
|
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Mar 9, 2024 9:32:40 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Mar 9, 2024 9:35:38 GMT -8
The Press Doesn't Get It. If Previous Guy Gets Elected, He Will Be Locking THEM Up.
|
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Mar 9, 2024 9:38:43 GMT -8
Don't Start Being Late on Your Credit Card Bills Quite Yet.
President Joe Biden struck a winning note in his State of the Union address when he announced that his administration has moved to cut credit card late fees from $32 to $8. It’s part of a broader effort to eliminate those annoying junk fees that cost American consumers billions of dollars a year.
“They don’t like it,” Biden said. “The credit card companies don’t like it.”
Biden was certainly right about banksters not liking the new regulation on capping credit card late fees announced by the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Tuesday.
Just hours before Biden’s Thursday night address, six trade groups—the American Bankers Association, the Consumer Bankers Association, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and three Texas business associations—filed a federal lawsuit against the CFPB to vacate the new rule.
The trade groups are seeking a preliminary injunction to block the rule, which would otherwise would go into effect in a few months. They went venue shopping, filing the lawsuit in federal court in Fort Worth, Texas, where the two district judges are Reed O’Connor, a George W. Bush appointee, and Mark T. Pittman, a Donald Trump appointee.
O’Connor, whom Vox said is “known for rubber stamping nearly any legal outcome requested by Republicans,” struck down the entire Affordable Care Act as unconstitutional in response to a lawsuit by a Texas-led coalition of 20 states. That was too much even for the Supreme Court, which threw out the lawsuit in 2021.
In 2022, Pittman struck down Biden’s popular student loan forgiveness program, effectively blocking its implementation. That ruling was ultimately upheld by the Supreme Court in a 6-3 decision in 2023.
By filing the lawsuit in the Northern District of Texas, the bankers are guaranteed that any appeal would be heard by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. Democracy Docket considers it “the most conservative federal appeals court in the country.”
|
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Mar 9, 2024 9:41:34 GMT -8
Katie Lies in Her Kitchen
A reporter accused Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) of making false statements when she discussed the horrors of a girl sex-trafficked by Mexican cartel members.
Jonathan M. Katz posted a video on TikTok walking through his dot-connecting that he claims catches the freshman senator making up some details of a vignette as part of the Republican response from a kitchen.
"When I first took office, I did something different," she said. "I traveled to the Del Rio sector of Texas, where I spoke to a woman who shared her story with me.
"She had been sex trafficked by the cartels starting at age 12. She told me not just that she was raped every day, but how many times a day she was raped."
Britt continued: "The cartels put her on a mattress in a shoebox of a room, and they sent men through that door, over and over again, for hours and hours on-end."
At this point, Katz suggests Britt is intimating that the rapes were committed in the U.S. when she states the following: "We wouldn’t be OK with this happening in a third-world country. This is the United States of America, and it’s past time we start acting like it. President Biden’s border crisis is a disgrace. It’s despicable. And it’s almost entirely preventable."
Taking Point Memo John Marshall praised Katz for catching Britt "in an out and out lie."
Katz's digging turned up some proof the victim didn't experience the attacks on American soil, but he also found that the timeline proved Biden wasn't even in office.
There was a trip that Britt took along with Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) along with Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) to the the Del Rio Sector back in last January — all documented on Blackburn's website.
He then cross-referenced the details and found the name: Karla Jacinto Romero, who is described as being pimped by a 22-year-old man at the age of 12, and "enslaved until the age of 16 in brothels, roadside motels and homes in Guadalajara and other cities in Mexico."
These events didn't happen in the United States," said Katz. "These crimes didn't take place in the United States. Or even near the border. They took place in Mexico."
Was It Really Her Kitchen? Or Was it a Kitchen in Mexico?
|
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Mar 9, 2024 9:43:49 GMT -8
Who Put Up Previous Guy's Bond?
According to The New Republic and Raw Story Evan Greenberg was appointed in 2018 to Trump’s White House advisory committee for trade policy and negotiations.
Evan Greenberg is the CEO of Chubb.
Donald Trump posted a $91.6 million bond to cover the $83.3 million a Manhattan jury awarded to writer E. Jean Carroll in January as he appeals the defamation lawsuit's verdict, lawyers for Trump told a court Friday.
The bond would cover the full judgment plus interest and was necessary to delay payment of the sum until the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, can bring down a decision on the former president's appeal, the Associated Press reports.
Trump secured the bond from "Federal Insurance Company, which is a principal of The Chubb Corporation," MSNBC legal correspondent Katie Phang reports. The Chubb Corporation is a global insurer headquartered in New Jersey.
"It will be interesting to see if the judge requires clarification be provided (likely solely to the court) regarding what kind of collateral Trump provided to Chubb to get the bond," national security lawyer Bradley Moss wrote on X. "But either way, Chubb is on the hook now."
|
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Mar 9, 2024 9:45:04 GMT -8
And the Money Kept Rolling In
President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign announced Friday that it had notched record fundraising figures in the hours during and after his State of the Union address.
On Friday, the campaign announced Biden’s high-stakes election-year address powered its best fundraising day since the incumbent president kicked off his reelection bid nearly a year ago.
Biden’s team first logged its most lucrative single hour from 9 p.m. to 10 p.m. on Thursday – an hour that included the president’s entrance into the House chamber and the first half hour of his speech. The record was broken in the 10 p.m. to 11 p.m. hour and then again from 11 p.m. to midnight, the campaign told reporters on a call Friday.
|
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Mar 9, 2024 9:47:04 GMT -8
Machine Guns are Killing Machines
Eleven-year-old Domonic Davis was not far from his mom's Cincinnati home when a hail of gunfire sprayed out from a passing car. Nearly two dozen rounds hurtled through the night at a group of children in the blink of an eye.
Four other children and a woman were hurt in the November shooting that killed Domonic, who had just made his school basketball team.
“What happened? How does this happen to an 11-year-old? He was only a few doors down,” his father, Issac Davis, said.
The shooting remains under investigation. But federal investigators believe the 22 shots could be fired off with lightning speed because the weapon had been illegally converted to fire like a machine gun.
Communities around the U.S. have seen shootings carried out with weapons converted to fully automatic in recent years, fueled by a staggering increase in small pieces of metal or plastic made with a 3D printer or ordered online. Laws against machine guns date back to the bloody violence of Prohibition-era gangsters. But the proliferation of devices known by nicknames such as Glock switches, auto sears and chips has allowed people to transform legal semi-automatic weapons into even more dangerous guns, helping fuel gun violence, police and federal authorities said.
“Police officers are facing down fully automatic weapon fire in amounts that haven’t existed in this country since the days of Al Capone in the Tommy gun,” said Steve Dettelbach, director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, or ATF. "It’s a huge problem.”
The agency reported a 570% increase in the number of conversion devices collected by police departments between 2017 and 2021, the most recent data available.
Guns with conversion devices have been used in several mass shootings, including one that left four dead at a Sweet Sixteen party in Alabama last year and another that left six people dead at a bar district in Sacramento, California, in 2022. In Houston, police officer William Jeffrey died in 2021 after being shot with a converted gun while serving a warrant. In cities such as Indianapolis, police have seized them every week.
The devices that can convert legal semi-automatic weapons can be made on a 3D printer in about 35 minutes or ordered from overseas online for less than $30. They’re also quick to install.
Once in place, they modify the gun's machinery. Instead of firing one round each time the shooter squeezes the trigger, a semi-automatic weapon with a conversion device starts firing as soon as the trigger goes down and doesn’t stop until the shooter lets go or the weapon runs out of ammunition.
|
|
