Post by mhbruin on Mar 7, 2024 10:17:40 GMT -8
It's time for UCLA's last Pac-12 game at Pauley Pavillion. It's also Arizona State's last visit for the forseeable future. Maybe ever. It's a sad occasion.
Welcome to the latest episode of "Who Are These Guys?" 5 of their 8 rotation players are transfers during the last off season. Two others transferred in earlier.
Bobby Hurley lives and dies by the portal. In the last three years, 25 players have transferred out of the ASU program. This past offseason, 9 transferred out and 8 transferred in.
METRICS
The computers like us. Or more likely, they really don't like the Sun Devils.
The computers think we are a bit better. We are playing at home. I guess that is why we are favored by 7.
RECORDS
The Sun Devils have lost 11 of their last 15.
We have lost 5 in a row.
Both teams are less bad at home than on the road.
Arizona State's best wins are over Colorado, Utah, and Washington State. Only the Utah win was on the road.
Their worst losses are to Cal, Oregon State and San Diego (USD not UCSD).
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ARIZONA STATE'S DEFENSE
Arizona has a Top 100 defense, but only one stat about their defense is Top 100. They don't hold teams to low shooting percentages. They aren't great on the defensive boards. They don't block a ton of shots.
Their "superpower" is getting the other team to turn over the ball. They are #40 in steals per game, second only to Arizona in the Pac-12. Their weak offense depends a lot on getting steals and easy baskets.
We have had the ball stolen 10 or more times in 4 games all season. Three of those were in 2023.
We have had double-digit turnovers once in our last 11 games and 14 turnovers once in our last 13 games. We are taking care of the ball better.
I suspect the coaches will emphasize not turning the ball over, and we should will do a good job of that.
Advantage: Even
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ARIZONA STATE'S OFFENSE
All you really need to know about the Sun Devils' offense is that their 4 leading scorers are all guards. They play either 4 out and 1 in, or they play 5 out. They do lots of penetrating and kicking.
When you play drive and kick, you need to be able to make the open three-point shots you are trying to generate. The Sun Devils don't shoot the three very well. When they don't they are forked.
They lead the Pac-12 in fast-break points. They get most of these points off of live-ball turnovers. If you make them play in the half court, they are not very good.
After playing the best offense in the Pac-12, we now play the worst. They are a bad shooting team, particularly from the outside. They are one of the very worst free-throw shooting teams in the country, which is surprising, considering they play 4 guards.
They are even worse on the offensive boards, which is not surprising, considering they play 4 guards.
The only things they do well are that they don't turn the ball over or get their shots blocked. They get a shot at the basket almost every time down the floor --- ONE shot at the basket.
Advantage: UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
We go from one of the very best rebounding teams in the country to one of the very worst. Arizona State is #348 in rebound margin out of 351 teams. They are better than Coppin State, NC A&T, and Pacific. In our first meeting, we out-rebounded them by only 6. We should do better in this game.
OTOH, they are #22 in turnover margin. In our first meeting we had 5 more turnovers than they did. That's another area we need to do better in.
They like to play fast, and they may press a lot to speed up the game and try to get turnovers.
With all those tranfers, they don't have much more continuity from last season than we do. They do have more D1 experience.
Advantage: Even
PLAYERS
Jamiya Neal is the only player who started his college career at ASU. Frankie Collins and Alonzo Gaffney are the only other two rotation players who were at Arizona State last season.
Frankie Collins leads the team in scoring, assists, steals, and turnovers. He's not a great shooter, but he leads the team in FG attempts, but a pretty good margin. He is only shooting 59% on free throws, which is a terrible number for your PG.
Jose Perez is the best three-point shooter on the team by a big margin. So, of course, he is fifth on the team in three-point attemtps. He shoots less than two of them per game. He has teh best A/TO ratio on the team, so Frankie Collins handles the ball a lot more. It's a Bobby Hurley team so anything is possible.
He scored 25 at USC without making a three, while going 11 for 11 from the FT line. He is by far the team leader in free throws, averaging over 6 per game. He makes a respectible 73% of them.
Adam Miller is another guy who doesn't shoot very well, but he shoots enough to usually score in double figures. Over half his shots are threes.
Jamiya Neal hit 3 of 6 three-pointers against us, but that is FAR from typical. He is rarely that accurate.
Alonzo Gaffney has started 26 of the 30 games he has played in. It is hard to understand why. He doesn't shoot well, and he is not a great rebounder. He is the team's worst three-point shooter, yet he attempts over 4 of them per game. I guess Bobby Hurley finally figured it out. Gaffney hasn't been starting lately. He still plays 20-30 minutes per game.
Replacing Gaffney in the starting lineup has been Shawn Phillips who barely saw the floor last season at LSU. He is by far the team's best shot blocker and a much better rebounder than Gaffney. He's not a big scorer nor a great passer.
The rest of Hurley's bench doesn't contribute much.
CONCLUSION
There are three keys to winning this game:
This sounds like Cronin's game plan for every game. Defend, protect the ball, and rebound.
Arizona State is terrible when they are not making three-pointers. The only time they won a game when they shot badly was against Sam Houston.
Keeping them below 30% may seem like a tall order, but that has happened in 40% of their games.
Arizona State isn't very good on the road. If we just do the basic stuff right, we should win this game. Of course, if they suddenly go crazy from the arc, all bets are off.
Then again, they had one of their best three-point shooting games against us in Tempe at 41% and still lost, but the game was close.
I think we match up well against the Sun Devils. This should be a win for Nwuba's senior day.
Go Bruins!
Welcome to the latest episode of "Who Are These Guys?" 5 of their 8 rotation players are transfers during the last off season. Two others transferred in earlier.
Bobby Hurley lives and dies by the portal. In the last three years, 25 players have transferred out of the ASU program. This past offseason, 9 transferred out and 8 transferred in.
METRICS
UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
KenPom | 65% | 68-63 (+5) |
Torvick | 72% | 68-63 (+5) |
Warren Nolan | 71-64 (+7) | |
ESPN | 73% |
The computers like us. Or more likely, they really don't like the Sun Devils.
Arizona St | UCLA | |
NET | 123 | 119 |
KenPom Rank | 116 | 101 |
Torvick Rank | 122 | 99 |
SOS | 32 | 43 |
Record | 14-16 | 14-16 |
The computers think we are a bit better. We are playing at home. I guess that is why we are favored by 7.
RECORDS
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 1-9 | 6-3 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
Arizona St | 2-8 | 6-3 | 4-4 | 2-1 |
The Sun Devils have lost 11 of their last 15.
We have lost 5 in a row.
UCLA Home | 8-7 |
Arizona St Road | 3-7 |
Both teams are less bad at home than on the road.
Arizona State's best wins are over Colorado, Utah, and Washington State. Only the Utah win was on the road.
Their worst losses are to Cal, Oregon State and San Diego (USD not UCSD).
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ARIZONA STATE'S DEFENSE
Arizona St Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 56 | 170 |
Torvick Rank | 63 | 152 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 74 | 66 |
FG Percent | 45% (240) | 42% (307) |
Effective FG Percent | (217) | (332) |
3-Pt Percent | 33% (126) | 32% (277) |
3-Pt Rate | 39% (244) | 29% (341) |
2-Pt Percent | 52% (270) | 45% (340) |
FT Percent | 74% (108) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 30% (234) | 31% (122) |
Assist Percent | 47% (255) | |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 19% (54) | 16% (122) |
Block Percent | 10% (117) | 7% (22) |
Arizona has a Top 100 defense, but only one stat about their defense is Top 100. They don't hold teams to low shooting percentages. They aren't great on the defensive boards. They don't block a ton of shots.
Their "superpower" is getting the other team to turn over the ball. They are #40 in steals per game, second only to Arizona in the Pac-12. Their weak offense depends a lot on getting steals and easy baskets.
Steals Per Game | Record |
10 or more | 7-3 (70%) |
9 or fewer | 7- 13 (35%) |
We have had the ball stolen 10 or more times in 4 games all season. Three of those were in 2023.
Opponent Turnovers Per Game | Record |
14 or more | 9-3 (75%) |
13 or fewer | 5-13 (28%) |
We have had double-digit turnovers once in our last 11 games and 14 turnovers once in our last 13 games. We are taking care of the ball better.
I suspect the coaches will emphasize not turning the ball over, and we should will do a good job of that.
Advantage: Even
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ARIZONA STATE'S OFFENSE
All you really need to know about the Sun Devils' offense is that their 4 leading scorers are all guards. They play either 4 out and 1 in, or they play 5 out. They do lots of penetrating and kicking.
When you play drive and kick, you need to be able to make the open three-point shots you are trying to generate. The Sun Devils don't shoot the three very well. When they don't they are forked.
They lead the Pac-12 in fast-break points. They get most of these points off of live-ball turnovers. If you make them play in the half court, they are not very good.
UCLA Defense | Arizona St Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 54 | 198 |
Torvick Rank | 50 | 201 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 66 | 70 |
FG Percent | 42% (62) | 42% (294) |
Effective FG Percent | 50% (155) | 48% (280) |
3-Pt Percent | 34% (209) | 31% (321) |
3-Pt Rate | 43% (332) | 39% (244) |
2-Pt Percent | 49% (111) | 49% (230) |
FT Percent | 66% (335) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 28% (129) | 21% (354) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 18% (110) | 15% (39) |
Block Percent | 11% (90) | 8% (60) |
After playing the best offense in the Pac-12, we now play the worst. They are a bad shooting team, particularly from the outside. They are one of the very worst free-throw shooting teams in the country, which is surprising, considering they play 4 guards.
They are even worse on the offensive boards, which is not surprising, considering they play 4 guards.
The only things they do well are that they don't turn the ball over or get their shots blocked. They get a shot at the basket almost every time down the floor --- ONE shot at the basket.
Advantage: UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
Arizona St | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | -7.5 | 1.0 |
Turnover Margin | 3.3 | 0.9 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.2 (135) | 1.0 (228) |
Tempo | 88 | 350 out of 362 |
D-1 Experience | 99 | 318 |
Continuity | 259 | 292 |
Average Height | 93 | 45 |
Bench Minutes | 294 | 255 |
We go from one of the very best rebounding teams in the country to one of the very worst. Arizona State is #348 in rebound margin out of 351 teams. They are better than Coppin State, NC A&T, and Pacific. In our first meeting, we out-rebounded them by only 6. We should do better in this game.
OTOH, they are #22 in turnover margin. In our first meeting we had 5 more turnovers than they did. That's another area we need to do better in.
They like to play fast, and they may press a lot to speed up the game and try to get turnovers.
With all those tranfers, they don't have much more continuity from last season than we do. They do have more D1 experience.
Advantage: Even
PLAYERS
Jamiya Neal is the only player who started his college career at ASU. Frankie Collins and Alonzo Gaffney are the only other two rotation players who were at Arizona State last season.
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | Notes | |
Frankie Collins G | Jr | 6-1 | 4-star 47 | 30 | 32 | 14 | 3.4 | 43% | 31% | 37% | 1.3 | Michigan | ||
Jose Perez G | Sr5 | 6-5 | Unranked | 30 | 31 | 14 | 2.7 | 43% | 41% | 15% | 1.7 | From Manhattan | ||
Adam Miller G | Jr | 6-3 | 4-star 35 | 21 | 31 | 12 | 1.6 | 41% | 32% | 54% | 1.1 | From LSU | ||
Jamiya Neal G | Jr | 6-6 | 3-star 219 | 30 | 33 | 11 | 7 | 1.8 | 42% | 28% | 44% | 1.6 | ||
Alonzo Gaffney F | Sr | 6-9 | Unranked | 30 | 26 | 6 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 36% | 25% | 63% | 1.3 | tOSU | |
Shawn Phillips Jr. C | So | 7-0 | 3-star | 22 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 59% | 0.3 | From LSU | ||
Bryant Selebangue F | Jr | 6-8 | Unranked | 30 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 58% | 1.2 | From Tulsa | ||
Kamari Lands G | So | 6-8 | 4-star 79 | 30 | 19 | 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 28% | 28% | 55% | 1.3 | From Louisville | |
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Frankie Collins leads the team in scoring, assists, steals, and turnovers. He's not a great shooter, but he leads the team in FG attempts, but a pretty good margin. He is only shooting 59% on free throws, which is a terrible number for your PG.
Jose Perez is the best three-point shooter on the team by a big margin. So, of course, he is fifth on the team in three-point attemtps. He shoots less than two of them per game. He has teh best A/TO ratio on the team, so Frankie Collins handles the ball a lot more. It's a Bobby Hurley team so anything is possible.
He scored 25 at USC without making a three, while going 11 for 11 from the FT line. He is by far the team leader in free throws, averaging over 6 per game. He makes a respectible 73% of them.
Adam Miller is another guy who doesn't shoot very well, but he shoots enough to usually score in double figures. Over half his shots are threes.
Jamiya Neal hit 3 of 6 three-pointers against us, but that is FAR from typical. He is rarely that accurate.
Alonzo Gaffney has started 26 of the 30 games he has played in. It is hard to understand why. He doesn't shoot well, and he is not a great rebounder. He is the team's worst three-point shooter, yet he attempts over 4 of them per game. I guess Bobby Hurley finally figured it out. Gaffney hasn't been starting lately. He still plays 20-30 minutes per game.
Replacing Gaffney in the starting lineup has been Shawn Phillips who barely saw the floor last season at LSU. He is by far the team's best shot blocker and a much better rebounder than Gaffney. He's not a big scorer nor a great passer.
The rest of Hurley's bench doesn't contribute much.
CONCLUSION
There are three keys to winning this game:
- Defend the three.
- Don't turn the ball over.
- Control the boards.
This sounds like Cronin's game plan for every game. Defend, protect the ball, and rebound.
Arizona State is terrible when they are not making three-pointers. The only time they won a game when they shot badly was against Sam Houston.
Arizona State Three-Point Percentage | Arizona St Record |
30% or Better | 13-5 (72%) |
Less Than 30% | 1-11 (8%) |
Keeping them below 30% may seem like a tall order, but that has happened in 40% of their games.
Arizona St Rebounds | Arizona Record |
30 or more | 11-3 (79%) |
Less Than 30 | 3-13 (19%) |
Arizona State isn't very good on the road. If we just do the basic stuff right, we should win this game. Of course, if they suddenly go crazy from the arc, all bets are off.
Then again, they had one of their best three-point shooting games against us in Tempe at 41% and still lost, but the game was close.
I think we match up well against the Sun Devils. This should be a win for Nwuba's senior day.
Go Bruins!