Post by mhbruin on Mar 3, 2024 12:29:03 GMT -8
Will this be Arizona's last visit to Pauley? I doubt it. However, if it is, I won't particularly miss them or their fans. Are you looking for class? Don't look toward Tucson.
While I would love to make their last visit an unhappy one for them, It doesn't seem very likely. According to all the computer rankings, they are the best team in the Pac-12 with the best offense and the best defense.
Is there any reason for optimism? We only lost by 6 in Tucson when they shot 15 more free throws than we did. Bona fouled out after only 24 mintues. Optimism? No. Hope? Yes.
METRICS
Like I said, the computers don't give us much of a chance. However a 10% to 20% chance isn't zero.
RECORDS
Arizona has quite a few quality wins: Alabama, @duke, Michigan State, @colorado, and Wisconsin.
Their worst losses are on the road at Oregon State and Stanford. How did Oregon State beat them? By shooting 60% from the arc. Stanford won by shooting 64% on their threes. Those are the only times anyone has shot over 50% from outside against the Wildcats.
So beating them is simple. Just shoot 60% or more on our 3-point shots. We have done that exactly ZERO times this year. Our best game was a 50% effort in a win over Oregon. We are 11th in the Pac-12 at three-point shooting. Don't get your hopes up.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ARIZONA'S DEFENSE
Arizona is a very highly-rated defense. With one exception, they don't do anything all that well. They are good at everything, and that turns out to be all it take to be a great defense. No great strengths. No great weaknesses.
The one exception? Defensive rebounding. They play a very high-tempo game. They like to get out and run and yet they rebound their defensive board very well. In fact they are very good at offensive and defensive rebounding.
In our first game, we were out-rebounded 36-29. This might not seem like a good performance, but this is below their average rebounding margin of 11. We will need to at least match that to have a chance of winning.
Our offensei has improved over the season, but it is still pretty poor. In our first matchup, we shot 45% / 35%. That's not bad, but we will need to improve on that to win this game.
Advantage: Arizona
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ARIZONA 'S OFFENSE
Arizona is an elite offense. They are good at just about everything. They shoot very well from inside the arc and from outside they arc. When they miss they are an oustanding offensive rebounding team. They get over 1/3rd of their misses.
We are a good defensive team, but hardly elite. We have breakdowns on defense.
We did a very good job on them in our first meeting holding them to 43% from the field and 23% on three-pointers. A big part was holding Caleb Love to 5 of 16 from the floor and 2 of 8 on threes. We will need Dylan Andrews to repeat that performance.
We gave up 13 offensive rebounds and 17 second-chance points in our first meeting. That was one of our worst performances of the year. We will need to do better than that.
Advantage: Arizona
OTHER FACTORS
Arizona is #3 in the nation in rebound margin. Since they play a very fast game, there will be more rebounds, but they are an OUTSTANDING rebounding team.
They are also a very good ball-handling and passing team.
They like to play VERY fast. We like to play VERY slow. In our first meeting, we controlled the pace, and they had their second-lowest number of field goal attempts on the season. Controlling the tempo will again be critical.
Advantage: Arizona
PLAYERS
On top of everything else, Arizona has had very good luck this year: No significant injuries. The top 8 rotation players have played in every single game. I wonder how many other major teams can say the same.
Caleb love leads the team in shot attempts by a pretty wide margin. In part, this is because he is always open, particularly from the three-point line. At least he thinks he is always open.
He has scored in double figures in 28 of 29 games. He has also taken double-figure shots in 28 of 29 games. After all, he is always open.
He still can shoot the Wildcats into a game and shoot them out of the game. He is having the best shooting season of his career, he is passing the ball, and he is playing defense. In short, he is not the cancer on the team that many predicted he would be. He will probably be named Pac-12 Player of the Year, since he is the highest-scoring player on the best team. I don't think he is even the best player on the Arizona team. That would be Pelle Larson.
Pelle Larson (who still doesn't have an NIL deal for Pelle Windows) is a terrific all-around player. He's the closest to Jaime Jaquez I have seen in the Pac-12 this season. He can shoot the three very well, but he is most dangerous finding a way to get to the rim through traffic. He also leads the team in assists, with a 2.2 A/TO ratio. If he shot more, he might get more ink.
Oumar Ballo is big, strong and athletic. He leads the team in rebounds. He is the second-leading reobunder in the Pac-12, trailing Fardaws Aimaq. He also leads the team in blocks, but is only the 10th best shot blocker in the league. For some reason, he will be named All-Pac-12 after the season. He is a good player, but there are better centers in the league.
Keshad Johnson has surprised me. I thought he would be a good defensive player, but his offense has been better than I expected. He was never this good a three-point shooter at SDSU. He is a very good player who rebounds, blocks shots, and plays defense.
Kylan Boswell is an excellent PG. He can score 19. He can go scoreless. He takes the fewest shots of the starters, but he is dangerous with a long range on his outside shot.
Motiejus Krivas was ranked lower than any of our Euros. However, he has had a better first year than any of our Euros. He is an excellent rebounder and shot blocker, and he has some offensive moves around the basket.
Jaden Bradley was a terrible shooter at Alabama, where he started more than half their games. As the season wound down, he lost his starting job, and he transferred to Arizona. Now he has to live in Tucson, and he still doesn't start. His shooting is better, but he only takes around 4 shots a game. Why should he shoot? Caleb Love is always open. Bradley has turned into a solid backup PG.
KJ Lewis is a great athlete who is very good at rebounding and blocking shots for his size. He is also one of the best ball handlers on the team. He looks like he will be a good player.
CONCLUSION
There are two keys to winning this game:
Although we lost in Tucson, we held them to 23% three-point shooting.
The Wildcats do well when they score a lot. They are vulnerable in low-scoring games.
In our loss in Tucson, we held them to 77 points.
So the way to win is simple. Play as well as we did in Tucson, and hope that the officials don't let them beat us at the free-throw line.
It may sound simple. Executing this plan won't be simple.
Go Bruins!
While I would love to make their last visit an unhappy one for them, It doesn't seem very likely. According to all the computer rankings, they are the best team in the Pac-12 with the best offense and the best defense.
Is there any reason for optimism? We only lost by 6 in Tucson when they shot 15 more free throws than we did. Bona fouled out after only 24 mintues. Optimism? No. Hope? Yes.
METRICS
UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
KenPom | 16% | 68-78 (-10) |
Torvick | 20% | 69-78 (-9) |
Warren Nolan | 70-76 (-6) | |
ESPN | 10% |
Like I said, the computers don't give us much of a chance. However a 10% to 20% chance isn't zero.
Arizona | UCLA | |
NET | 3 | 114 |
KenPom Rank | 4 | 98 |
Torvick Rank | 4 | 96 |
SOS | 21 | 57 |
Record | 23-6 | 14-15 |
RECORDS
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 1-8 | 6-3 | 1-3 | 5-1 |
Arizona | 8-3 | 5-2 | 8-1 | 2-0 |
UCLA Home | 8-6 |
Arizona Road | 6-3 |
Arizona has quite a few quality wins: Alabama, @duke, Michigan State, @colorado, and Wisconsin.
Their worst losses are on the road at Oregon State and Stanford. How did Oregon State beat them? By shooting 60% from the arc. Stanford won by shooting 64% on their threes. Those are the only times anyone has shot over 50% from outside against the Wildcats.
So beating them is simple. Just shoot 60% or more on our 3-point shots. We have done that exactly ZERO times this year. Our best game was a 50% effort in a win over Oregon. We are 11th in the Pac-12 at three-point shooting. Don't get your hopes up.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ARIZONA'S DEFENSE
Arizona Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 14 | 170 |
Torvick Rank | 18 | 152 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 73 | 66 |
FG Percent | 42% (100) | 42% (307) |
Effective FG Percent | (89) | (332) |
3-Pt Percent | 34% (171) | 32% (277) |
3-Pt Rate | 39% (245) | 29% (341) |
2-Pt Percent | 48% (169) | 45% (340) |
FT Percent | 74% (108) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 23% (8) | 31% (122) |
Assist Percent | 47% (255) | |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 18% (109) | 16% (122) |
Block Percent | 9% (168) | 7% (22) |
Arizona is a very highly-rated defense. With one exception, they don't do anything all that well. They are good at everything, and that turns out to be all it take to be a great defense. No great strengths. No great weaknesses.
The one exception? Defensive rebounding. They play a very high-tempo game. They like to get out and run and yet they rebound their defensive board very well. In fact they are very good at offensive and defensive rebounding.
In our first game, we were out-rebounded 36-29. This might not seem like a good performance, but this is below their average rebounding margin of 11. We will need to at least match that to have a chance of winning.
Our offensei has improved over the season, but it is still pretty poor. In our first matchup, we shot 45% / 35%. That's not bad, but we will need to improve on that to win this game.
Advantage: Arizona
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ARIZONA 'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Arizona Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 50 | 6 |
Torvick Rank | 50 | 6 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 90 | |
FG Percent | 42% (62) | 50% (11) |
Effective FG Percent | 50% (155) | 56% (19) |
3-Pt Percent | 34% (209) | 38% (16) |
3-Pt Rate | 43% (332) | 32% (299) |
2-Pt Percent | 49% (111) | 55% (27) |
FT Percent | 72% (174) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 28% (129) | 37% (14) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 18% (110) | 16% (78) |
Block Percent | 11% (90) | 8% (69) |
Arizona is an elite offense. They are good at just about everything. They shoot very well from inside the arc and from outside they arc. When they miss they are an oustanding offensive rebounding team. They get over 1/3rd of their misses.
We are a good defensive team, but hardly elite. We have breakdowns on defense.
We did a very good job on them in our first meeting holding them to 43% from the field and 23% on three-pointers. A big part was holding Caleb Love to 5 of 16 from the floor and 2 of 8 on threes. We will need Dylan Andrews to repeat that performance.
We gave up 13 offensive rebounds and 17 second-chance points in our first meeting. That was one of our worst performances of the year. We will need to do better than that.
Advantage: Arizona
OTHER FACTORS
Arizona | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | 10.7 | 2.3 |
Turnover Margin | 1.9 | 0.9 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.6 (15) | 1.0 (228) |
Tempo | 13 | 349 out of 362 |
D-1 Experience | 84 | 318 |
Continuity | 214 | 292 |
Average Height | 50 | 45 |
Bench Minutes | 280 | 255 |
Arizona is #3 in the nation in rebound margin. Since they play a very fast game, there will be more rebounds, but they are an OUTSTANDING rebounding team.
They are also a very good ball-handling and passing team.
They like to play VERY fast. We like to play VERY slow. In our first meeting, we controlled the pace, and they had their second-lowest number of field goal attempts on the season. Controlling the tempo will again be critical.
Advantage: Arizona
PLAYERS
On top of everything else, Arizona has had very good luck this year: No significant injuries. The top 8 rotation players have played in every single game. I wonder how many other major teams can say the same.
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | Notes | |
Caleb Love G | Sr | 6-4 | 5-star 14 | 29 | 32 | 19 | 3.5 | 44% | 36% | 51% | 1.9 | From North Carolina | ||
Pelle Larsson G | Sr | 6-6 | 3-star 203 | 29 | 30 | 13 | 3.7 | 54% | 43% | 30% | 2.2 | |||
Oumar Ballo C | Sr | 7-0 | 4-star 78 | 29 | 26 | 13 | 16 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 64% | 0.6 | |||
Keshad Johnson F | Sr5 | 6-7 | 3-star 312 | 29 | 27 | 12 | 9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 54% | 36% | 31% | 1.1 | From SDSU |
Kylan Boswell G | So | 6-2 | 4-star 30 | 29 | 27 | 10 | 3.6 | 42% | 40% | 56% | 2.1 | |||
Motiejus Krivas C | Fr | 7-2 | 4-star 135 | 29 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 57% | 0.4 | |||
Jaden Bradley G | So | 6-3 | 4-star 46 | 29 | 20 | 6 | 2.2 | 45% | 44% | 13% | 2.5 | From Alabama | ||
KJ Lewis G | Fr | 6-4 | 4-star 85 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 1.1 | 47% | 32% | 25% | 2.5 | |||
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Caleb love leads the team in shot attempts by a pretty wide margin. In part, this is because he is always open, particularly from the three-point line. At least he thinks he is always open.
He has scored in double figures in 28 of 29 games. He has also taken double-figure shots in 28 of 29 games. After all, he is always open.
He still can shoot the Wildcats into a game and shoot them out of the game. He is having the best shooting season of his career, he is passing the ball, and he is playing defense. In short, he is not the cancer on the team that many predicted he would be. He will probably be named Pac-12 Player of the Year, since he is the highest-scoring player on the best team. I don't think he is even the best player on the Arizona team. That would be Pelle Larson.
Pelle Larson (who still doesn't have an NIL deal for Pelle Windows) is a terrific all-around player. He's the closest to Jaime Jaquez I have seen in the Pac-12 this season. He can shoot the three very well, but he is most dangerous finding a way to get to the rim through traffic. He also leads the team in assists, with a 2.2 A/TO ratio. If he shot more, he might get more ink.
Oumar Ballo is big, strong and athletic. He leads the team in rebounds. He is the second-leading reobunder in the Pac-12, trailing Fardaws Aimaq. He also leads the team in blocks, but is only the 10th best shot blocker in the league. For some reason, he will be named All-Pac-12 after the season. He is a good player, but there are better centers in the league.
Keshad Johnson has surprised me. I thought he would be a good defensive player, but his offense has been better than I expected. He was never this good a three-point shooter at SDSU. He is a very good player who rebounds, blocks shots, and plays defense.
Kylan Boswell is an excellent PG. He can score 19. He can go scoreless. He takes the fewest shots of the starters, but he is dangerous with a long range on his outside shot.
Motiejus Krivas was ranked lower than any of our Euros. However, he has had a better first year than any of our Euros. He is an excellent rebounder and shot blocker, and he has some offensive moves around the basket.
Jaden Bradley was a terrible shooter at Alabama, where he started more than half their games. As the season wound down, he lost his starting job, and he transferred to Arizona. Now he has to live in Tucson, and he still doesn't start. His shooting is better, but he only takes around 4 shots a game. Why should he shoot? Caleb Love is always open. Bradley has turned into a solid backup PG.
KJ Lewis is a great athlete who is very good at rebounding and blocking shots for his size. He is also one of the best ball handlers on the team. He looks like he will be a good player.
CONCLUSION
There are two keys to winning this game:
- Defend the three.
- Keep the score low.
Arizona Three-Point Percentage | Arizona Record |
30% or Better | 19-1 |
Less Than 30% | 4-5 |
Although we lost in Tucson, we held them to 23% three-point shooting.
The Wildcats do well when they score a lot. They are vulnerable in low-scoring games.
Arizona Point Total (regulation) | Arizona Record |
85 or more | 17-0 |
Less Than 85 | 6-6 |
In our loss in Tucson, we held them to 77 points.
So the way to win is simple. Play as well as we did in Tucson, and hope that the officials don't let them beat us at the free-throw line.
It may sound simple. Executing this plan won't be simple.
Go Bruins!