Post by mhbruin on Feb 27, 2024 19:30:22 GMT -8
I agree with this assessment of the the Bruins:
Bad Team.
We are finding different ways to lose. Against USC our offense was terrible. Against Washington, we played much better offense, but we forgot that defending members of the other team is required.
When I last wrote about the Cougars, I was predicting they would finish 8th or 9th in the Pac-12.
The only player on the roster who was highly recruited is freshman Rueben Chinyelu. Somehow Kyle Smith has turned a bunch of guys who nobody else wanted into an NCAA tournament team.
One or more of these is true:
Whatever he is doing, it is working.
And whatever it is, next season Kyle Smith is likely to be a genius or getting lucky somewhere other than Pullman.
METRICS
This is a Quad 1 game for us.
RECORDS
Want some good news? Since Colorado has improved thier NET ranking, our win over Colorado has become a Quad 1 win. The bad news is it doesn't matter.
The Cougars have two wins over Arizona. After that their best wins are Boise St and Colorado.
They have lost to Santa Clara, Arizona State, and California. We are probably better than any of those teams, but all of those losses were on the road.
Their only home loss was to Oregon.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S DEFENSE
Washington State plays a variety of defenses.
Do you think we have a good defense? Our defense is garbage compared to the Cougars. They are very hard to score on. Only 4 teams have scored 80 on them.. Only 11 teams have shot 50% against them. Don't expect us to shoot 50%. We have done it three times all season, and two of those were against Long Island and St. Francis.
They defend the two. They defend the three. They defend their defensive board. They block shots.
The only thing they don't do well is steal the ball. Don't expect a lot of gambling on defense.
The thought of our bad offense going up against the second-best defense in the league is frightening. (Next we play the best KenPom defense.)
Advantage: Washington State (BIG!!)
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS WASHINGTON ST'S OFFENSE
The Cougars are not a one-trick pony. Their offense is not as good as their defense, but it is very good.
They don't do anything spectacularly well, but they are good at everything. They are also not bad at anything, except maybe for free throw shooting. They are very good at not getting their shots blocked.
I think our defensive preformance against Washington was an abberation, not a sign of things to come.
Advantage: Even
OTHER FACTORS
As mentioned, they don't generate a lot of turnovers, but they don't turn the ball over a lot, either.
This should be a contenst to see which team can play slower.
The Cougars have almost as little D-1 experience as we do, but don't let that convince they are as young. They have brought in JUCOs and the best player from D-2 basketball. They may not have a ton of D-1 experience, but they have college basketball experience.
They are tall.
As our visit to Seattle showed, we do much better in low-scoring games.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
When you watch the Cougars play, you might have this reaction.
The only guys you are might recognize from last season are Andrej Jakimovski and Kymany Houinsou. The other six are new to Pac-12 play this season.
When defending WSU, it will be especially critical to remember the scouting report. Wells, Jakimovski, and Watts are going to shoot a lot of threes. Jones, Cluff, Chinyelu, and Houinsou are going to shoot very few if any. The only player with a balanced offensive game is Myles Rice.
Isaac Jones is that rare big player who doesn't want to hang around the arc and shoot three. He does his damage inside, scoring, rebounding, and blocking shots.
A couple of years ago, WSU beat out Belmont and Bucknell for Myles Rice. This is his thrid season in Pullamn, but his first playiing. He got cancer and went through chemotherapy. Now that he is finally playing he is having a great season. He could be Pac-12 Freshman of the Year. He leads the team in scoring, assists, and steals. Can shoot from the outside, drive and score, drive and pass. I expect him to follow Coach Smith to his new job next season.
In my roster preview I wrote, "Jaylen Wells was a Division 2 All-American. If he successfully makes the jump to D-1, he could be a realy good player." He successfully made the jump. He is a really good player. He is by far their best three-point shooter.
Andrej Jakimovski looks like the villain from From Russia with Love, but don't let that muscular build fool you. He is primarily a three-point shooter.
Oscar Cluff is big and a bit slow, but he can hit a jump shot in addition to being a good rebounder and shot-blocker.
Rueben Chinyelu is the only true freshman who plays, and he is a very talented guy. He has recently replaced Cluff as starting center. He is by far their best shot-blocker and he is their best rebounder. He has a nice set of offensive skills. There is a reason some big-time programs like Kansas and Tennesee had offered him.
Kymany Houinsou is the best passer on the team. He doesn't shoot a lot, but he is effective wehn he does.
I was going to write something snarky about Isaiah Watts playing but not doing much. Then in the last game he led the Cougars with 18 points for a career high. He could play 28 minutes against us like the did against USC. He could play 1 minute, like he did a week earlier. Beats me. He is the son of NBA star Slick Watts. If he does shoot, it is likely to be a three.
Jabe Mullins, who played in almost every game last season, barely sees the floor.
CONCLUSION
The Cougars are a much better team than the Huskies who just blew us out. They are almost unbeatable at home.
I have been looking for a reason to be optimistic about this game. I am still looking.
OTOH, there seems to be no correlation between my optimistim and our results.
Go Bruins!
Bad Team.
We are finding different ways to lose. Against USC our offense was terrible. Against Washington, we played much better offense, but we forgot that defending members of the other team is required.
When I last wrote about the Cougars, I was predicting they would finish 8th or 9th in the Pac-12.
The only player on the roster who was highly recruited is freshman Rueben Chinyelu. Somehow Kyle Smith has turned a bunch of guys who nobody else wanted into an NCAA tournament team.
One or more of these is true:
- Coach Kyle Smith is a genius coach.
- Coach Kyle Smith is a genius at evaluating talent.
- Coach Kyle Smith couldn't get other players to come to Pullman and he got very lucky.
Whatever he is doing, it is working.
Offensive Efficiency | Defensive Efficiency | KenPom Rank | |
2018 - 19 | 140 | 284 | 207 |
2019 - 20 (Smith's first year) | 182 | 83 | 127 |
2020 - 21 | 167 | 24 | 78 |
2021 - 22 | 82 | 28 | 44 |
2022 - 23 | 65 | 72 | 67 |
2023 - 24 | 51 | 27 | 35 |
And whatever it is, next season Kyle Smith is likely to be a genius or getting lucky somewhere other than Pullman.
UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
KenPom | 21% | 59-68 (-9) |
Torvick | 20% | 59-67 (-8) |
Warren Nolan | 64-71 (-7) | |
ESPN | 15% |
This is a Quad 1 game for us.
Washington St | UCLA | |
NET | 39 | 113 |
KenPom Rank | 41 | 95 |
Torvick Rank | 40 | 96 |
SOS | 82 | 62 |
Record | 22-7 | 14-14 |
RECORDS
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 1-7 | 7-3 | 1-3 | 5-1 |
Washington St | 6-3 | 3-3 | 6-1 | 7-0 |
Want some good news? Since Colorado has improved thier NET ranking, our win over Colorado has become a Quad 1 win. The bad news is it doesn't matter.
The Cougars have two wins over Arizona. After that their best wins are Boise St and Colorado.
They have lost to Santa Clara, Arizona State, and California. We are probably better than any of those teams, but all of those losses were on the road.
UCLA Road | 5-5 |
Washington St Home | 14-1 |
Their only home loss was to Oregon.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S DEFENSE
Washington State plays a variety of defenses.
Washington St Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 29 | 175 |
Torvick Rank | 35 | 142 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 67 | 66 |
FG Percent | 42% (59) | 41% (319) |
Effective FG Percent | (28) | (334) |
3-Pt Percent | 32% (78) | 32% (285) |
3-Pt Rate | 32% (28) | 29% (339) |
2-Pt Percent | 44% (31) | 45% (341) |
FT Percent | 73% (124) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 26% (44) | 31% (105) |
Assist Percent | 45% (47) | 47% (252) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 16% (258) | 17% (153) |
Block Percent | 13% (32) | 7% (15) |
Do you think we have a good defense? Our defense is garbage compared to the Cougars. They are very hard to score on. Only 4 teams have scored 80 on them.. Only 11 teams have shot 50% against them. Don't expect us to shoot 50%. We have done it three times all season, and two of those were against Long Island and St. Francis.
They defend the two. They defend the three. They defend their defensive board. They block shots.
The only thing they don't do well is steal the ball. Don't expect a lot of gambling on defense.
The thought of our bad offense going up against the second-best defense in the league is frightening. (Next we play the best KenPom defense.)
Advantage: Washington State (BIG!!)
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS WASHINGTON ST'S OFFENSE
The Cougars are not a one-trick pony. Their offense is not as good as their defense, but it is very good.
UCLA Defense | Washington St Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 41 | 53 |
Torvick Rank | 27 | 53 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 65 | 75 |
FG Percent | 42% (62) | 47% (55) |
Effective FG Percent | 49% (118) | 53% (55) |
3-Pt Percent | 33% (111) | 35% (109) |
3-Pt Rate | 43% (338) | 32% (305) |
2-Pt Percent | 49% (134) | 53% (93) |
FT Percent | 72% (227) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 27% (104) | 32% (85) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 19% (84) | 16% (89) |
Block Percent | 11% (74) | 7% (34) |
They don't do anything spectacularly well, but they are good at everything. They are also not bad at anything, except maybe for free throw shooting. They are very good at not getting their shots blocked.
I think our defensive preformance against Washington was an abberation, not a sign of things to come.
Advantage: Even
OTHER FACTORS
Washington St | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | 3.9 | 3.0 |
Turnover Margin | 0.1 | 1.2 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.2 (139) | 1.0 (226) |
Tempo | 311 | 347 out of 362 |
D-1 Experience | 294 | 319 |
Continuity | 303 | 293 |
Average Height | 2 | 42 |
Bench Minutes | 258 | 257 |
As mentioned, they don't generate a lot of turnovers, but they don't turn the ball over a lot, either.
This should be a contenst to see which team can play slower.
The Cougars have almost as little D-1 experience as we do, but don't let that convince they are as young. They have brought in JUCOs and the best player from D-2 basketball. They may not have a ton of D-1 experience, but they have college basketball experience.
They are tall.
As our visit to Seattle showed, we do much better in low-scoring games.
Our Record | |
Opponent Scores 64 or more | 3-12 |
Opponent Scores 63 or less | 11-2 |
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
When you watch the Cougars play, you might have this reaction.
The only guys you are might recognize from last season are Andrej Jakimovski and Kymany Houinsou. The other six are new to Pac-12 play this season.
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG% | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq | A/TO Ratio | Notes | |
Myles Rice G | Fr | 6-3 | 3-star | 29 | 33 | 15 | 3.8 | 45% | 31% | 31% | 1.5 | |||
Isaac Jones F | Sr | 6-9 | Unranked | 29 | 32 | 15 | 10 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 58% | 7% | 5% | 0.8 | Transfer from Idaho |
Jaylen Wells F | Jr | 6-8 | Unranked | 28 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 1.0 | 44% | 45% | 50% | 1.7 | Transfer from Sonoma St | |
Andrej Jakimovski F | Sr | 6-8 | 3-star 141 | 29 | 33 | 10 | 7 | 1.5 | 38% | 34% | 62% | 1.5 | ||
Oscar Cluff F | Jr | 6-11 | JUCO | 29 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 54% | 0.9 | |||
Rueben Chinyelu C | Fr | 6-11 | 4-star 96 | 29 | 29 | 14 | 14 | 0.1 | 3.6 | 63% | 0.1 | |||
Kymany Houinsou G | So | 6-7 | Unranked | 29 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 46% | 39% | 13% | 2.1 | |
Isaiah Watts G | Fr | 6-3 | Unranked | 25 | 9 | 3 | 0.4 | 43% | 38% | 75% | 2.8 | |||
. | ||||||||||||||
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When defending WSU, it will be especially critical to remember the scouting report. Wells, Jakimovski, and Watts are going to shoot a lot of threes. Jones, Cluff, Chinyelu, and Houinsou are going to shoot very few if any. The only player with a balanced offensive game is Myles Rice.
Isaac Jones is that rare big player who doesn't want to hang around the arc and shoot three. He does his damage inside, scoring, rebounding, and blocking shots.
A couple of years ago, WSU beat out Belmont and Bucknell for Myles Rice. This is his thrid season in Pullamn, but his first playiing. He got cancer and went through chemotherapy. Now that he is finally playing he is having a great season. He could be Pac-12 Freshman of the Year. He leads the team in scoring, assists, and steals. Can shoot from the outside, drive and score, drive and pass. I expect him to follow Coach Smith to his new job next season.
In my roster preview I wrote, "Jaylen Wells was a Division 2 All-American. If he successfully makes the jump to D-1, he could be a realy good player." He successfully made the jump. He is a really good player. He is by far their best three-point shooter.
Andrej Jakimovski looks like the villain from From Russia with Love, but don't let that muscular build fool you. He is primarily a three-point shooter.
Oscar Cluff is big and a bit slow, but he can hit a jump shot in addition to being a good rebounder and shot-blocker.
Rueben Chinyelu is the only true freshman who plays, and he is a very talented guy. He has recently replaced Cluff as starting center. He is by far their best shot-blocker and he is their best rebounder. He has a nice set of offensive skills. There is a reason some big-time programs like Kansas and Tennesee had offered him.
Kymany Houinsou is the best passer on the team. He doesn't shoot a lot, but he is effective wehn he does.
I was going to write something snarky about Isaiah Watts playing but not doing much. Then in the last game he led the Cougars with 18 points for a career high. He could play 28 minutes against us like the did against USC. He could play 1 minute, like he did a week earlier. Beats me. He is the son of NBA star Slick Watts. If he does shoot, it is likely to be a three.
Jabe Mullins, who played in almost every game last season, barely sees the floor.
CONCLUSION
The Cougars are a much better team than the Huskies who just blew us out. They are almost unbeatable at home.
I have been looking for a reason to be optimistic about this game. I am still looking.
OTOH, there seems to be no correlation between my optimistim and our results.
Go Bruins!