Post by mhbruin on Feb 26, 2024 11:28:40 GMT -8
Assuming Arizona and Washington State get first-round byes, there are six teams competing for the other two byes.
It the season ended today, we would get the bye, because we have the tirebreaker over Colorado by virtue of our head-to-head win.
The problem is the schedule.
UCLA
@ Washington
@ WSU
Arizona
Arizona St
We have by far the toughest schedule of the remaining teams with three projected losses. None of the other contenders have nearly as difficult a schedule.
Oregon
Oregon St
@ Arizona
Colorado
Utah
Three home geams left, all of which are winnable.
Colorado
Cal
Stanford
@ Oregon
@ Oregon St
Only the Oregon game is a likely loss.
California
@ Colorado
@utah
Stanford
I think we win the tirebreaker.
Utah
Stanford
Cal
@ Oregon St
@ Oregon
Utah presents a real problem if we finish with the same record, since they swept the season series.
CONCLUSION
Our chances for a top-four seed are REALLY slim. If we lose three of our next four, they are basically zero. The Washington game is VERY winnable. If we manage that, then we need at least one upset of either Arizona or WSU. And we can't afford a slipup to ASU. 12-8 should get us a bye. Anything else and pray for four wins in Las Vegas.
| Actual Record | KenPom Projected Record | Torvick Projected Record | |
| Oregon | 10-6 | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| UCLA | 9-7 | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Colorado | 9-7 | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| California | 9-8 | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Arizona St | 8-9 | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Utah | 7-9 | 10-10 | 10-10 |
It the season ended today, we would get the bye, because we have the tirebreaker over Colorado by virtue of our head-to-head win.
The problem is the schedule.
UCLA
@ Washington
@ WSU
Arizona
Arizona St
We have by far the toughest schedule of the remaining teams with three projected losses. None of the other contenders have nearly as difficult a schedule.
Oregon
Oregon St
@ Arizona
Colorado
Utah
Three home geams left, all of which are winnable.
Colorado
Cal
Stanford
@ Oregon
@ Oregon St
Only the Oregon game is a likely loss.
California
@ Colorado
@utah
Stanford
I think we win the tirebreaker.
Utah
Stanford
Cal
@ Oregon St
@ Oregon
Utah presents a real problem if we finish with the same record, since they swept the season series.
CONCLUSION
Our chances for a top-four seed are REALLY slim. If we lose three of our next four, they are basically zero. The Washington game is VERY winnable. If we manage that, then we need at least one upset of either Arizona or WSU. And we can't afford a slipup to ASU. 12-8 should get us a bye. Anything else and pray for four wins in Las Vegas.