Post by mhbruin on Feb 20, 2024 12:32:25 GMT -8
Next we play 11th-place USC. The last time we saw the Trojans, we were getting ou most decisive win of the Pac-12 season. It was the start of our 6-game winning streak.
Since then they have gone 2-4. They also got Isaiah Collier back from injury. Has he helped? Thay have gone 1-3 since his return. Nonetheless, it can't hurt to have your second-leading scorer and assist leader back.
METRICS
When we last played, we were 1 game ahead of them in the Pac-12 standings. We are now 5 games ahead of them. The computers think we are going to make it 6.
Everyone thinks the Trojans will score exactly 64 points.
RECORDS
That's a combined 0-12 in Quad 1 games. Yikes!
USC has played some good teams, but haven't beaten any of them. They did manage a two-point loss to Oklahoma. Oklahoma is in 8th place in the Big 12.
Their best wins are over Utah, Seton Hall, and Kansas State. The Seton Hall and KSU wins were were before Thanksgiving.
Their worst losses are to Long Beach State, Oregon State, and UCLA.
USC has one road win: Over Alabama State, #308 in the NET. Why did they agree to a road game at Alabama State? Good question.
For some reason they are no longer called "Normal School for Colored Students" nor "Alabama State College for Negroes".
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS USC'S DEFENSE
Since our first meeting, their defense is getting worse, and our offense is getting better. Our shooting is better but the biggest improvment is in turnover rate, which has gone from #230 in the nation to #129.
Here is how our offense has improved in the last 10 games.
Going into the Washington game our Effective FG% was 46%. We were better than 46% in 7 of our last 10 games.
Going into the UW game our 3-point percent was 30%. In the last 10 games we have been shooting 37%.
Going into the UW game our turnover rate was 15%. We have been below that for the past 6 games. Prior to the last 2 games we had never been below 10% and we had only been below 15% three times all season.
Our offense is still not a great one, but it is much improved.
This is a typical Andy Enfield defense. Pack it in and challenge you to beat them from the outside. However, this is USC's worst defense since 2019.
They don't pressure the ball much, so they don't create ton of turnovers. Another sign that they dont't pressure the ball is that they allow teams to pass the ball pretty freely and assist on a lot of baskets. They also don't defend the three-point shot well.
They are elite at one thing, blocking shots. They have several good shot blockers, but the real reason is Joshua Morgan. He is #7 in blocks per game, and he only averages 21 minutes per game. If he played 30 minutes per game, he would probably lead the country.
In our first meeting they blocked TEN of our shots. They blocked 25% of our two-point attempts. We have been a very good team at not getting our shots blocked, but we weren't that night. 6 different Trojans blocked at least one shot But we shot 44% from the arc to make up for it.
A month ago, I would have seen this "advantage USC". Not today.
Advantage: Even.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS USC 'S OFFENSE
For the most part, USC is mediocre on offense. They are mediocre in almost every offensive category.
In the few categories where they are not mediocre, they are bad. They are bad at shooting free throws, protecting the ball, and at getting their shots blocked.
In our first game they shot 65% from the line, but they only had 8 turnovers and only 4 of their shots were blocked. In recent games, SC seems to have cut down their turnovers and are getting fewer of their shots blocked, so I wouldn't count on a huge edge there.
Nonetheless, we are an excellent defense against a mediocre offense.
Advantage: UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
They are a very tall team, but not a very good rebounding team. We have a distinct advantage in rebound margin and A/TO margin. In our first game we out-rebounded them 43-29, and on the offensive boards, the margin was 15-7. We took 8 more shots and attemtped 8 more free throws. That was a big reason we won the game. Turnovers were almost even.
We are one of the very slowest teams in basketball. The only major teams that play slower are South Carolina, Saint Mary's, and Virginia.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
The Trojans are an experienced team. They will start three 5th-year seniors, a junior, and a freshman. DJ Rodman and the freshmen are the only players who weren't on the roster last year.
They also have three McDonald's All Americans on the roster. And they are mired in 11th place in the Pac-12, closer to 12th than 10th.
I picked them to win the Pac-12. I am thrilled to be wrong.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Bronny James and Vincent Iwuchukwu are the cardiac kids. Not because of how they play. They have had heart attacks before their freshman seasons. They both seem to be doing fine. Good.
The Trojans have two centers who split the minutes. Neither is a big scorer. They are both excellent rebounders. Iwuchkwu is better on the boards, and Morgan is a terrific rim protector and passes the ball better. Neither of them has attempted a three-pointer. The Trojans don't run a lot of plays for the centers, although they will pass them the ball if they are open. Iwuchukwu has a good post-up game.
As mentioned, if Morgan were playing more minutes, he would lead the country in blocked shots. I think he should be Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year. (Sorry, Adem.) I also think he should play more. But what do I know? I'm not paid $3 million per year to go 10-16. I'm paid nothing to sit at home and write game previews. My record of getting things right is probably about the same as Andy Enfield's.
Other than the two centers, most of the players LOVE to shoot 3-pointers. Ellis, Rodman, and James all take over half their shots from the arc, and Harrison Hornery shoots 71% of his shots from outside, hitting only 29%. Boogie Ellis is a very dangerous 3-point shooter at 46% and Rodman is decent at 38%. Rodman makes up for it by not shooting well inside the arc.
Oziyah Sellers is the other dangerous three-point shooter, but he hasn't been playing much lately. I guess Andy Enfield has a contractual obligation to play 5-star and 4-star players, whether or not they deserve it. Or maybe he is dumb enough to make promises to recruits about playing time.
The two starting guards are opposites. Boogie Ellis is the star of the team and an all-conference player. He does most of his damage from the three-point line, although he can drive to the hoop. He has had some 25 to 30-point games, but he hasn't been shooting well lately. He has a quick release and long range, so he remains dangerous.
In contrast, Isaiah Collier does most of his damage on driving to the hoop. He is strong for a guard and is very good at drawing fouls on his drives. He has been in double figures in 19 of the 20 games he has played in and he has had over 10 free throws four times this season. Dylan Andrews can match him in quickness, but not in strength.
Kobe Johnson is a very good defensive player. He is a strong rebounder and handles the ball well. However, he has never been a great shooter, and he is having a bad-shooting season. In spite of this, he is second on the team in shots taken.
You might expect Dennis Rodman's son to be an excellent rebounder. He is. You might also remember him scoring 19 points against us in Pauley last season. That was an abberation. It is his third-highest scoring total for his 5-year career. He is averaging 7 points this season, and he isn't shooting well.
Bronny James is a victim of the hype machine. I hear he has a famous father.
He gets relentlessly booed at every road game. If he were Bronny Jones, he would have been a 4-star, top 100 recruit, not a McDonald's All American. You would say he was having a solid freshman season. He isn't shooting all that well, but he plays solid defense, handles the ball very well, and rebounds.
Speaking of over-rated, I have never understood how Kijani Wright made the McDonald's All American team. He's not a bad player. He is a good offensive rebounder and gets most of his points on putbacks. His offensive game is getting better. He is a solid Pac-12 backup. He's just not one of the best players in the country.
Harrison Hornery is a 6-10 guy who loves to shoot three-pointers. Sometimes he makes one or two. 67% of his shots are threes, and he misses 71% of them.
CONCLUSION
This is still a very talented team. They have a bunch of 5-star and 4-star players and plenty of experience. They have seriously underperformed the talent on their roster.
Our three-point shooting may be the key to the game. SC doesn't loses a lot when they don't defend the three well.
We win a lot when we shoot the three well.
We are shooting 31.7% on the season. The Trojan defense is allowing 36.6% three-point shooting. We shot 44% against them earlier in the season.
No Threes? No Victories.
We have been above 30% in 8 of our last ten games.
We currently lead the Trojans by 1 game in the Pac-12 standings. Here's hoping that by Sunday it will be a two-game lead. After all, they are still Just SC.
Go Bruins!
Since then they have gone 2-4. They also got Isaiah Collier back from injury. Has he helped? Thay have gone 1-3 since his return. Nonetheless, it can't hurt to have your second-leading scorer and assist leader back.
METRICS
UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
KenPom | 67% | 69-64 (+5) |
Torvick | 69% | 68-64 (+5) |
Warren Nolan | 73-64 (+9) | |
ESPN | 63% |
When we last played, we were 1 game ahead of them in the Pac-12 standings. We are now 5 games ahead of them. The computers think we are going to make it 6.
Everyone thinks the Trojans will score exactly 64 points.
USC | UCLA | |
NET | 108 | 105 |
KenPom Rank | 103 | 90 |
Torvick Rank | 82 | 102 |
SOS | 34 | 54 |
Record | 10-16 | 14-12 |
RECORDS
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 0-6 | 7-3 | 1-2 | 5-1 |
USC | 0-6 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 4-0 |
That's a combined 0-12 in Quad 1 games. Yikes!
USC has played some good teams, but haven't beaten any of them. They did manage a two-point loss to Oklahoma. Oklahoma is in 8th place in the Big 12.
Their best wins are over Utah, Seton Hall, and Kansas State. The Seton Hall and KSU wins were were before Thanksgiving.
Their worst losses are to Long Beach State, Oregon State, and UCLA.
UCLA Home | 8-5 |
USC Road | 1-8 |
USC has one road win: Over Alabama State, #308 in the NET. Why did they agree to a road game at Alabama State? Good question.
For some reason they are no longer called "Normal School for Colored Students" nor "Alabama State College for Negroes".
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS USC'S DEFENSE
Since our first meeting, their defense is getting worse, and our offense is getting better. Our shooting is better but the biggest improvment is in turnover rate, which has gone from #230 in the nation to #129.
Here is how our offense has improved in the last 10 games.
Eff FG% | 3-Point Percent | Turnover Rate | |
Washington | 56% | 43% | 21% |
@ Arizona State | 55% | 37% | 19% |
@ Arizona | 53% | 35% | 20% |
@ USC | 42% | 44% | 17% |
Oregon State | 48% | 37% | 13% |
Oregon | 50% | 50% | 11% |
@ Stanford | 56% | 44% | 14% |
@ California | 41% | 29% | 11% |
Colorado | 48% | 33% | 9% |
Utah | 44% | 24% | 8% |
Going into the Washington game our Effective FG% was 46%. We were better than 46% in 7 of our last 10 games.
Going into the UW game our 3-point percent was 30%. In the last 10 games we have been shooting 37%.
Going into the UW game our turnover rate was 15%. We have been below that for the past 6 games. Prior to the last 2 games we had never been below 10% and we had only been below 15% three times all season.
Our offense is still not a great one, but it is much improved.
USC Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 116 | 167 |
Torvick Rank | 111 | 162 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 76 | 65 |
FG Percent | 43% (151) | 42% (309) |
Effective FG Percent | (164) | (331) |
3-Pt Percent | 37% (334) | 32% (256) |
3-Pt Rate | 39% (245) | 29% (341) |
2-Pt Percent | 50% (183) | 45% (340) |
FT Percent | 73% (141) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 33% (326) | 31% (110) |
Assist Percent | 60% (346) | 47% (251) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 19% (88) | 17% (129 |
Block Percent | 15% (11) | 7% (15) |
This is a typical Andy Enfield defense. Pack it in and challenge you to beat them from the outside. However, this is USC's worst defense since 2019.
They don't pressure the ball much, so they don't create ton of turnovers. Another sign that they dont't pressure the ball is that they allow teams to pass the ball pretty freely and assist on a lot of baskets. They also don't defend the three-point shot well.
They are elite at one thing, blocking shots. They have several good shot blockers, but the real reason is Joshua Morgan. He is #7 in blocks per game, and he only averages 21 minutes per game. If he played 30 minutes per game, he would probably lead the country.
In our first meeting they blocked TEN of our shots. They blocked 25% of our two-point attempts. We have been a very good team at not getting our shots blocked, but we weren't that night. 6 different Trojans blocked at least one shot But we shot 44% from the arc to make up for it.
A month ago, I would have seen this "advantage USC". Not today.
Advantage: Even.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS USC 'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | USC Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 29 | 72 |
Torvick Rank | 31 | 104 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 64 | 75 |
FG Percent | 42% (62) | 45% (182) |
Effective FG Percent | 49% (120) | 51% (158) |
3-Pt Percent | 33% (111) | 35% (126) |
3-Pt Rate | 43% (338) | 37% (191) |
2-Pt Percent | 49% (134) | 50% (183) |
FT Percent | 69% (293) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 27% (104) | 30% (129) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 19% (84) | 18% (220) |
Block Percent | 11% (74) | 10% (224) |
For the most part, USC is mediocre on offense. They are mediocre in almost every offensive category.
In the few categories where they are not mediocre, they are bad. They are bad at shooting free throws, protecting the ball, and at getting their shots blocked.
In our first game they shot 65% from the line, but they only had 8 turnovers and only 4 of their shots were blocked. In recent games, SC seems to have cut down their turnovers and are getting fewer of their shots blocked, so I wouldn't count on a huge edge there.
Nonetheless, we are an excellent defense against a mediocre offense.
Advantage: UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
USC | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | -2.9 | 3.4 |
Turnover Margin | -0.6 | 1.2 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.3 (102) | 1.0 (233) |
Tempo | 116 | 345 out of 362 |
D-1 Experience | 91 | 318 |
Continuity | 165 | 293 |
Average Height | 7 | 43 |
Bench Minutes | 282 | 250 |
They are a very tall team, but not a very good rebounding team. We have a distinct advantage in rebound margin and A/TO margin. In our first game we out-rebounded them 43-29, and on the offensive boards, the margin was 15-7. We took 8 more shots and attemtped 8 more free throws. That was a big reason we won the game. Turnovers were almost even.
We are one of the very slowest teams in basketball. The only major teams that play slower are South Carolina, Saint Mary's, and Virginia.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
The Trojans are an experienced team. They will start three 5th-year seniors, a junior, and a freshman. DJ Rodman and the freshmen are the only players who weren't on the roster last year.
They also have three McDonald's All Americans on the roster. And they are mired in 11th place in the Pac-12, closer to 12th than 10th.
I picked them to win the Pac-12. I am thrilled to be wrong.
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | Notes | |
Boogie Ellis G | Sr 5 | 6-3 | 4-star 38 | 22 | 34 | 17 | 3.3 | 43% | 41% | 55% | 1.8 | Leading scorer | ||
Isaiah Collier G | Fr | 6-5 | 5-star 1 | 20 | 29 | 16 | 4.4 | 49% | 32% | 26% | 1.3 | Leads in assists and turnovers | ||
Kobe Johnson G | Jr | 6-6 | 3-star 247 | 24 | 30 | 10 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 38% | 28% | 42% | 1.7 | Leads in steals |
DJ Rodman F | Sr 5 | 6-6 | 2-star 572 | 25 | 26 | 8 | 7.6 | 1.2 | 41% | 38% | 51% | 1.0 | Transfer from Washington St. | |
Joshua Morgan F | Sr 5 | 6-11 | 3-star 174 | 24 | 21 | 6 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 4.8 | 58% | 1.4 | Leads in blocks. #7 in nation. Adem Bona is #. | ||
Vincent Iwuchukwu F | So | 7-1 | 5-star 23 | 24 | 15 | 6 | 10.4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 53% | 0.8 | Leading rebounder | ||
Oziyah Sellers G | So | 6-5 | 3-star 138 | 26 | 16 | 6 | 0.6 | 46% | 43% | 41% | 1.2 | |||
Bronny James G | Fr | 6-4 | 5-star 21 | 18 | 21 | 6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 37% | 28% | 53% | 2.2 | ||
Harrison Hornery F | Jr | 6-10 | 4-star 102 | 22 | 16 | 4 | 8.3 | 0.8 | 33% | 29% | 67% | 1.3 | ||
Kijani Wright F | So | 6-9 | 4-star 44 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 9.1 | 0.5 | 60% | 0.7 | ||||
Arrinten Page F | Fr | 6-11 | 4-star 46 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 8.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 49% | 31% | 25% | 0.5 |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Bronny James and Vincent Iwuchukwu are the cardiac kids. Not because of how they play. They have had heart attacks before their freshman seasons. They both seem to be doing fine. Good.
The Trojans have two centers who split the minutes. Neither is a big scorer. They are both excellent rebounders. Iwuchkwu is better on the boards, and Morgan is a terrific rim protector and passes the ball better. Neither of them has attempted a three-pointer. The Trojans don't run a lot of plays for the centers, although they will pass them the ball if they are open. Iwuchukwu has a good post-up game.
As mentioned, if Morgan were playing more minutes, he would lead the country in blocked shots. I think he should be Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year. (Sorry, Adem.) I also think he should play more. But what do I know? I'm not paid $3 million per year to go 10-16. I'm paid nothing to sit at home and write game previews. My record of getting things right is probably about the same as Andy Enfield's.
Other than the two centers, most of the players LOVE to shoot 3-pointers. Ellis, Rodman, and James all take over half their shots from the arc, and Harrison Hornery shoots 71% of his shots from outside, hitting only 29%. Boogie Ellis is a very dangerous 3-point shooter at 46% and Rodman is decent at 38%. Rodman makes up for it by not shooting well inside the arc.
Oziyah Sellers is the other dangerous three-point shooter, but he hasn't been playing much lately. I guess Andy Enfield has a contractual obligation to play 5-star and 4-star players, whether or not they deserve it. Or maybe he is dumb enough to make promises to recruits about playing time.
The two starting guards are opposites. Boogie Ellis is the star of the team and an all-conference player. He does most of his damage from the three-point line, although he can drive to the hoop. He has had some 25 to 30-point games, but he hasn't been shooting well lately. He has a quick release and long range, so he remains dangerous.
In contrast, Isaiah Collier does most of his damage on driving to the hoop. He is strong for a guard and is very good at drawing fouls on his drives. He has been in double figures in 19 of the 20 games he has played in and he has had over 10 free throws four times this season. Dylan Andrews can match him in quickness, but not in strength.
Kobe Johnson is a very good defensive player. He is a strong rebounder and handles the ball well. However, he has never been a great shooter, and he is having a bad-shooting season. In spite of this, he is second on the team in shots taken.
You might expect Dennis Rodman's son to be an excellent rebounder. He is. You might also remember him scoring 19 points against us in Pauley last season. That was an abberation. It is his third-highest scoring total for his 5-year career. He is averaging 7 points this season, and he isn't shooting well.
Bronny James is a victim of the hype machine. I hear he has a famous father.
He gets relentlessly booed at every road game. If he were Bronny Jones, he would have been a 4-star, top 100 recruit, not a McDonald's All American. You would say he was having a solid freshman season. He isn't shooting all that well, but he plays solid defense, handles the ball very well, and rebounds.
Speaking of over-rated, I have never understood how Kijani Wright made the McDonald's All American team. He's not a bad player. He is a good offensive rebounder and gets most of his points on putbacks. His offensive game is getting better. He is a solid Pac-12 backup. He's just not one of the best players in the country.
Harrison Hornery is a 6-10 guy who loves to shoot three-pointers. Sometimes he makes one or two. 67% of his shots are threes, and he misses 71% of them.
CONCLUSION
This is still a very talented team. They have a bunch of 5-star and 4-star players and plenty of experience. They have seriously underperformed the talent on their roster.
Our three-point shooting may be the key to the game. SC doesn't loses a lot when they don't defend the three well.
USC Opponents' Three-Point Percentage | USC Record |
30% or Better | 3-15 |
Less Than 30% | 7-1 |
We win a lot when we shoot the three well.
UCLA Three-Point Percentage | UCLA Record |
30% or Better | 11-4 |
Less Than 30% | 3-8 |
We are shooting 31.7% on the season. The Trojan defense is allowing 36.6% three-point shooting. We shot 44% against them earlier in the season.
No Threes? No Victories.
We have been above 30% in 8 of our last ten games.
We currently lead the Trojans by 1 game in the Pac-12 standings. Here's hoping that by Sunday it will be a two-game lead. After all, they are still Just SC.
Go Bruins!