Post by mhbruin on Feb 14, 2024 14:04:27 GMT -8
When we last saw Utah, they were beating the crap out of us. Since then, they have gone 3-6, and we have gone 8-1. They have fallen into a tie for 8th place in the Pac-12, and we are in third place. They were last seen losing to 11th-place USC. Time for a little payback.
METRICS
Most of the computers still don't believe.
We still can't get below 100 in the NET.
The Utes have played a very tough schedule.
RECORDS
Our Maryland loss has moved up from a Quad 3 loss to a Quad 2 loss.
What's keeping Utah in good shape with the computers are those three Quad 1 wins over BYU, Saint Mary's, and Wake Forest.
On the other hand, they have lost to Arizona State (twice), USC, and Stanford.
Colorado's has some good wins over Washington, Washington State, and Miami, although only WSU is likely to go dancing. The Buffs have no great wins. The Buffs have no terrible losses. Their worst losses are to Arizona State, Cal, and Florida State. In Quad 3 and Quad 4 games, they never won by fewer than 10 points.
Colorado has lost 3 of their last 4, but those losses were at Washington State, at Utah, and against Arizona. None of those are bad losses.
This will be a Quad 2 game for both teams.
Now we come to the key stat:
Buffaloes don't roam well and neither do Utes. Utah is 12-2 in Salt Lake City and 1-6 on the road. They have yet to win a Pac-12 road game.
Their only road win was at Saint Mary's back when Saint Mary's was playing like crap. Two weeks earlier they lost at home to Weber State. Saint Mary's isn't playing like crap anymore. The Gaels have won 13 straight.
Their only road win was at Washington. Washington is the 10th place team in the Pac-12, but that is a Quad 1 win for Colorado. Go figure.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS UTAH'S DEFENSE
Utah will mix defenses, playing mostly man and 1-3-1 zone. They don't pressure a lot or generate a lot of turnovers.
Utah's defensive philosophy is pretty simple. Crowd the lane. Force the opponent to beat them from outside. They are one of the tallest teams in the country and usually play two bigs at the same time. They won't try to generate turnovers, but they will block your shot if you go inside. This could be a challenging game for Bona.
Utah's problem is that their defense doesn't travel well. Here are their defensive stats.
I don't think this is their favorite song:
Our offense still sucks, but it's good enough against their road defense.
Advantage: Utah, small edge. I would give them a big edge at home, but not at Pauley.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS UTAH'S OFFENSE
How well does their offense travel? No better than their defense.
They are a good shooting team at both twos and threes, but not on the road. No matter where they are playing they are a poor free-throw shooting team. However, they don't get to the line a lot.
They tend to turn the ball over quite a bit, and we have been generating more turnovers lately.
They also don't seem to do well unless they are shooting a high percentage.
Only four teams have shot 50% or higher from the floor against us. The Utes have yet to shoot 47% on the road.
Advantage: UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
TheUtes are one of the tallest teams in the country, and they usually play two bigs. Surprisingly, they are not an outstanding rebounding team. As with all Craig Smith teams, the Utes are an excellent passing team. They assist on 59% of their baskets which is good for #29 in the country.
We have had a turnover problem but not lately. In our last 6 games we are averaging a 5.0 turnover margin.
They like to play fast. We need to get back on defense. We are still SLOW, but we don't give up a lot of fast-break baskets.
PLAYERS
Utah plays a LOT of guys. 9 guys average at least 17 minutes. Seven of them are seniors. Six of them played for Utah last season. So you have maturity, experience, and continuity.
Branden Carlson is probably the best college center in the Pac-12. He leads the Utes in points, rebounds and blocks. He can score from inside. He can score from outside. He has been a five-year starter for Utah.
Gabe Madsen loves to shoot the three. 2/3rds of his shots are threes. He takes easy ones. He takes hard ones. Quite a few go in. He's Coach Smith's security blanket. He plays more minutes than anyone else.
Utah got lucky in a court case they weren't even a party to. Transfer Deivon Smith was sitting out a year due to his second transfer, until a judge decided to invalidate that NCAA rule. Then their PG Rollie Wooster went down with an injury and hasn't played for over a month. Smith has done a good job of filling in, but the Utes have gone 3-6 without Wooster.
Smith is VERY quick and is a FAR bigger threat to drive to the hoop. He is a decent 3-point shooter, but doesn't take a lot of them. In Wooster's absence, he leads the team in assists. He will be Dylan Andrews' latest challenge.
Rollie Wooster has the 4th best A/TO ratio in the Pac-12.
Keba Keita is a terrific athlete and a very quick leaper. He is outstanding on the boards. He sets solid screens, and he has some offensive skills.
Cole Bajema transferred from Washingon. He's another guy who shoots a lot of threes. He mostly makes them when he is open in the corner. We should guard him there.
Lawson Lovering was a full-time starter at Colorado. I wondered why he transferred to Utah to play behind Brandon Carlson, but he has been starting next to Carlson -- until recently. Now he is coming off the bench. Next season Brandon Carlson will be gone. Maybe Lovering can start then. He has skills around the basket, and shoots the occasional three. He doesn't shoot the three very well.
Ben Carlson transferred from Wisconsin, just to give the Utes two B. Carlsons. He started every game last season. He has started 1 game this season. I don't know why. He seems like a solid glue guy. He is another member of the "shoots a lot of threes" club.
Hunter Erickson is the 4th member of the team whose name ends in "son" or "sen". He would be another good PG, except his shooting isn't very good.
Jake Wahlin signed with BYU and took a mission. When he came back, he switched to Utah. Those teams didn't like each other to start with. Just what they needed. Another reason to hate each other. They'll have fun in the Big 12 together. Wahlin can rebound, but he can't shoot.
CONCLUSION
A Tale of Two Teams
"They are the best of teams; they are worst of teams."
This could apply to UCLA before and after we started winning. It could also apply to Utah at home and on the road.
Our first meeting was a matchup between good Utah and bad UCLA. It was ugly.
This looks like a matchup between good UCLA and bad Utah. I like that matchup. Utah just isn't the same team on the road.
Hopefully, it will be a far, far better thing that we do, than we have ever done.
Go Bruins!
METRICS
UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
KenPom | 48% | 67-68 (-1) |
Torvick | 47% | 66-67 (-1) |
Warren Nolan | 73-65 (+8) | |
ESPN | 48% |
Most of the computers still don't believe.
Utah | UCLA | |
NET | 48 | 106 |
KenPom Rank | 44 | 89 |
Torvick Rank | 41 | 89 |
SOS | 18 | 47 |
Record | 15-10 | 14-11 |
We still can't get below 100 in the NET.
The Utes have played a very tough schedule.
RECORDS
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 0-6 | 7-2 | 1-2 | 5-1 |
Utah | 3-8 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 5-0 |
Our Maryland loss has moved up from a Quad 3 loss to a Quad 2 loss.
What's keeping Utah in good shape with the computers are those three Quad 1 wins over BYU, Saint Mary's, and Wake Forest.
On the other hand, they have lost to Arizona State (twice), USC, and Stanford.
Colorado's has some good wins over Washington, Washington State, and Miami, although only WSU is likely to go dancing. The Buffs have no great wins. The Buffs have no terrible losses. Their worst losses are to Arizona State, Cal, and Florida State. In Quad 3 and Quad 4 games, they never won by fewer than 10 points.
Colorado has lost 3 of their last 4, but those losses were at Washington State, at Utah, and against Arizona. None of those are bad losses.
This will be a Quad 2 game for both teams.
Now we come to the key stat:
UCLA Home | 7-4 |
Utah Road | 1-6 |
Buffaloes don't roam well and neither do Utes. Utah is 12-2 in Salt Lake City and 1-6 on the road. They have yet to win a Pac-12 road game.
Their only road win was at Saint Mary's back when Saint Mary's was playing like crap. Two weeks earlier they lost at home to Weber State. Saint Mary's isn't playing like crap anymore. The Gaels have won 13 straight.
Their only road win was at Washington. Washington is the 10th place team in the Pac-12, but that is a Quad 1 win for Colorado. Go figure.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS UTAH'S DEFENSE
Utah will mix defenses, playing mostly man and 1-3-1 zone. They don't pressure a lot or generate a lot of turnovers.
Utah Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 52 | 170 |
Torvick Rank | 41 | 164 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 73 | 66 |
FG Percent | 42% (106) | 42% (304) |
Effective FG Percent | (90) | (325) |
3-Pt Percent | 35% (264) | 33% (235) |
3-Pt Rate | 37% (179) | 29% (343) |
2-Pt Percent | 47% (46) | 45% (342) |
FT Percent | 72% (172) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 27% (82) | 31% (116) |
Assist Percent | 54% (262) | 48% (241) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 15% (310) | 17% (154) |
Block Percent | 11% (85) | 7% (17) |
Utah's defensive philosophy is pretty simple. Crowd the lane. Force the opponent to beat them from outside. They are one of the tallest teams in the country and usually play two bigs at the same time. They won't try to generate turnovers, but they will block your shot if you go inside. This could be a challenging game for Bona.
Utah's problem is that their defense doesn't travel well. Here are their defensive stats.
Opponent 2-Point Percent | Opponent 3-Point Percent | |
Home | 37% | 29% |
Road | 49% | 39% |
I don't think this is their favorite song:
Our offense still sucks, but it's good enough against their road defense.
Advantage: Utah, small edge. I would give them a big edge at home, but not at Pauley.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS UTAH'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Utah Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 26 | 49 |
Torvick Rank | 26 | 57 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 64 | 79 |
FG Percent | 41% (62) | 47% (49) |
Effective FG Percent | (114) | (56) |
3-Pt Percent | 33% (119) | 36% (75) |
3-Pt Rate | 43% (330) | 39% (138) |
2-Pt Percent | 49% (125) | 54% (65) |
FT Percent | 65% (345) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 27% (103) | 29% (194) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 19% (77) | 17% (127) |
Block Percent | 11% (82) | 8% (115) |
How well does their offense travel? No better than their defense.
2-Point Percent | 3-Point Percent | |
Home | 51% | 38% |
Road | 42% | 31% |
They are a good shooting team at both twos and threes, but not on the road. No matter where they are playing they are a poor free-throw shooting team. However, they don't get to the line a lot.
They tend to turn the ball over quite a bit, and we have been generating more turnovers lately.
They also don't seem to do well unless they are shooting a high percentage.
Field Goal Percent | Record |
Less than 47% | 3-10 |
47% or higher | 12-0 |
Only four teams have shot 50% or higher from the floor against us. The Utes have yet to shoot 47% on the road.
Advantage: UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
Utah | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | 1.9 | 3.5 |
Turnover Margin | 1.2 | -1.0 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.5 (38) | 1.0 (246) |
Tempo | 73 | 338 |
D-1 Experience | 75 | 318 |
Continuity | 98 | 293 |
Average Height | 5 | 39 |
Bench Minutes | 108 | 252 |
TheUtes are one of the tallest teams in the country, and they usually play two bigs. Surprisingly, they are not an outstanding rebounding team. As with all Craig Smith teams, the Utes are an excellent passing team. They assist on 59% of their baskets which is good for #29 in the country.
We have had a turnover problem but not lately. In our last 6 games we are averaging a 5.0 turnover margin.
They like to play fast. We need to get back on defense. We are still SLOW, but we don't give up a lot of fast-break baskets.
PLAYERS
Utah plays a LOT of guys. 9 guys average at least 17 minutes. Seven of them are seniors. Six of them played for Utah last season. So you have maturity, experience, and continuity.
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | Notes | |
Branden Carlson C | Sr 5 | 7-0 | 4-star 102 | 24 | 30 | 17 | 9.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 47% | 34% | 36% | 1.3 | 5-yr starter |
Gabe Madsen G | Sr | 6-6 | 3-star 209 | 25 | 32 | 13 | 2.3 | 45% | 40% | 66% | 1.1 | |||
Deivon Smith G | Sr | 6-0 | 4-star 65 | 16 | 27 | 11 | 5.9 | 42% | 34% | 23% | 2.4 | Transfer from Georgia Tech | ||
Keba Keita C | So | 6-8 | 3-star 158 | 23 | 18 | 10 | 14.2 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 64% | 0.7 | |||
Cole Bajema G | Sr 5 | 6-7 | 4-star 111 | 25 | 26 | 9 | 0.9 | 42% | 39% | 65% | 1.3 | Washington Transfer. | ||
Lawson Lovering C | Jr | 7-1 | 4-star 64 | 21 | 18 | 7 | 9.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 57% | 29% | 6% | 1.1 | From Colorado |
Ben Carlson F | Sr | 6-9 | 4-star 107 | 25 | 18 | 6 | 9.1 | 0.3 | 47% | 38% | 56% | 0.4 | 2 Yrs Wisc. Started every game last year. 1 game this year. | |
Hunter Erickson G | Sr | 6-3 | 3-star 239 | 25 | 19 | 4 | 2,2 | 42% | 30% | 51% | 1.9 | From BYU, arch rival via SLC CC Bruins. | ||
Jake Wahlin F | Fr | 6-10 | 3-star 148 | 11 | 8 | 10.7 | 1.4 | 23% | 1.3 | Orinally commited to BYU. | ||||
Branden Carlson is probably the best college center in the Pac-12. He leads the Utes in points, rebounds and blocks. He can score from inside. He can score from outside. He has been a five-year starter for Utah.
Gabe Madsen loves to shoot the three. 2/3rds of his shots are threes. He takes easy ones. He takes hard ones. Quite a few go in. He's Coach Smith's security blanket. He plays more minutes than anyone else.
Utah got lucky in a court case they weren't even a party to. Transfer Deivon Smith was sitting out a year due to his second transfer, until a judge decided to invalidate that NCAA rule. Then their PG Rollie Wooster went down with an injury and hasn't played for over a month. Smith has done a good job of filling in, but the Utes have gone 3-6 without Wooster.
Smith is VERY quick and is a FAR bigger threat to drive to the hoop. He is a decent 3-point shooter, but doesn't take a lot of them. In Wooster's absence, he leads the team in assists. He will be Dylan Andrews' latest challenge.
Rollie Wooster has the 4th best A/TO ratio in the Pac-12.
Keba Keita is a terrific athlete and a very quick leaper. He is outstanding on the boards. He sets solid screens, and he has some offensive skills.
Cole Bajema transferred from Washingon. He's another guy who shoots a lot of threes. He mostly makes them when he is open in the corner. We should guard him there.
Lawson Lovering was a full-time starter at Colorado. I wondered why he transferred to Utah to play behind Brandon Carlson, but he has been starting next to Carlson -- until recently. Now he is coming off the bench. Next season Brandon Carlson will be gone. Maybe Lovering can start then. He has skills around the basket, and shoots the occasional three. He doesn't shoot the three very well.
Ben Carlson transferred from Wisconsin, just to give the Utes two B. Carlsons. He started every game last season. He has started 1 game this season. I don't know why. He seems like a solid glue guy. He is another member of the "shoots a lot of threes" club.
Hunter Erickson is the 4th member of the team whose name ends in "son" or "sen". He would be another good PG, except his shooting isn't very good.
Jake Wahlin signed with BYU and took a mission. When he came back, he switched to Utah. Those teams didn't like each other to start with. Just what they needed. Another reason to hate each other. They'll have fun in the Big 12 together. Wahlin can rebound, but he can't shoot.
CONCLUSION
A Tale of Two Teams
"They are the best of teams; they are worst of teams."
This could apply to UCLA before and after we started winning. It could also apply to Utah at home and on the road.
Our first meeting was a matchup between good Utah and bad UCLA. It was ugly.
This looks like a matchup between good UCLA and bad Utah. I like that matchup. Utah just isn't the same team on the road.
Hopefully, it will be a far, far better thing that we do, than we have ever done.
Go Bruins!