Post by mhbruin on Feb 13, 2024 13:13:57 GMT -8
With a one-day turnaround, I haven't had too much time to work on this. That may show.
WTF happened to Oregon? They were 13-3, and 5-0 in the conference, even through they were missing their two 5-star centers. They were breezing to the Pac-12 title, and their 7-footers were coming back.
Since then they have gone 7-7. 6 of those 7 losses were to teams in the top half of the league, including a 71-63 loss to the Bruins.
They Ducks are still tied for first place in Pac-12.
METRICS
The Bruins opened 3.5-point underdogs.
RECORDS
Oregon's worst losses are to Cal (#124), UCLA (#115) and Stanford (#114). Their best wins are road wins over the Washington schools.
This is a Quad 2 game for both teams.
Not much difference here.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON'S DEFENSE
Oregon will press quite a bit. They don't generate a ton of turnovers off the press, but we are a slow team. We are not likely to punish the press with fast-break baskets.
Oregon's defense is consistently mediocre. Although they are blocking more shots since Dante returned, nothing else on their defense seems much better.
In particular, they allow teams to shoot a high percentage, particularly from the arc. For a good part of the season, I would have said we were ill-equipped to take advantage of their weak three-point defense. However, in the last 6 weeks, we have been shooting much better from the outside.
Advantage: Oregon, but not by a lot.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS OREGON'S OFFENSE
This is strength on strength. An excellent offense against an excellent defense. They shoot really well. We are really good at holding teams to a low percentage.
In particular, they shoot the three really well. We are much better at defending the two than the three. They don't shoot an exorbidant number of threes, but they shoot quite a few and at a high rate. The key to the whole game may be their three-point shooting and our defense of the arc.
Advantage: Oregon, but small.
OTHER FACTORS
UCLA has a bit of an advantage on the boards. We are one of the taller teams in college basketball, and they are one of the shorter teams, so we should have a solid advantage on the boards. (I don't know why Cronin keeps talking about their size being a problem.)
Oregon is a better ball-handling team than we are.
Oregon plays faster than we do, but they don't run much.
Neither team uses their bench that much. With all the injuries, Oregon doesn't have that much of a bench.
Advantage: Oregon, but small.
PLAYERS
Players
Dana Altman seems to continue to be haunted by the injury curse. In addition to Dante and Bittle missing most of the season, Jesse Zarzuela, Keeshawn Barthelemy, and Mookie Cook are out for the rest of the season. In their last game, the Ducks played 7 players, if you don't count 4 minutes for DIawara.
Those seven players include three 5-star recruits, so they definitely have talent.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Look at the A/TO column. They don't have a single PG with an astronomical ratio, but everyone except Dante and Diawara are solid ball-handlers. This is a verstile team where anyone can shoot or pass. They assist on almost 50% their baskets.
When it comes to three-point shooting, everyone, excpet Danted and Diawara are capable of hitting ther three. Evans is the only one shooting less than 34%. Also, all those guys shoot quite a few threes.
Also, just about everyone is capable of beating us with the dribble. Oregon is a hard team to defend.
Cousinard does everything pretty well and he is having an excellent season. He leads the team in scoring and steals. However, his shooting has fallen off later in the season. He has shot over 41% only once in the last 12 games. However, in that good-shooting game, he scored 39 points, so he remains dangerous. When we beat them we held him to 6 ooints.
Dante seems to finally be healthy. He is their second leading scorer, without shooting threes, he doesn't take a ton of shots. If he had enough attempts, he would be 3rd in the country in FG%, ahead of Oumar Ballo, Donovan Clingan, and Zach Edey.
Shelstad is having a very strong freshman campaign, leading the team in scoring. IHe made the Pac-12 ALl-Freshman team. He has scored in double-figures 12 times this year and leads the team in assists. He scored 20 against us in our first meeting, but only 10 in the second.
Kario Oquendo LOVES driving to the hoop. He is very quick for his size and he gets to the rim with a frequency that Sebastian Mack can only dream about. That is why a 6-4 guy is shooting 48%. He is also a very good 3-point shooter, so you have to respect the his outside shot. He a really good athlete and outstanding leaper.
Kwame Evans is their other star freshman. Even though he only plays 22 minutes per game, he leads the team in rebounds and blocks. He is also #2 on the team in steals. At this point, he isn't a big-time scorer, but he has skills.
Brennan Rigsby is no relation to Eleanor Rigby, and he shoots much better than Eleanor. He is a very solid backup PG. He will occasionally score in double figures.
Jadrian Tracey has started 7 games for the Ducks this season. He is a solid, experienced guard who can score.
Mahamadou Diawara transferred from the Stetson Hatters, but he is not all hat and no cattle. Sometimes he looks a bit lost out there, but he is capable of scoring a little, and he provides good rebounding and defense.
CONCLUSION
In the first meeting of these two teams, Shelstad outscored Dylan 20-7, and the Ducks won by 6. In the rematch, Dylan outscored him 21-10 and the Bruins won by 8.
It seems like we are going to need to shoot well to win.
When teams shoot over 40% from the three-point line the Ducks are 4-8, and 16-3 when they hold teams below 40%.
In our loss to Oregon, we shot 3 of 19 from outside. In our win we were 6 of 12.
I expect Oregon to put quite a bit of effort into defending the three-point line in this game. With Dante, they will probably not double Bona. Adem needs to punish them for that.
Will we have tired legs? Will we be able to shoot well from outside with tired legs? That should decide the game.
Go Bruins!
WTF happened to Oregon? They were 13-3, and 5-0 in the conference, even through they were missing their two 5-star centers. They were breezing to the Pac-12 title, and their 7-footers were coming back.
Since then they have gone 7-7. 6 of those 7 losses were to teams in the top half of the league, including a 71-63 loss to the Bruins.
They Ducks are still tied for first place in Pac-12.
METRICS
| UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
| KenPom | 40% | 66-68 (-2) |
| Torvick | 41% | 65-67 (-2) |
| Warren Nolan | 69-70 (-1) | |
| ESPN | 35% |
The Bruins opened 3.5-point underdogs.
| OREGON | UCLA | |
| NET | 68 | 115 |
| KenPom Rank | 51 | 99 |
| Torvick Rank | 57 | 95 |
| SOS | 46 | 48 |
| Record | 20-11 | 16-16 |
RECORDS
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 1-9 | 6-2 | 3-4 | 5-1 |
| Oregon | 2-6 | 4-4 | 8-1 | 6-0 |
Oregon's worst losses are to Cal (#124), UCLA (#115) and Stanford (#114). Their best wins are road wins over the Washington schools.
This is a Quad 2 game for both teams.
| UCLA Road | 5-6 |
| UCLA Neutral | 1-3 |
| Oregon Road | 6-5 |
| Oregon Neutral | 1-3 |
Not much difference here.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON'S DEFENSE
Oregon will press quite a bit. They don't generate a ton of turnovers off the press, but we are a slow team. We are not likely to punish the press with fast-break baskets.
Oregon Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 91 | 168 |
| Torvick Rank | 88 | 2156 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 73 | 66 |
| FG Percent | 46% (291) | 42% (308) |
| Effective FG Percent | (256) | (325) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 35% (252) | 34% (188) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 36% (112) | 30% (332) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 52% (234) | 45% (345) |
| FT Percent | 73% (117) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 27% (103) | 31% (115) |
| Assist Percent | 36% (112) | 50% (173) Improved |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 18% (123) | 18% (219) |
| Block Percent | 10% (147) | 7% (20) |
Oregon's defense is consistently mediocre. Although they are blocking more shots since Dante returned, nothing else on their defense seems much better.
In particular, they allow teams to shoot a high percentage, particularly from the arc. For a good part of the season, I would have said we were ill-equipped to take advantage of their weak three-point defense. However, in the last 6 weeks, we have been shooting much better from the outside.
Advantage: Oregon, but not by a lot.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS OREGON'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Oregon Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 44 | 55 |
| Torvick Rank | 44 | 41 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 65 | 78 |
| FG Percent | 41% (41) | 47% (83) |
| Effective FG Percent | 50% (167) | 54% (57) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 34% (204) | 38% (26) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 44% (338) | 38% (166) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 50% (139) | 52% (116) |
| FT Percent | 71% (220) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 28% (128) | 29% (200) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 19% (93) | 15% (54) |
| Block Percent | 12% (65) | 10% (243) |
This is strength on strength. An excellent offense against an excellent defense. They shoot really well. We are really good at holding teams to a low percentage.
In particular, they shoot the three really well. We are much better at defending the two than the three. They don't shoot an exorbidant number of threes, but they shoot quite a few and at a high rate. The key to the whole game may be their three-point shooting and our defense of the arc.
Advantage: Oregon, but small.
OTHER FACTORS
| Oregon | UCLA | |
| Rebound Margin | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Turnover Margin | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.3 (84) | 1.0 (224) |
| Tempo | 184 | 351 out of 362 |
| D-1 Experience | 169 | 320 |
| Continuity | 256 | 290 |
| Average Height | 250 | 40 |
| Bench Minutes | 267 | 261 |
UCLA has a bit of an advantage on the boards. We are one of the taller teams in college basketball, and they are one of the shorter teams, so we should have a solid advantage on the boards. (I don't know why Cronin keeps talking about their size being a problem.)
Oregon is a better ball-handling team than we are.
Oregon plays faster than we do, but they don't run much.
Neither team uses their bench that much. With all the injuries, Oregon doesn't have that much of a bench.
Advantage: Oregon, but small.
PLAYERS
Players
Dana Altman seems to continue to be haunted by the injury curse. In addition to Dante and Bittle missing most of the season, Jesse Zarzuela, Keeshawn Barthelemy, and Mookie Cook are out for the rest of the season. In their last game, the Ducks played 7 players, if you don't count 4 minutes for DIawara.
Those seven players include three 5-star recruits, so they definitely have talent.
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebs / 40 Min. | Assists | Blks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | Notes | |
| Jermaine Couisnard G | Sr 5 | 6-4 | 3-star 218 | 31 | 32 | 15 | 2.9 | 40% | 34% | 44% | 1.7 | |||
| N'Faly Dante C | Sr 5 | 6-11 | 5-star 24 | 17 | 30 | 15 | 11.7 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 68% | 0.6 | May have a year of eligibiluty left after this year. | ||
| Jackson Shelstad G | Fr | 6-0 | 5-star 24 | 27 | 33 | 13 | 3.0 | 46% | 35% | 41% | 1.6 | |||
| From Central Michigan | ||||||||||||||
| Jadrian Tracey G | Jr | 6-5 | 3-star 444 | 31 | 26 | 8 | 1.6 | 42% | 36% | 44% | 1.3 | Transfer from St. Joseph's | ||
| Kwame Evans Jr. F | Fr | 6-9 | 5-star 15 | 31 | 22 | 8 | 9.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 45% | 30% | 37% | 1.4 | |
| Kario Oquendo G | Sr | 6-4 | Unranked | 31 | 18 | 8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 48% | 37% | 35% | 1.6 | From Georgia | |
| Brennan Rigsby G | Jr | 6-3 | #2 JUCO | 31 | 23 | 7 | 1.3 | 41% | 38% | 52% | 1.7 | |||
| Mahamadou Diawara F | Sr 5 | 6-10 | 3-star 176 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 10.4 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 50% | 0.7 | Transfer from the Stetson Hatters | ||
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Look at the A/TO column. They don't have a single PG with an astronomical ratio, but everyone except Dante and Diawara are solid ball-handlers. This is a verstile team where anyone can shoot or pass. They assist on almost 50% their baskets.
When it comes to three-point shooting, everyone, excpet Danted and Diawara are capable of hitting ther three. Evans is the only one shooting less than 34%. Also, all those guys shoot quite a few threes.
Also, just about everyone is capable of beating us with the dribble. Oregon is a hard team to defend.
Cousinard does everything pretty well and he is having an excellent season. He leads the team in scoring and steals. However, his shooting has fallen off later in the season. He has shot over 41% only once in the last 12 games. However, in that good-shooting game, he scored 39 points, so he remains dangerous. When we beat them we held him to 6 ooints.
Dante seems to finally be healthy. He is their second leading scorer, without shooting threes, he doesn't take a ton of shots. If he had enough attempts, he would be 3rd in the country in FG%, ahead of Oumar Ballo, Donovan Clingan, and Zach Edey.
Shelstad is having a very strong freshman campaign, leading the team in scoring. IHe made the Pac-12 ALl-Freshman team. He has scored in double-figures 12 times this year and leads the team in assists. He scored 20 against us in our first meeting, but only 10 in the second.
Kario Oquendo LOVES driving to the hoop. He is very quick for his size and he gets to the rim with a frequency that Sebastian Mack can only dream about. That is why a 6-4 guy is shooting 48%. He is also a very good 3-point shooter, so you have to respect the his outside shot. He a really good athlete and outstanding leaper.
Kwame Evans is their other star freshman. Even though he only plays 22 minutes per game, he leads the team in rebounds and blocks. He is also #2 on the team in steals. At this point, he isn't a big-time scorer, but he has skills.
Brennan Rigsby is no relation to Eleanor Rigby, and he shoots much better than Eleanor. He is a very solid backup PG. He will occasionally score in double figures.
Jadrian Tracey has started 7 games for the Ducks this season. He is a solid, experienced guard who can score.
Mahamadou Diawara transferred from the Stetson Hatters, but he is not all hat and no cattle. Sometimes he looks a bit lost out there, but he is capable of scoring a little, and he provides good rebounding and defense.
CONCLUSION
In the first meeting of these two teams, Shelstad outscored Dylan 20-7, and the Ducks won by 6. In the rematch, Dylan outscored him 21-10 and the Bruins won by 8.
It seems like we are going to need to shoot well to win.
| Opponent Shooting % | Oregon Record |
| 49% or higher | 3-8 |
| 48% or less | 17-3 |
When teams shoot over 40% from the three-point line the Ducks are 4-8, and 16-3 when they hold teams below 40%.
In our loss to Oregon, we shot 3 of 19 from outside. In our win we were 6 of 12.
I expect Oregon to put quite a bit of effort into defending the three-point line in this game. With Dante, they will probably not double Bona. Adem needs to punish them for that.
Will we have tired legs? Will we be able to shoot well from outside with tired legs? That should decide the game.
Go Bruins!