Post by mhbruin on Feb 10, 2024 20:54:14 GMT -8
After a road sweep, the third-place Bruins, who have no shot at an at-large bid, return home to face a team that does have an outside shot of an at-lage bid. Colorado is the only Pac-12 team we haven't played yet.
The Buffs are currently tied for 5th place with Stanford, one game behind the Bruins and Ducks.
METRICS
ESPN finally believes in us. Barely. They give us a 50.5% chance of winning.
Warren Nolan also picks a UCLA win. He predicts we win our next 3 games and go 1-3 to finish out the season.
The computer rankings LOVE the Buffaloes. If good computer numbers get you a bid, Colorado is a lock. However, there is that other thing: the resume.
RECORDS
Colorado's has some good wins over Washington, Washington State, and Miami, although only WSU is likely to go dancing. The Buffs have no great wins. The Buffs have no terrible losses. Their worst losses are to Arizona State, Cal, and Florida State. In Quad 3 and Quad 4 games, they never won by fewer than 10 points.
Colorado has lost 3 of their last 4, but those losses were at Washington State, at Utah, and against Arizona. None of those are bad losses.
This will be a Quad 2 game if we win, and a Quad 1 game if we lose.
If we win and Colorado does well the rest of the season, it could turn into a Quad 1 win for us. So after Thursday, "Go Buffs!" Particularly since they play USC next.
This will be a Quad 2 game for the Buffaloes.
Apparenlty Buffaloes don't roam well. Colorado is 13-1 in Boulder and 1-6 on the road. Maybe the air is too thick for them at sea level.
Their only road win was at Washington. Washington is the 10th place team in the Pac-12, but that is a Quad 1 win for Colorado. Go figure.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS COLORADO'S DEFENSE
Tad Boyle has had some excellent defensive teams in Boulder. This one is good, but not up to his usual standards. The only thing they are exceptional at is protecting their defensive board. They give up very few offensive rebounds. They are NOT very good at creating turnovers or blocking shots.
Here's the problem for the Buffs. Their defense doesn't travel so well. They hold teams to 44% on the year, but only 48% on the road.
Some of us thought the Bruins had turned a corner on offense, If we did, something must have terrified us as we came onto the court at halftime in Berkely, because we turned around and went back around that corner. We turned back into the gang that can't shoot straight.
Advantage: Colorado, but not that big. I would give them a big edge at home, but not at Pauley.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS COLORADO'S OFFENSE
Colorado is one of the best offenses in the country. They are second to only Arizona in the Pac-12.
They are #11 in the country at 3-point shooting, but they don't rely heavily on three-point shots. They do most of their damage inside the arc and at the free throw line.
They are one of the best in the counrty at free-throw shooting, and they get to the line quite a bit. They are #76 in free throw attempts per game.
The game will probably be decided at this end of the floor. They average 49% shooting. We hold teams to 41%. Here is how Colorado does based on shooting.
Only three teams have shot 50% or higher from the floor against us. The Buffaloes shoot 52% at home, but only 47% on the road.
Advantage: Even or slight edge to UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
The Buffs are a tall team and very good on the boards. They are also very good at taking care of the ball. We have been winning by getting more rebound and committing fewer turnovers.
We need to limit their possessions and their free throws. The Buffs average 4 more free throws.
They like to play fast. We need to get back on defense. We are still SLOW, but we don't give up a lot of fast-break baskets.
PLAYERS
In previous seasons, Tad Boyle has played a lot of players. This year most of the minutes are going to 7 guys: 4 seniors, 2 juniors and one freshman. 5 of the 7 were playing for the Buffs last season, so they are mature, experienced, and used to playing together. In short they are everything UCLA isn't, at least in those areas.
They have five guys who average double figures, three guys in the rotation who shoot over 40% from the arc, and three guys who shoot over 50% overall.
KJ Simpson is have in a great season, and will be first-team All-Pac-12. If the Buffs were winning more, he would be in contention for conference player of the year.
He leads the team in scoring, assists, and steals. He is #3 in the league in scoring, He leads the Pac-12 in FT%, and he is almost a 50%/40%/90% shooter, which is outstanding. He has an excellent A/TO ratio, and he is a good rebounder for his size. In short, he does everything very well.
Tristan da Silva seems like he has been at Colorado forever, however, it has only been 4 years. Maybe it seems longer because there has been a da Silva in the league since 2017. He has been a starter since his sophomore year and was All-Pac-12 last season. He is one of those guys who quietly does everything well, including shoot the three, even if his 38% is the worst among the rotation players. He leads the team in blocked shots.
Cody Williams is the highest-rated freshman to ever play for Colorado. He has been slowed a bit by injury. Some people think he is not having a great year, but he is mostly not forcing things. He is still shooting 56% / 47% / 71%. Nobody on UCLA comes close.
If J'Vonne Hadley has a good game, you might ask, "Who was the masked man?"
Hadley has scored up to 24 points in a game. He is a good rebounder and passer. He is an excellent three-point shooter, but he only shoots around 1 per game.
Eddie Lampkin Jr. can score from anywhere on the court --- as long as he is within three feet of the basket. He is big, strong, and crafty near the hoop. He is an excellent rebounder. However, he is not a great athlete and he won't block a lot of shots.
Julian Hammond III is another good three-point shooter off the bench. Almost half his shots are threes.
Luke O'Brien is still not related to country singer Luke Bryan. For a long time I thought he wore the number zero, because he had zero talent (just like Luke Bryan), but he has turned into a solid player. He is often forced to play center when the Buffs go small, but he is really a stretch four. He will shoot quite a few threes.
CONCLUSION
Oh, we'll play at home,
Make the Buffaloes roam
Where the Bruins and no antelopes play
Where often is heard
A discouraging word,
But our defense will cause them dismany.
Generally the Buffaloes have been good under Tad Boyle, but not too good. They have been in the top half of the league in 9 of 12 seasons, but they have never finished higher than 3rd. They are currently tied for 5th with Stanfod. Typical.
Under Boyle, they have been to 5 NCAA tournaments, and they have two tournament wins in his 12 seasons.
By Colorado standards, that makes him a great coach. He has the best winning percentage for a Buffs coach since Frosty Cox, who coached there from 1936 to 1950. I don't remember him either.
This was supposed to be Tad Boyle's best team in Boulder, and they are a very good offensive team. They started the season 11-2, but the results since then have been disappointing.
It seems like this is what we need to do to win:
Colorado is talented, but their road record stands out like a sore thumb. I like our chances.
Go Bruins!
The Buffs are currently tied for 5th place with Stanford, one game behind the Bruins and Ducks.
METRICS
UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
KenPom | 42% | 67-69 (-2) |
Torvick | 42% | 64-68 (-2) |
Warren Nolan | 71-67 (+4) | |
ESPN | 51% |
ESPN finally believes in us. Barely. They give us a 50.5% chance of winning.
Warren Nolan also picks a UCLA win. He predicts we win our next 3 games and go 1-3 to finish out the season.
Colorado | UCLA | |
NET | 31 | 117 |
KenPom Rank | 34 | 91 |
Torvick Rank | 34 | 94 |
SOS | 60 | 44 |
Record | 16-8 | 12-11 |
The computer rankings LOVE the Buffaloes. If good computer numbers get you a bid, Colorado is a lock. However, there is that other thing: the resume.
RECORDS
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 0-6 | 6-1 | 1-3 | 5-1 |
Colorado | 1-5 | 5-3 | 3-0 | 7-0 |
Colorado's has some good wins over Washington, Washington State, and Miami, although only WSU is likely to go dancing. The Buffs have no great wins. The Buffs have no terrible losses. Their worst losses are to Arizona State, Cal, and Florida State. In Quad 3 and Quad 4 games, they never won by fewer than 10 points.
Colorado has lost 3 of their last 4, but those losses were at Washington State, at Utah, and against Arizona. None of those are bad losses.
This will be a Quad 2 game if we win, and a Quad 1 game if we lose.
If we win and Colorado does well the rest of the season, it could turn into a Quad 1 win for us. So after Thursday, "Go Buffs!" Particularly since they play USC next.
This will be a Quad 2 game for the Buffaloes.
UCLA Home | 7-4 |
Colorado Road | 1-6 |
Apparenlty Buffaloes don't roam well. Colorado is 13-1 in Boulder and 1-6 on the road. Maybe the air is too thick for them at sea level.
Their only road win was at Washington. Washington is the 10th place team in the Pac-12, but that is a Quad 1 win for Colorado. Go figure.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS COLORADO'S DEFENSE
Colorado Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 56 | 175 |
Torvick Rank | 55 | 188 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 72 | 66 |
FG Percent | 44% (187) | 42% (306) |
Effective FG Percent | (142) | (327) |
3-Pt Percent | 34% (194) | 33% (239) |
3-Pt Rate | 35% (103) | 29% (340) |
2-Pt Percent | 49% (117) | 45% (341) |
FT Percent | 72% (161) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 24% (8) | 31% (118) |
Assist Percent | 42% (15) | 49% (217) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 16% (245) | 17% (169) |
Block Percent | 6% (329) | 7% (20) |
Tad Boyle has had some excellent defensive teams in Boulder. This one is good, but not up to his usual standards. The only thing they are exceptional at is protecting their defensive board. They give up very few offensive rebounds. They are NOT very good at creating turnovers or blocking shots.
Here's the problem for the Buffs. Their defense doesn't travel so well. They hold teams to 44% on the year, but only 48% on the road.
Some of us thought the Bruins had turned a corner on offense, If we did, something must have terrified us as we came onto the court at halftime in Berkely, because we turned around and went back around that corner. We turned back into the gang that can't shoot straight.
Advantage: Colorado, but not that big. I would give them a big edge at home, but not at Pauley.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS COLORADO'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Colorado Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 29 | 30 |
Torvick Rank | 31 | 34 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 64 | 81 |
FG Percent | 41% (48) | 49% (13) |
Effective FG Percent | (91) | 55% (29) |
3-Pt Percent | 32% (98) | 39% (11) |
3-Pt Rate | 43% (338) | 30% (333) |
2-Pt Percent | 49% (108) | 54% (62) |
FT Percent | 79% (5) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 27% (107) | 30% (141) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 19% (90) | 32% (71) |
Block Percent | 11% (85) | 8% (97) |
Colorado is one of the best offenses in the country. They are second to only Arizona in the Pac-12.
They are #11 in the country at 3-point shooting, but they don't rely heavily on three-point shots. They do most of their damage inside the arc and at the free throw line.
They are one of the best in the counrty at free-throw shooting, and they get to the line quite a bit. They are #76 in free throw attempts per game.
The game will probably be decided at this end of the floor. They average 49% shooting. We hold teams to 41%. Here is how Colorado does based on shooting.
Field Goal Percent | Record |
Less than 50% | 5-7 |
50% or higher | 11-1 |
Only three teams have shot 50% or higher from the floor against us. The Buffaloes shoot 52% at home, but only 47% on the road.
Advantage: Even or slight edge to UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
Colorado | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | 8.1 | 3.5 |
Turnover Margin | 3.6 | -0.8 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.2 (123) | 1.0 (246) |
Tempo | 91 | 338 |
D-1 Experience | 191 | 318 |
Continuity | 58 | 293 |
Average Height | 15 | 39 |
Bench Minutes | 302 | 252 |
The Buffs are a tall team and very good on the boards. They are also very good at taking care of the ball. We have been winning by getting more rebound and committing fewer turnovers.
We need to limit their possessions and their free throws. The Buffs average 4 more free throws.
They like to play fast. We need to get back on defense. We are still SLOW, but we don't give up a lot of fast-break baskets.
PLAYERS
In previous seasons, Tad Boyle has played a lot of players. This year most of the minutes are going to 7 guys: 4 seniors, 2 juniors and one freshman. 5 of the 7 were playing for the Buffs last season, so they are mature, experienced, and used to playing together. In short they are everything UCLA isn't, at least in those areas.
They have five guys who average double figures, three guys in the rotation who shoot over 40% from the arc, and three guys who shoot over 50% overall.
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | Notes | |
KJ Simpson G | Jr | 6-2 | 4-star, 86 | 24 | 33 | 19 | 7 | 4.6 | 49% | 43% | 31% | 2.1 | ||
Tristan da Silva F | Sr | 6-9 | Unranked | 21 | 33 | 16 | 7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 48% | 38% | 41% | 1.3 | |
Cody Williams F | Fr | 6-8 | 5-star #7 | 15 | 30 | 14 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 56% | 47% | 22% | 1.0 | ||
J'Vonne Hadley G | Sr | 6-6 | JUCO | 23 | 32 | 12 | 7 | 2.1 | 56% | 44% | 15% | 1.8 | ||
Eddie Lampkin Jr. C | Sr | 6-11 | 3-star 316 | 24 | 27 | 10 | 11 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 55% | 0.8 | From TCU | ||
Julian Hammond III G | Jr | 6-2 | 3-star 234 | 22 | 22 | 8 | 2.0 | 45% | 41% | 48% | 1.2 | |||
Luke O'Brien G | Sr | 6-8 | 3-star 419 | 22 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 45% | 39% | 40% | 1.4 | |
Javon Ruffin G | So | 6-5 | 3-star 201 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 0.7 | 29% | 15% | 62% | 0.6 | ||
Bangot Dak F | Fr | 6-11 | Unranked | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0.4 | 33% | 29% | 39% | 1.3 | |||
Assane Diop F | Fr | 6-8 | 4-star 97 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 0.4 | 42% | 26% | 0.7 | ||||
KJ Simpson is have in a great season, and will be first-team All-Pac-12. If the Buffs were winning more, he would be in contention for conference player of the year.
He leads the team in scoring, assists, and steals. He is #3 in the league in scoring, He leads the Pac-12 in FT%, and he is almost a 50%/40%/90% shooter, which is outstanding. He has an excellent A/TO ratio, and he is a good rebounder for his size. In short, he does everything very well.
Tristan da Silva seems like he has been at Colorado forever, however, it has only been 4 years. Maybe it seems longer because there has been a da Silva in the league since 2017. He has been a starter since his sophomore year and was All-Pac-12 last season. He is one of those guys who quietly does everything well, including shoot the three, even if his 38% is the worst among the rotation players. He leads the team in blocked shots.
Cody Williams is the highest-rated freshman to ever play for Colorado. He has been slowed a bit by injury. Some people think he is not having a great year, but he is mostly not forcing things. He is still shooting 56% / 47% / 71%. Nobody on UCLA comes close.
If J'Vonne Hadley has a good game, you might ask, "Who was the masked man?"
Hadley has scored up to 24 points in a game. He is a good rebounder and passer. He is an excellent three-point shooter, but he only shoots around 1 per game.
Eddie Lampkin Jr. can score from anywhere on the court --- as long as he is within three feet of the basket. He is big, strong, and crafty near the hoop. He is an excellent rebounder. However, he is not a great athlete and he won't block a lot of shots.
Julian Hammond III is another good three-point shooter off the bench. Almost half his shots are threes.
Luke O'Brien is still not related to country singer Luke Bryan. For a long time I thought he wore the number zero, because he had zero talent (just like Luke Bryan), but he has turned into a solid player. He is often forced to play center when the Buffs go small, but he is really a stretch four. He will shoot quite a few threes.
CONCLUSION
Oh, we'll play at home,
Make the Buffaloes roam
Where the Bruins and no antelopes play
Where often is heard
A discouraging word,
But our defense will cause them dismany.
Generally the Buffaloes have been good under Tad Boyle, but not too good. They have been in the top half of the league in 9 of 12 seasons, but they have never finished higher than 3rd. They are currently tied for 5th with Stanfod. Typical.
Under Boyle, they have been to 5 NCAA tournaments, and they have two tournament wins in his 12 seasons.
By Colorado standards, that makes him a great coach. He has the best winning percentage for a Buffs coach since Frosty Cox, who coached there from 1936 to 1950. I don't remember him either.
This was supposed to be Tad Boyle's best team in Boulder, and they are a very good offensive team. They started the season 11-2, but the results since then have been disappointing.
It seems like this is what we need to do to win:
- Make the Buffaloes play on the road. CHECK!
- Hold them to under 50% shooting. Only three teams have shot 50% or better against us.
- Don't shoot like we did against Cal. As mentioned, their defense isn't as good on the road.
Colorado is talented, but their road record stands out like a sore thumb. I like our chances.
Go Bruins!