Post by mhbruin on Feb 9, 2024 14:09:29 GMT -8
Some optimistic posters on BruinZone seem to think that if we finish the season strong, we will be a bubble team. That looks like pure fantasy to me.
Looking ahead to the rest of our regular season schedule, we have 8 games. We have two Quad 1 opportunities, and three Quad 2 games. We will be underdogs in all of them.
We have three Quad 3 games, and we should likely be favored in two of them.
Below you can see 1) where we stand today, 2) where we would stand if we win the rest of our regular season games, and how we compare to the two teams Lunardi says are the last two in.
In the unlikely event that we win the rest of our games, we would be 9-7 in the first two quads, which is respectable. However, we would still be 9-4 in the bottom two quads, and 4 losses in the bottom two quads is pretty terrible
Let's look at the actual last four into the 2023 tournament, the #11 seeds who played in the First Four:
Notice that they all had at least four Quad 1 wins. We have no chance of achieving that unless we win the Pac-12 tournament. They all had at most two losses in the bottom two quads. We have four of them.
Bottom line is we don't have an at-large profile. And this assumes winning out which is VERY, VERY unlikely.
However, if we did win out, we would have won 12 straight regular season games and 14 of 15. It would be an interesting scenario to see what the committee would do if we ended the season as the hottest team in college basketball, but without a tournament worthy resume.
Looking ahead to the rest of our regular season schedule, we have 8 games. We have two Quad 1 opportunities, and three Quad 2 games. We will be underdogs in all of them.
We have three Quad 3 games, and we should likely be favored in two of them.
| KENPOM RANK | OPPONENT NET | QUAD | KENPOM WIN % | TORVICK WIN % | ESPN WIN % | |||||
| @california | 106 | 121 | 3 | 44% | 34% | 41% | ||||
| Colorado | 27 | 31 | 2 | 39% | 38% | 48% | ||||
| Utah | 41 | 36 | 2 | 44% | 40% | 44% | ||||
| USC | 94 | 100 | 3 | 63% | 62% | 56% | ||||
| @ Washington | 61 | 72 | 2 | 29% | 25% | 18% | ||||
| @ washington St | 42 | 41 | 1 | 24% | 19% | 17% | ||||
| Arizona | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20% | 19% | 12% | ||||
| Arizona St | 128 | 136 | 3 | 72% | 27% | 75% | ||||
Below you can see 1) where we stand today, 2) where we would stand if we win the rest of our regular season games, and how we compare to the two teams Lunardi says are the last two in.
| NET | QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA Today | 117 | 0-6 | 4-1 | 2-3 | 5-1 |
| UCLA Wins Out | 2-6 | 7-1 | 4-3 | 5-1 | |
| Cincinnati | 32 | 2-5 | 2-1 | 3-1 | 8-0 |
| Seton Hall | 67 | 4-4 | 1-3 | 2-1 | 8-0 |
In the unlikely event that we win the rest of our games, we would be 9-7 in the first two quads, which is respectable. However, we would still be 9-4 in the bottom two quads, and 4 losses in the bottom two quads is pretty terrible
Let's look at the actual last four into the 2023 tournament, the #11 seeds who played in the First Four:
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| Mississippi St | 4-8 | 4-4 | 5-1 | 8-0 |
| Pittsburgh | 6-5 | 3-5 | 5-1 | 10-1 |
| Arizona State | 6-7 | 4-5 | 5-0 | 8-1 |
| Nevada | 4-5 | 3-4 | 11-2 | 3-0 |
Notice that they all had at least four Quad 1 wins. We have no chance of achieving that unless we win the Pac-12 tournament. They all had at most two losses in the bottom two quads. We have four of them.
Bottom line is we don't have an at-large profile. And this assumes winning out which is VERY, VERY unlikely.
However, if we did win out, we would have won 12 straight regular season games and 14 of 15. It would be an interesting scenario to see what the committee would do if we ended the season as the hottest team in college basketball, but without a tournament worthy resume.