Post by mhbruin on Jan 30, 2024 16:10:03 GMT -8
WTF happened to Oregon? They were 13-3, and 5-0 in the conference, even through they were missing their two 5-star centers. They were breezing to the Pac-12 title, and their 7-footers were coming back.
Then they lost 3 of the next 5 games. Two of those losses were with Dante in the lineup. One was with both Dante and Bittle. I have heard speculation that they were better going small and they were hurt by the return of the big guys.
Not so fast! You need to look at whom they lost to. They lost two games on the road to the mountain schools, which is the toughest road trip in the Pac-12. Their other loss was to Arizona. They lost to arguably the three other best teams in the league, although Washington State might argue with them about that. (BTW, if Washington fired Mike Hopkins after the season, they should hire Kyle Smith.)
They Ducks are still tied for first place in Pac-12.
METRICS
The computers see this as a close competitive game and Warren Nolan's thinks we win the game.
The early line is Oregon -1.5, pretty close to what the comuters say.
RECORDS
Oregon's worst losses are to Santa Clara (#103) and Syracuse (#76). Their best wins are road wins over the Washington schools.
This is a Quad 2 game for both teams.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON'S DEFENSE
Oregon will press quite a bit. They don't generate a ton of turnovers off the press, but we are a slow team. We are not likely to punish the press with fast-break baskets.
Oregon's defense is consistently mediocre. Although they are blocking more shots since Dante returned, nothing else on their defense seems much better.
In particular, they allow teams to shoot a high percentage, particularly from the arc. Earlier in the year I would have said we weren't equipped to take advantage of this, but we are averaging over 7 made threes in our last 4 games, and we have been making them at a respectable 38% clip.
Basically, how you view this matchup depends on whether you trust the season-long statistics more or the recent game stats. I don't like to fall prey to recency bias, but we genuinely look like we are executing much better on offense.
Advantage: I would give the edge to Oregon. You don't have to.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS OREGON'S OFFENSE
This is strength on strength. An excellent offense against an excellent defense. The shoot really well. We are really good at holding teams to a low percentage.
In particular, they shoot the three really well. We are much better at defending the two than the three. They don't shoot an exorbidant number of threes, but they shoot quite a few and at a high rate. The key to the whole game may be their three-point shooting and our defense of the arc.
Advantage: Oregon, but small.
OTHER FACTORS
UCLA has a bit of an advantage on the boards. We are one of the taller teams in college basketball, and they are one of the shorter teams, so we should have a solid advantage on the boards.
It may see surprising that a team that often playes two 7-footers at the same time isn't a tall team, but due to injury, the tall guys haven't played all that much.
Oregon is a better ball-handling team than we are, yet somehow their turnover margin isn't very good.
Oregon plays faster than we do, but they don't run much.
Neither team uses their bench that much. With all the injuries, Oregon doesn't have that much of a bench.
Advantage: Even
PLAYERS
Players
The Ducks combine four 5-star players with a ton of experienced, proven players from the transfer portal. In short, they are the perfect model of a modern college basketball team.
Yes that is Linda Ronstadt at the beginning of the clip.
Dana Altman seems to continue to be haunted by the injury curse. In addition to Dante and Bittle missing most of the season, Jesse Zarzuela, Keeshawn Barthelemy, and Mookie Cook are likley out for the rest of the season.
They are definitely out for our game. Zarzuela started the first 5 games of the season for the Ducks, averaging 10 points, before an injry ended his season. Highly-rated freshman Cook has only played in 5 games for a total of 32 mintues due to a recurring injury.
Also Nate Bittle missed their last game against USC. He is questionable for the UCLA game. Without Bittle the Ducks playes 7 players against USC, with a few minutes for Diawara.
Playing two games on the road with a 7-man rotation may mean the Ducks will be tired in the second half, particularly if they press a lot.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Look at the A/TO column. They don't have a single PG with an astronomical ratio, but everyone except Dante and Diawara are solid ball-handlers. This is a verstile team where anyone can shoot or pass. They assist on over 52% their baskets.
When it comes to three-point shooting, everyone, excpet Danted and Diawara are capable of hitting ther three. Shelstad, Oquendo, and Rigsby are all shooting over 40% and most of the rest of the shooters are over 35%. We have to guard everyone on the arc. However, just about everyone is capable of beating with the dribble. Oregon is a hard team to defend.
Cousinard has been the only player who started game 1, who has played in every game this season. He does everything well and he is having an excellent season. He leads the team in scoring and steals. He has scored in double figures in the last 11 games with three games of 20 or more. Cousinard puts opposing defenses in the blender.
Dante seems to finally be healthy. He is their second leading scorer, without shooting threes, he doesn't take a ton of shots.
Shelstad is having a very strong freshman campaign, leading the team in scoring. IHe is a contender for Pac-12 freshman of the year. He has scored in double-figures 12 times this year and leads the team in assists. He score 20 against us in our first meeting. Paging Dylan Andrews!
Kario Oquendo LOVES driving to the hoop. He is very quick for his size and he gets to the rim with a frequency that Sebastian Mack can only dream about. That is why a 6-4 guy is shooting 52%. He is also a very good 3-point shooter, so you have to respect the his outside shot. He a really good athlete and outstanding leaper.
Kwame Evans is their other star freshman. Even though he only plays 22 minutes per game, he leads the team in rebounds and blocks. He is also #2 on the team in steals. At this point, he isn't a big-time scorer, but he has skills.
Brennan Rigsby is no relation to Eleanor Rigby, and he shoots much better than Eleanor. He is a very solid backup PG. He will occasionally score in double figures.
Jadrian Tracey has started 7 games for the Duck this season. He is a solid, experienced guard who can score.
Mahamadou Diawara transferred from the Stetson Hatters, but he is not all hat and no cattle. Sometimes he looks a bit lost out there, but he is capable of scoring a little, and he provides good rebounding and defense.
CONCLUSION
Have the Bruins really turned a corner? We are about to find out. We have yet to beat a team in the top half of the league. Now we meet one of the top two teams.
Dana Altman has once againg he is capable of putting a very good team together with a bunch of new players. Oregon has a really good roster, in spite of the injuries. No matter who was on the court, they have played well.
They defintinitely can score. However, their defense is a bit suspect and their depth could be a problem.
The computers and odds-makers see this as a close game, and I have not reason to argue with them.
In our first meeting, we lost by 5 in Eugene. We shot 3 of 19 on three point shots and still kept it close. We only out-rebounded they by 4 when neither Dante or Bittle played.
I think they keys to this game are making the three, defending the three and rebounding.
I think we are a lot better than we were in our first meeting. With all the injury issues, I am not sure Oregon has improved that much.
This is a very winnable game and it would be our best win of the year.
Go Bruins!
Then they lost 3 of the next 5 games. Two of those losses were with Dante in the lineup. One was with both Dante and Bittle. I have heard speculation that they were better going small and they were hurt by the return of the big guys.
Not so fast! You need to look at whom they lost to. They lost two games on the road to the mountain schools, which is the toughest road trip in the Pac-12. Their other loss was to Arizona. They lost to arguably the three other best teams in the league, although Washington State might argue with them about that. (BTW, if Washington fired Mike Hopkins after the season, they should hire Kyle Smith.)
They Ducks are still tied for first place in Pac-12.
METRICS
UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
KenPom | 46% | 67-68 |
Torvick | 43% | 65-67 |
Warren Nolan | 70-67 | |
ESPN | 44% |
The computers see this as a close competitive game and Warren Nolan's thinks we win the game.
The early line is Oregon -1.5, pretty close to what the comuters say.
OREGON | UCLA | |
NET | 52 | 133 |
KenPom Rank | 51 | 97 |
Torvick Rank | 57 | 119 |
SOS | 46 | 48 |
Record | 15-6 | 10-11 |
RECORDS
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 0-6 | 3-1 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
Oregon | 2-4 | 2-1 | 7-1 | 4-0 |
Oregon's worst losses are to Santa Clara (#103) and Syracuse (#76). Their best wins are road wins over the Washington schools.
This is a Quad 2 game for both teams.
UCLA Home | 6-4 |
Oregon Road | 4-2 |
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON'S DEFENSE
Oregon will press quite a bit. They don't generate a ton of turnovers off the press, but we are a slow team. We are not likely to punish the press with fast-break baskets.
Oregon Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 91 | 199 |
Torvick Rank | 99 | 217 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 73 | 66 |
FG Percent | 45% (278) | 42% (308) |
Effective FG Percent | (229) | (328) |
3-Pt Percent | 35% (251) | 31% (279) |
3-Pt Rate | 36% (127) | 28% (342) |
2-Pt Percent | 51% (204) | 45% (336) |
FT Percent | 72% (161) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 19% (83) | 31% (115) |
Assist Percent | 59% (392) | 50% (173) Improved |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 19% (100) | 18% (219) |
Block Percent | 10% (126) | 7% (37) |
Oregon's defense is consistently mediocre. Although they are blocking more shots since Dante returned, nothing else on their defense seems much better.
In particular, they allow teams to shoot a high percentage, particularly from the arc. Earlier in the year I would have said we weren't equipped to take advantage of this, but we are averaging over 7 made threes in our last 4 games, and we have been making them at a respectable 38% clip.
Basically, how you view this matchup depends on whether you trust the season-long statistics more or the recent game stats. I don't like to fall prey to recency bias, but we genuinely look like we are executing much better on offense.
Advantage: I would give the edge to Oregon. You don't have to.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS OREGON'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Oregon Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 34 | 35 |
Torvick Rank | 44 | 41 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 64 | 78 |
FG Percent | 41% (41) | 47% (83) |
Effective FG Percent | 49% (87) | 54% (57) |
3-Pt Percent | 33% (143) | 38% (26) |
3-Pt Rate | 44% (338) | 38% (166) |
2-Pt Percent | 48% (75) | 52% (116) |
FT Percent | 71% (220) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 28% (128) | 29% (200) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 19% (93) | 15% (54) |
Block Percent | 12% (65) | 10% (243) |
This is strength on strength. An excellent offense against an excellent defense. The shoot really well. We are really good at holding teams to a low percentage.
In particular, they shoot the three really well. We are much better at defending the two than the three. They don't shoot an exorbidant number of threes, but they shoot quite a few and at a high rate. The key to the whole game may be their three-point shooting and our defense of the arc.
Advantage: Oregon, but small.
OTHER FACTORS
Oregon | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | 1.4 | 3.4 |
Turnover Margin | -2.6 | -0.3 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.4 (71) | 1.0 (252) |
Tempo | 184 | 341 out of 362 |
D-1 Experience | 160 | 320 |
Continuity | 261 | 290 |
Average Height | 266 | 40 |
Bench Minutes | 267 | 261 |
UCLA has a bit of an advantage on the boards. We are one of the taller teams in college basketball, and they are one of the shorter teams, so we should have a solid advantage on the boards.
It may see surprising that a team that often playes two 7-footers at the same time isn't a tall team, but due to injury, the tall guys haven't played all that much.
Oregon is a better ball-handling team than we are, yet somehow their turnover margin isn't very good.
Oregon plays faster than we do, but they don't run much.
Neither team uses their bench that much. With all the injuries, Oregon doesn't have that much of a bench.
Advantage: Even
PLAYERS
Players
The Ducks combine four 5-star players with a ton of experienced, proven players from the transfer portal. In short, they are the perfect model of a modern college basketball team.
Yes that is Linda Ronstadt at the beginning of the clip.
Dana Altman seems to continue to be haunted by the injury curse. In addition to Dante and Bittle missing most of the season, Jesse Zarzuela, Keeshawn Barthelemy, and Mookie Cook are likley out for the rest of the season.
They are definitely out for our game. Zarzuela started the first 5 games of the season for the Ducks, averaging 10 points, before an injry ended his season. Highly-rated freshman Cook has only played in 5 games for a total of 32 mintues due to a recurring injury.
Also Nate Bittle missed their last game against USC. He is questionable for the UCLA game. Without Bittle the Ducks playes 7 players against USC, with a few minutes for Diawara.
Playing two games on the road with a 7-man rotation may mean the Ducks will be tired in the second half, particularly if they press a lot.
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebs / 40 Min. | Assists | Blks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | Notes | |
Jermaine Couisnard G | Sr 5 | 6-4 | 3-star 218 | 21 | 32 | 15 | 2.7 | 43% | 37% | 46% | 1.6 | |||
N'Faly Dante C | Sr 5 | 6-11 | 5-star 24 | 7 | 27 | 14 | 11.6 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 61% | 0.8 | May have a year of eligibiluty left after this year. | ||
Jackson Shelstad G | Fr | 6-0 | 5-star 24 | 17 | 30 | 13 | 2.8 | 48% | 42% | 42% | 1.3 | |||
Nate Bittle C | Jr | 7-0 | 5-star 16 | 5 | 17 | 10 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 48% | 33% | 31% | 1.3 | |
Sr | 6-2 | 3-star 458 | From Central Michigan | |||||||||||
Kario Oquendo G | Sr | 6-4 | Unranked | 21 | 18 | 10 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 52% | 44% | 34% | 1.8 | From Georgia | |
Kwame Evans Jr. F | Fr | 6-9 | 5-star 15 | 21 | 22 | 8 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 46% | 39% | 40% | 1.3 | |
Brennan Rigsby G | Jr | 6-3 | #2 JUCO | 21 | 24 | 8 | 1.3 | 47% | 42% | 51% | 1.5 | |||
Jadrian Tracey G | Jr | 6-5 | 3-star 444 | 21 | 24 | 7 | 1.6 | 40% | 37% | 42% | 1.6 | Transfer from St. Joseph's | ||
Mahamadou Diawara F | Sr 5 | 6-10 | 3-star 176 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 10.4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 53% | 0.8 | Transfer from the Stetson Hatters | ||
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Look at the A/TO column. They don't have a single PG with an astronomical ratio, but everyone except Dante and Diawara are solid ball-handlers. This is a verstile team where anyone can shoot or pass. They assist on over 52% their baskets.
When it comes to three-point shooting, everyone, excpet Danted and Diawara are capable of hitting ther three. Shelstad, Oquendo, and Rigsby are all shooting over 40% and most of the rest of the shooters are over 35%. We have to guard everyone on the arc. However, just about everyone is capable of beating with the dribble. Oregon is a hard team to defend.
Cousinard has been the only player who started game 1, who has played in every game this season. He does everything well and he is having an excellent season. He leads the team in scoring and steals. He has scored in double figures in the last 11 games with three games of 20 or more. Cousinard puts opposing defenses in the blender.
Dante seems to finally be healthy. He is their second leading scorer, without shooting threes, he doesn't take a ton of shots.
Shelstad is having a very strong freshman campaign, leading the team in scoring. IHe is a contender for Pac-12 freshman of the year. He has scored in double-figures 12 times this year and leads the team in assists. He score 20 against us in our first meeting. Paging Dylan Andrews!
Kario Oquendo LOVES driving to the hoop. He is very quick for his size and he gets to the rim with a frequency that Sebastian Mack can only dream about. That is why a 6-4 guy is shooting 52%. He is also a very good 3-point shooter, so you have to respect the his outside shot. He a really good athlete and outstanding leaper.
Kwame Evans is their other star freshman. Even though he only plays 22 minutes per game, he leads the team in rebounds and blocks. He is also #2 on the team in steals. At this point, he isn't a big-time scorer, but he has skills.
Brennan Rigsby is no relation to Eleanor Rigby, and he shoots much better than Eleanor. He is a very solid backup PG. He will occasionally score in double figures.
Jadrian Tracey has started 7 games for the Duck this season. He is a solid, experienced guard who can score.
Mahamadou Diawara transferred from the Stetson Hatters, but he is not all hat and no cattle. Sometimes he looks a bit lost out there, but he is capable of scoring a little, and he provides good rebounding and defense.
CONCLUSION
Have the Bruins really turned a corner? We are about to find out. We have yet to beat a team in the top half of the league. Now we meet one of the top two teams.
Dana Altman has once againg he is capable of putting a very good team together with a bunch of new players. Oregon has a really good roster, in spite of the injuries. No matter who was on the court, they have played well.
They defintinitely can score. However, their defense is a bit suspect and their depth could be a problem.
The computers and odds-makers see this as a close game, and I have not reason to argue with them.
In our first meeting, we lost by 5 in Eugene. We shot 3 of 19 on three point shots and still kept it close. We only out-rebounded they by 4 when neither Dante or Bittle played.
I think they keys to this game are making the three, defending the three and rebounding.
I think we are a lot better than we were in our first meeting. With all the injury issues, I am not sure Oregon has improved that much.
This is a very winnable game and it would be our best win of the year.
Go Bruins!